Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Here's the event write-up for Aug 12th (should be the same event): http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20040812/ That is what I was talking about. I just saw the part about the one F1 tornado. I missed the other three on the map at the coast. I guess that is what they are talking about. Maybe just had the date off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 First 40's of the year look very possible for the high country this weekend and early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 In the medium range, the12z GFS does have dew points dropping into the 40s for western portions of the SE; including most of GA. Easter parts of the SE will battle on low the dew points can drop. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=09&model_dd=08&model_init_hh=12&fhour=150¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Yep Sunday we are expecting low 70s with nearly clear skies and a dp in the 40s. also possible we drop down into the 40s for lows in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 First 40's of the year look very possible for the high country this weekend and early next week. In the high country ? Heck, there could be 40s in Central GA and AL ! I would think it would be in the 20s or 30s up there if it's that cold down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 In the high country ? Heck, there could be 40s in Central GA and AL ! I would think it would be in the 20s or 30s up there if it's that cold down here.Local news is saying low to mid 40s for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 In the high country ? Heck, there could be 40s in Central GA and AL ! I would think it would be in the 20s or 30s up there if it's that cold down here.Local news is saying low to mid 40s for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 In the high country ? Heck, there could be 40s in Central GA and AL ! I would think it would be in the 20s or 30s up there if it's that cold down here.Add 10 degrees to this hyped " cool down " ! Why would the models start being right now!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Local news is saying low to mid 40s for usI hit 48 degrees last month already but I think some upper 30s could be scattered in parts of the best radiation areas. It's going to feel great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINASFRIDAY NIGHT AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGS SOUTHEASTTOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVERCENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK NORTHWARDINTO VIRGINIA SATURDAY EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEPOSSIBLE AS THE SURFACE LOW GATHERS STRENGTH...PARTICULARLY ACROSSCENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EVENING..SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Open windows are just a few days away: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...DEEP UPPER TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH SUCHTHAT SURFACE FRONT LIKELY TO BE EAST OF RAH FCST AREA BY SUNDAYMORNING...ALONG WITH DEEPER CONVECTION AND HIGHER CHANCES FORPRECIP. 12Z GFS ESPECIALLY FAST WITH THIS. HOWEVER AS THE UPPERTROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST...COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT COULD SUPPORT VERY SHALLOW CONVECTIVESHOWERS... VERY UNLIKELY TO BE ANY THUNDER...MAINLY FOR THENORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IF MORE PROGRESSIVETRENDS CONTINUE MAY EVENTUALLY DROP PRECIP CHANCES ALTOGETHER FORSUNDAY. MAIN STORY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS AND WITH ANABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE AT LEAST 5F BELOW NORMAL.70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS WELLNORTHEAST OVER NEW ENGLAND AND IS REPLACED BY A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGEWITH AN ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILLKEEP DEEPER MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH LOWERHUMIDITIES AND COOL OVERNIGHTS BUT SLOWLY RECOVERING MAX TEMPS BACKINTO THE LOWER 80S BY MID WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Open windows are just a few days away: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 We are expecting lows around 60 for next Monday thru Wednesday mornings with dew points in the 40's. Hurray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Indeed, I like what RAH has to say: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXTWEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF THE FIRST NOTICEABLYCONTINENTAL POLAR AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLEATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID WEEK.WHILE THE ASSOCIATED DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE FROM THE MIDDLE 70SON AVG SUN-MON...TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OFTHE WEEK...THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LAG BY ABOUT A DAY...WITHTHE COOLEST LOWS...AND NEAR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...MON NIGHT.LOWS AT THAT TIME IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE PROBABLE - ACONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS INDEED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 RAH still talking about a severe threat for Saturday night, but sounds like it should be for a small area. WHILE THE OVERALL KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS STILL APPEARFAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THEPROBABLE PRESENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL JET EXIT REGION EMERGING ACROSSTHE SOUTHEAST AND COUPLING WITH THE POLAR JET ENTRANCE REGION OVERTHE CAROLINAS...THE CHARACTER OF THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR WILL BESENSITIVE TO SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE CONFIGURATION/STRENGTH AND TIMINGOF THE TROUGH ALOFT --AND-- THE MOST OPTIMUM SHEAR IS FORECAST TOLAG THE WARM SECTOR AND NOT SPREAD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS UNTILSAT NIGHT. