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WxChallenge 2015-16


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Went 71/51/20 for tomorrow.

I was fairly torn on all three variables. I can't find any recent days where the max temp got more than 17C warmer than the 700mb temps, and with 700mb temps of around +4C expected by 0z Wednesday that gives a high of around 70F. The GFS MOS was also never more than 1F too low on the high last week, and has 69F. On the other hand, they should mix as well as any day last week if not better, and should be sunny. The Euro, 4km NAM and another couple of hi-res models had highs of 72-73F for highs...if anything they ran too cool most days last week (although the Euro was generally ok). Sort of took a blend of these ideas for the high. For the low, dew points are in the upper 40's and for a good portion of the night they'll have clouds. Winds don't look too strong tonight and if they clear late it won't take much to get down to near 50, so I didn't want to go warmer than guidance for the low. The pressure gradient looks weaker than most days last week, but the NAM has a decent uptick in the low level winds out of the NNW tomorrow evening as do most hi-res models, so I gambled high for the wind.

The way I saw it was they hit 74F on a good mixing day Thursday with 700 mb temps of about 6C. Models are showing about 3 or 3.5C by late tomorrow afternoon but I figured they could be a bit too low with the ridge building in so I took 1.5C off of what they got to this past Thursday.

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They've definitely had a tendency to do that. I'm personally hoping for another couple knots since I went 20 for today, but we'll see if I can get that.

 

I went 14 lol so I hope nothing more.  

 

I already had a horrid day...3F too warm on the low and 4F too low on the high.  The last two forecasting days really killed me b/c I was 3F off on the high last time too...other than that I was within +/-1 of either the high or low at worst.  

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