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WxChallenge 2015-16


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Day 1 Forecasting guys! I'm kpap88 again.

And if you guys are interested in checking out some HRRR output centered on the WxChallenge location, feel free to use my page below :)

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#wxch

Good luck everyone!

That HRRR site is one of my go to sites especially for Oswego, glad to see it updated for CA!
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85/61/18

 

Figured high would be a little warmer than today...actually had 86 but lowered when today only hit 84. Low I was unsure of...the hi-res models I looked at did a good job of keeping lows up last night and are cooler tonight, and there shouldn't be many clouds tonight and there were last night, so I went cooler for the low. Winds are a bit complicated with multiple valleys to potentially help funnel, but figured they'd be a little higher than today. I could see 20+ knots but I wasn't quite that confident :P

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Went 83/62/22

 

Was not extremely comfortable with the temp forecasts. Some of the hi-res models were several degrees cooler with the max than what they have for today...the GFS and NAM both appear to be about 2 degrees cooler, and have slightly cooler mid-level air and slightly shallower mixing that today. The GFS MOS which has been doing well with maxs is also a degree cooler. The Euro was actually a degree warmer. With a slightly cooler airmass on the GFS and NAM decided to shave a little off of today's high. Thought about going warmer for the low, but GFS MOS which has also done well with mins came in with 62. The winds last night stayed mainly south and will be more NNW tonight, which may be a bit of a drainage flow, so I figured they may be cooler than this morning. But I still don't have a good feel for the area's topographical influences, so I may be wrong. The pressure gradient will tighten tomorrow...winds today haven't come up too much yet (but still may), and climo as discussed above really likes a NNW flow here, so I went aggressive.

 

Today's max did get to 85, so if the wind comes up higher I could still finish at or a tad above consensus for today, and I really like the wind play for tomorrow.

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