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Hurricane Joaquin 2015


Solak

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Mby is the big blue whole of nothing on this map! I consider that a win at this juncture! Never want to be bullseyed 3-6 days out! :)

I don't think we want what is over the eastern half of NC to come down here though. Another 1-2 inches of rain would be  nice though. By the way, the sun showed back up over here this afternoon.

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LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM TUESDAY...

...GROWING CONCERN THAT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FROM LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY COULD RESULT IN FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY CHALLENGING LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THE
INTERACTION OF MULTIPLE ANOMALOUS FEATURES INCLUDING A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH THAT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW AND TROPICAL
STORM JOAQUIN WILL DETERMINE. STILL THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC
HANDLE THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES QUITE SIMILARLY THROUGH 12Z SAT
WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SPREAD.

A SUMMARY OF THE BIG PICTURE PLAYERS DURING THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A
COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HAVE REACHED THE CAROLINA COAST BY THURSDAY
MORNING AS ITS PARENT UPPER TROUGH CLOSES OFF OVER THE WESTERN TN
VALLEY. A DEEP FLOW OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD FROM
THE CARIBBEAN AND SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IN PROXIMITY OF JOAQUIN INTO
THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE CLOSED LOW WILL DROP
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN AL/GA BY FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN LIFT
SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME ELONGATED WITH A NEGATIVE TILT BY SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING NORTH INTO THE CAROLINAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

DURING THE 72 HOUR PERIOD FROM 12Z THURSDAY TO 12Z SUNDAY
BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND EC PAINT AN ARC OF HEAVY RAIN FROM THE
CAPE FEAR/CRYSTAL COAST REGION NORTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC
INTO SW VIRGINIA. DURING THIS PERIOD THE GFS DROPS 6-9 INCHES OF
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WHILE THE ECMWF
DUMPS 7-12+ INCHES OF RAIN. THE MEAN OF GEFS 21 MEMBER ENSEMBLE
GENERALLY PROVIDES LESS THAN HALF OF OPERATIONAL GFS QPF WITH THE
OPERATIONAL GFS CLOSE TO THE WETTEST MEMBER. MMEFS ENSEMBLE HYDRO
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY AND
THAT LOCAL FLOODING ON STREAMS AND CREEKS AND IN URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS MAY BE THE MOST PROBLEMATIC. SEE THE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION
BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD
TO STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ON FRIDAY THAT WILL VEER AROUND AS
A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS DURING THE PERIOD WILL RANGE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES NOTABLY FOR THE THE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD AS THE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCE WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE CLOSED LOW. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND MOST OF THE GEFS
MEMBERS LIFT THE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY A COUPLE DAYS OF MUCH NEEDED DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONTRAST... THE EC VERY SLOWLY DRIFTS THE UPPER
LOW TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING RESULTING IN ANOTHER
DAY OR POSSIBLY TWO OF UNSETTLED WEATHER. USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE FORECAST WHICH PROVIDES SOME DRYING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...

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Well I was pretty convinced this was a OTS scenario when I laided down this am ( I am working nights ) and now it looks like the SW drift has changed up the ballgame a lot, basically it makes a OTS or further SE hit the two more likely scenarios......

 

This setup looks to possibly produce a classic PRE event over NC but without a actual landfall from the main low.....really crazy setup and these are the type of unusual and rare setups that can produce these major events. Really hope its wrong way to much rain the 7 day WPC QPF map would be a major flooding threat to 10's of millions of people

 

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The first thing that comes to mind here in eastern nc is what shaggy mentioned, hurricane Floyd. Not saying we would see that type of flooding but I always found it interesting how the trough set up and we had the very heavy rain well before the storm even got here; there's a radar loop on YouTube of hurricane floyd and it always amazes me watching it and seeing the trough interaction and axis of very heavy rains. Joaquin right now looks like something you'd expect to see at dmax, tonight will be interesting especially if shear relaxes.

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I'm in northern wake and don't want that 20 inch bullseye to slide east

Sent from my iPhone

good luck with whatever comes your way - was seeing today that NC, especially in the Piedmont and towards the mountains is all pretty wet and with the front coming through, tropical moisture on top of it would be pretty .... well .... not good (?)

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It won't. That's just foolishness, those totals.

Panovich is usually pretty hesistant on mentioning huge totals showing up in models run, but he actually mentioned on his latest FB vid about the chance of 15-20" totals from the Triad to the Triangle being "not out of the realm of possibility". I was surprised that he mentioned it on social media.

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I think it would be better to mention the possibility of those totals and for people to be aware of it than to be caught off guard.

Oh I agree, but coming from someone (Panovich) who normally scolds those that post clown maps on social media showing ridculous amounts of snowfall during winter storms, the fact that he mentioned it is telling.

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Panovich is usually pretty hesistant on mentioning huge totals showing up in models run, but he actually mentioned on his latest FB vid about the chance of 15-20" totals from the Triad to the Triangle being "not out of the realm of possibility". I was surprised that he mentioned it on social media.

Yeah I don't disagree that it's possible. It's just when models show extreme situations, I just remember things like blocking is usually weaker than forecast, tropical systems usually wind up farther east than forecast, and ULLs usuly don't dig as far south and are weaker than forecast. We'll see. :)

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Yeah I don't disagree that it's possible. It's just when models show extreme situations, I just remember things like blocking is usually weaker than forecast, tropical systems usually wind up farther east than forecast, and ULLs usuly don't dig as far south and are weaker than forecast. We'll see. :)

Agree for the most part, but the Snowaween snow last year, was modeled quite well! Blind squirrel ???
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