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John1122

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More Halloween cold? They moved the Kentucky game up and the flakes may still be flying in Lexington. Last year was miserable on Hallowwen.

If you wanna believe the control this far out,it would be snowing in the mountains late next Wed-Thursday morn,but there is a warm nose 925mb,so you need to be more or less 3k ft up

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Control last night is looking like what the weeklies have been hinting at around the 26-27 of the month,other than timing issues.A slow moving cold front,ridge to the east,system coming out the Gulf that rides it with a - tilted trough.Potential is there for some heavy rains and flooding

 

Still a chance for some storms mid week, next week.Go up a time frame to 174 hrs the 850's are 65 kts towards Chatty area.70-75 KTS the plateau into tri area.My hodos are off the chart for us in  Mid Tn.Lots of shear to work with.Looking rather windy anyways,wetter towards the western Valley,possibly up to 4"rain,on todays 12z run

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The Euro went back to the W this afternoon.Position is fairly close to the 12z GFS early Wed.,it's still stronger than the GFS.My surface gust map shows 50-55kts for all of Mid.Tn.,early morn into the afternoon Wed on the Euro.Best moisture is still showing towards the western part of the Valley on the models.The NW parts is in a moderate drought,so this should help that area out.

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Confused what the WPC shows today,they still have the LP, day3 off the LA coast,day 4 they drift it into the GOM,day 5 it's back towards the gulf shore LA/MS,day 6 it's in NE Ga riding the cold front?..

 

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=6&fcolor=wbg

 

Edit:Now back in Arkansas today,where the models show it

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MJO is gonna get some stronger signals later on towards the Indian Ocean.Going into p2-3,but there is still alot of convection being shown through the 1st week of Nov.There should be a ridge like the EPS shows to our east and the Euro shows a slow moving front that stalls out over the western Valley that could be a dumpage of rain

 

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MJO is gonna get some stronger signals later on towards the Indian Ocean.Going into p2-3,but there is still alot of convection being shown on our side through the 1st week of Nov.There should be a ridge like the EPS shows to our east and the Euro shows a slow moving front that stalls out over the western Valley d-8-10 that could be a dumpage of rain

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There is our challenge for the winter. Looking upstream a pineapple express is established downstream of neutral heights around Hawaii. Ridging is forecast all across the North Pacific, but highest heights Aleutians not GOA. Pineapple X below is a classic West trough. When the Southeast Canada ridge is not going nuts, we might go Southeast USA ridge. We will fight this battle frequently I'm afraid. Perhaps deep into winter it will only take one brief cold shot under a slug of moisture. First things first. I hope that SER is clean because I want the sun back!

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Both the GFS and Euro has a front moving through the Valley towards the end of the work week.After that they go opposite directions.Euro is showing the front coming through then lifts back up as a warm front and develops a low pressure system from our SW  then that comes through Tn.This would be a big rain maker for the Valley if it's right

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Still no freeze in sight on the GFS. Coldest temp through Nov. 21 is 33. I've never had to mow grass in November before, but I likely will next week. It hasn't stopped growing.

 

Yep, I have lettuce bolting up to my waist... in November.  If I'd known it would be this warm I'd have planted another round of maters.

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Hopefully changes though coming up,AO and NAO both going negative in the next several days

Just looked at CPC...maybe they go negative. Maybe. Looks like they are struggling to go past neutral. The get slightly negative late in those outlooks. The PNA is neutral to very slightly negative. I think a pattern change is possible but far from certain. WxSouth seems to think later this month it happens. I can't say I disagree. Right now every shot of cold is ushered out quickly. The experimental CPC 3-4 week forecast is warm for the East. I just don't see many mechanisms to get the cold south and to have it hold. Until then, enjoy some great temps.

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Just looked at CPC...maybe they go negative. Maybe. Looks like they are struggling to go past neutral. The get slightly negative late in those outlooks. The PNA is neutral to very slightly negative. I think a pattern change is possible but far from certain. WxSouth seems to think later this month it happens. I can't say I disagree. Right now every shot of cold is ushered out quickly. The experimental CPC 3-4 week forecast is warm for the East. I just don't see many mechanisms to get the cold south and to have it hold. Until then, enjoy some great temps.

 

I am going to try not to post too much on this if it continues through the winter (because the haters are going to start coming out of the woodwork!) but the pattern on both ensembles is pretty stable through Day 15...we are probably not going to torch based on El Nino climo but much of the eastern and midwest US will for the next few weeks and on into early/mid December...but that should not be a shocker to most of you...you should not be expecting much until the latter half of Jan at the earliest anyway, right?

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I am going to try not to post too much on this if it continues through the winter (because the haters are going to start coming out of the woodwork!) but the pattern on both ensembles is pretty stable through Day 15...we are probably not going to torch based on El Nino climo but much of the eastern and midwest US will for the next few weeks and on into early/mid December...but that should not be a shocker to most of you...you should not be expecting much until the latter half of Jan at the earliest anyway, right?

Just as long as we don't go warm and dry i can live with that

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I am going to try not to post too much on this if it continues through the winter (because the haters are going to start coming out of the woodwork!) but the pattern on both ensembles is pretty stable through Day 15...we are probably not going to torch based on El Nino climo but much of the eastern and midwest US will for the next few weeks and on into early/mid December...but that should not be a shocker to most of you...you should not be expecting much until the latter half of Jan at the earliest anyway, right?

You know, this winter will be a good test for our subforum. I don't think we have too many haters. So, keep posting. You and Jeff are down to earth mets. And yes, the pattern looks very stable. I am only checking the GFS once per day, nothing else. Looks the same each day. My grass is still growing. I remember during the 90s during some of those Nino years, the outdoor pool at UT opened in January. Not a fan of this pattern, but it is no surprise this time like you say. Strong Nino winters require great patience for those who like snow. If we get many chances at all, mid to late winter is the time for sure.

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We'll just have to see where things go, out of the 5 strong/very strong Nino's since 1950, 3 have featured December snowfalls in the area, including both very strong Nino's, and two did not. Overall, they are fairly warm. So don't expect much prolonged cold before January for the most part. Though from Christmas until New Years of 1997/98 was a cold and snowy stretch around here.

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They may drift over from another regional forum...the winter of 2013 is not forgotten!  :whistle:   But you are correct...great bunch of posters here and even if it is a bit slow until we get some real weather, the quality is always good! 

 

Looking forward to riding this one out with y'all (as usual more as a lurker than a poster). We will get a few chances during mid-late winter, though I do believe this winter will be even more elevation dependent than usual. It will be an enjoyable ride, regardless.

 

When the football season ends, for me it becomes SNOW SEASON...with a little hockey thrown in. 

 

Thanks for all you do, folks!

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