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Predict the Date: First Bonafide Nor'Easter of the Season


Rtd208

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  • 3 weeks later...

All these October choices lead me to believe that people have seen "The Perfect Storm" one too many times...

 

 

I'll go with an indeterminate date during the month of November...

 

 

Also, the Central Park should see measurable snow within 11 weeks from today...I guess that would take us to 12 December 2015.

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So does today win?

 

I'm inclined to say yes. It's hard to look past the lack of a closed surface low, but the real-world effects have been more substantial than from most true "first" nor'easters I think. Check out that Fire Island erosion video that Bluewave posted in the October thread, plus some of the coastal flooding photos being posted on twitter (eg. this from Maryland, Virginia, Jersey).

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In all seriousness... why isn't there any real cyclogenesis going on? There's an amplifying upper trough, a divergent jet streak region over the Mid-Atlantic, a distinct thermal boundary, and what appears to be a nice baroclinic leaf structure.

Is the 'cane throwing a wrench in it?

It's off SC
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