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT SHEAR VECTORSWILL BE ORIENTED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...WHICH WOULD FAVOR A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH POSSIBLEEMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES BY SAT EVENING.ASSOCIATED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT...ALBEITINCREASINGLY ELONGATED EARLY SAT NIGHT...SO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR--AND ANY CONSEQUENT TORNADO THREAT-- WOULD BE MOST LIKELY CONFINEDTO A SMALL AREA IMMEDIATELY NE OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW WHERESURFACE FLOW WOULD BE LOCALLY BACKED. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDSWOULD OTHERWISE BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.ALTHOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THEMERGED FRONT OVERNIGHT SAT...SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHSCATTERED INSTABILITY/COLD POOL ALOFT-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS ONSUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PIEDMONT...WHERELOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RESIDUALLY HIGHER AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOWLESS VEERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 Even though it won't last for long, Sunday is going to be a true fall day. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows near 50. Bright sunny skies and low humidity. Perfect football weather this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Even though it won't last for long, Sunday is going to be a true fall day. Highs in the low to mid 70s. Lows near 50. Bright sunny skies and low humidity. Perfect football weather this weekend. It will get warm again but we'll also start seeing more and more of this type of weather in the coming weeks. Fall will not be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted September 10, 2015 Author Share Posted September 10, 2015 It will get warm again but we'll also start seeing more and more of this type of weather in the coming weeks. Fall will not be denied. yeah that's true I think summer weather is over. I doubt we hit 90 again and probably not many days over 85 left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I'm officially in a severe drought now. This is sparklecity's version of severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 I'm officially in a severe drought now. This is sparklecity's version of severe weather. Look at the bright side, all that dry ground will possible enhance radiational cooling early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 It will get warm again but we'll also start seeing more and more of this type of weather in the coming weeks. Fall will not be denied.Winter can and will though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Winter can and will though! Lol -- I wouldn't have dared said that about winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted September 10, 2015 Share Posted September 10, 2015 Indeed, I like what RAH has to say: .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 405 AM THURSDAY... HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL RISE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE MAINTENANCE OF THE FIRST NOTICEABLY CONTINENTAL POLAR AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES EARLY-MID WEEK. WHILE THE ASSOCIATED DAYTIME HIGHS WILL MODERATE FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ON AVG SUN-MON...TO AROUND 80 DEGREES OR SO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THE LOWEST OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LAG BY ABOUT A DAY...WITH THE COOLEST LOWS...AND NEAR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...MON NIGHT. LOWS AT THAT TIME IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ARE PROBABLE - A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS INDEED. I like it! GFS 12z hit 50/51 for Mon/Tue, GEFS mean 51/53... GFS 2mT min for Boone, NC has been harping on 37 Tues morning for a while now but just picked up 37 for Mon as well...pretty polar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Might hit the upper 30's here for lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I like it! GFS 12z hit 50/51 for Mon/Tue, GEFS mean 51/53... GFS 2mT min for Boone, NC has been harping on 37 Tues morning for a while now but just picked up 37 for Mon as well...pretty polar. Good to see you're posting again! Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 It will get warm again but we'll also start seeing more and more of this type of weather in the coming weeks. Fall will not be denied. Soooooooo looking forward to this cool down this weekend!!!! Only problem is indeed the big warm up right back to where we are now. GSP looking at mid 80s over the next 2 weeks after that with lows in 60s. That is going to be absolutely torturous after this weekend, and not fallish in the least. Looking for that permanent cool down!