Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-DISCUSSION/OBS


bluewave

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 845
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Would have been worse if it were this weekend with the full moon tides.

Next weekend is in between the moons.

 

This Tuesday the 29th will be the peak of this astronomically high tide cycle. So depending on the

timing of any potential event, the highest astronomical tides will be closer to the beginning portion of it.

But even by Saturday the 3rd, the tides will still be a foot above the level it will be between moon phases.

 

Sandy Hook peak daily tides

 

9/27....6.24

9/28....6.35

9/29...6.46...peak

9/30....6.38

10/01..6.16

10/2....5.86

10/03..5.55

10/7....4.55..lowest tide between phases

 

Here's what different tide levels are ....astronomical+ surge... impacts are for Sandy Hook.

Moderate impacts start at 7.7 feet. 

 

http://www.weather.gov/media/phi/monmou.pdf

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Careful with those hurricane models, then have been overdone this year on tropical development.  with that said, the water is quite warm, so anything that gets going could go to town

The strength of the tropical system is going to be irrelevant, assuming that anything coming up here would be undergoing extra-tropical transition as it approached the area. The models are deepening the system once it reaches the mid-latitudes and begins interacting with the frontal boundary. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The strength of the tropical system is going to be irrelevant, assuming that anything coming up here would be undergoing extra-tropical transition as it approached the area. The models are deepening the system once it reaches the mid-latitudes and begins interacting with the frontal boundary. 

Looks like our drought is going to end with a bang.  1-2 inches tomorrow/wed and then something big after that.  Finally.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This system is looking Gloria-esque with the pressure and location. Gloria's maximum winds gusts was an 85 mph one at Islip upon landfall. With maximum knots at 70, we could see a gust close to what Gloria brought.

 

Hmm? Gloria was at 961 mb when it passed 40N. I don't see anything close to that on the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not saying it is right, just pointing out that some guidance is suggesting a strong cyclone at our latitude. 

 

My Uncle Freddy says the east end is due for a hurricane, but I don't post that to the thread and you shouldn't be posting the HWRF, especially without context.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The strength of the tropical system is going to be irrelevant, assuming that anything coming up here would be undergoing extra-tropical transition as it approached the area. The models are deepening the system once it reaches the mid-latitudes and begins interacting with the frontal boundary. 

 

My, if the strength of a tropical system were irrelevant, I guess we can decommission the NHC! 

 

Noting your caveat about extra-tropical v. tropical (the so called neutercane argument)...there are plenty of extra-tropical cyclones whose intensity made all the difference...Sandy amongst them.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...