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Severe Weather Threat for 9/12


Brick Tamland

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DISCUSSION...AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE ERN U.S.   FROM THE W...FORCING FOR ASCENT IS LIKEWISE INCREASING ACROSS THE   MCD AREA. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY WITHIN A NARROW WARM   SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE W. THIS AREA IS   CHARACTERIZED BY SFC TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...AND   DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD   COVER FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD ALLOW FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF   DESTABILIZATION...AND MLCAPE HAS GENERALLY INCREASED TO 500-1000   J/KG GIVEN POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINING OVER THE REGION.   ACROSS NRN NC AND S-CNTRL/SERN VA...LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE MOSTLY   VEERED TO THE SW...AND ARE NOW GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH HEIGHT.   THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THIS REGION MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS FOR THE NEXT   SEVERAL HOURS...MAINLY OWING TO STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND   CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFT PROCESSES. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND   35-45 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACROSS THE SRN   DELMARVA PENINSULA...LOW-LEVEL WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE SE IN   THE VICINITY OF A SFC WARM FRONT...AND A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND   FIELD WITH HEIGHT PER RECENT KDOX VWP SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A   SHORT-TERM ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THIS AREA IN ADDITION TO   SOME WIND THREAT. HOWEVER...THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT   CHARACTERIZED BY POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 DEG C/KM WILL   LIKELY LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND THE RESULTING SEVERE THREAT OVER   BOTH OF THESE REGIONS. THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE REMAINS UNLIKELY   THOUGH THE AFTERNOON.
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