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lookingnorth Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Soooooooo looking forward to this cool down this weekend!!!! Only problem is indeed the big warm up right back to where we are now. GSP looking at mid 80s over the next 2 weeks after that with lows in 60s. That is going to be absolutely torturous after this weekend, and not fallish in the least. Looking for that permanent cool down!!At least our averages are dropping and our days are getting shorter. The heat can't last forever.Also, I don't think heat in September is all that unusual. If we can get cold in March, I don't see why we can't get hot in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 I'm officially in a severe drought now. This is sparklecity's version of severe weather. Hmm, that's funny. I live in Wilson, NC (~ 50 miles east of Raleigh) and my perception is that it has been much wetter the last three weeks or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Long discussion from RAH overnight about the severe storm threat tomorrow. The threat is still there, but of course there is model disagreement. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY...THE MODELS OVERALL REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-MS VALLEYBY EARLY SAT...BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY THROUGHSUNDAY...THOUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. TO ACCOUNTFOR THESE DIFFERENCES AND STILL RELATIVELY LARGE MODEL SPREAD FOR ADAY 2 FORECAST...THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION IS PREFERRED AND OFFERS ACOMPROMISE SOLUTION BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN MODELS AND SLOWERCMC AND UKMET. HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT/FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GRADUALLYINCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF BOTH THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AND ACOUPLED SUB-TROPICAL JET EXIT REGION EMERGING ACROSS THE CAROLINASON SAT. MULTIPLE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONSEQUENTLYDEVELOP/DEEPEN IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS - ONE ALONG A WEAKWARM FRONT/LEE TROUGH OVER NORTH-CENTRAL NC...AND ANOTHER ALONG ASECONDARY COLD FRONT INVOF THE NC FOOTHILLS EARLY SAT. LOW PRESSUREWILL THEN CONSOLIDATE AND TRACK NE THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTICSTATES THROUGH SAT NIGHT.ONGOING MORNING CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THECLOSE APPROACH OF A LEAD DISTURBANCE/MCV NOW OVER THE MID-MSVALLEY...AHEAD OF BROADER HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYNOPTICTROUGH...AND INVOF A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIKELY TO STRETCH NEAR THEVA/NC BORDER EARLY SAT. OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE--SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AND IN THE FORM OF BROKEN CLUSTERS/SEMI-DISCRETE MODES-- AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT DURING THEAFTERNOON AND EVENING...BENEATH STRENGTHENING BACKGROUND FORCINGOUTLINED ABOVE.WHILE THE OVERALL KINEMATICS AND THERMODYNAMICS STILL APPEARFAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE...CONTINUED LARGER THAN AVGMODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE UPPERTROUGH...AS WELL AS QUESTIONS REGARDING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTORDESTABILIZATION OWING TO EARLY DAY MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD COVER...LENDHIGHER THAN AVG FORECAST UNCERTAINTY TO THE TIMING/EVOLUTION OFCONVECTION SAT AFT-EVE.IT STILL APPEARS THAT SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED LARGELYPARALLEL TO THE PRIMARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...WHICH WOULD FAVORQUASI-LINEAR/BROKEN LINE CLUSTER(S) AND SOME SEMI-DISCRETE MODESOWING TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER FLOW...WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES INTHE 35-45 KT RANGE SAT INCREASING WITH TIME INTO THE 40-60 KT RANGEEARLY SAT NIGHT...THOUGH THAT INCREASE MAY BE RENDERED MOOT SINCETHE CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO LARGELY OUTPACE THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT.ASSOCIATED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT...ALBEITLONG...SO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ANY CONSEQUENT TORNADO THREATWOULD BE MOST LIKELY INVOF THE WARM FRONT/TRIPLE POINT RETREATINGNORTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...WITH AN OTHERWISE PRIMARY THREATOF DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS...AND HAIL IN SEMI-DISCRETE(ROTATING) STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 TWC has me down to 51 on Sunday night , that would probably give me upper 40s and that would be amazeballs ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted September 11, 2015 Share Posted September 11, 2015 Long discussion from RAH overnight about the severe storm threat tomorrow. The threat is still there, but of course there is model disagreement. SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 420 AM FRIDAY... THE MODELS OVERALL REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A MID- UPPER TROUGH WILL SHARPEN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MID-MS VALLEY BY EARLY SAT...BEFORE CLOSING OFF OVER THE OH VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY...THOUGH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES REMAIN. TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE DIFFERENCES AND STILL RELATIVELY LARGE MODEL SPREAD FOR A DAY 2 FORECAST...THE 00Z ECMWF[/url LOL. Brick is a trollbot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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