OK/AR/KS/MO Winter 2015-16 Discussion

[OKwx2K4]

Meteorologist Doug Heady had his winter forecast tonight.

Cycle is about 53 days.

16" is average snow....

He thinks whole country above average temps for the winter... Above normal precip in our area.

He thinks 16-20" snow...

1-2 ice storms

2-3 big snow events...

Lot of rainy systems.

Sounds kinda 'meh'. If it's one of those years where I-44 north and west wins every time and I get ice, sleet and rain we might as well just skip this winter. Lol. I really don't think that will happen though.

[Chinook]

Meteorologist Doug Heady had his winter forecast tonight. 

 

Cycle is about 53 days.

 

16" is average snow....

 

He thinks whole country above average temps for the winter... Above normal precip in our area.

 

He thinks 16-20" snow...

 

1-2 ice storms

2-3 big snow events...

 

Lot of rainy systems.

So is that a Quasi-Bimonthly Oscillation ???

I just looked up a little history about Springfield MO. The snowfall records are very easy to find on the NWS web page. The max 1-day snowfall of all time was 18" on 2/20/1912 and they also list a 2" on 2/21/1912 as the record for that day. It seems rather obvious then that Springfield got 20" or more on Feb 20-21 1912. Looking at the 20th Century V2 reanalysis and there was a 995mb surface low in Louisiana that day. If you want extra validation on that, I suppose the NWS weather maps archive would be a good way to check.

 

I think this will generate the chart

 

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.20thc.hour.pl?var=Pressure+at+Mean+Sea+Level&level=1000mb&version=1&iy[1]=1912&im[1]=02&id[1]=21&ih[1]=00&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&ih[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&ih[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&ih[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&ih[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&ih[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&ih[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&ih[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&ih[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&ih[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&ih[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&ih[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&ih[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&ih[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&ih[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&ih[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&ih[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&ih[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&ih[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&ih[20]=&monr1=1&dayr1=1&hour1=0&monr2=1&dayr2=1&hour2=0&iyr[1]=&filenamein=&lag=0&plotlabel=&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded+w%2Foverlying+Contours&type=1&output_type=1&scale=150&label=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&scal_vect=4&proj=USA&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

[OKwx2K4]

So is that a Quasi-Bimonthly Oscillation ???

I just looked up a little history about Springfield MO. The snowfall records are very easy to find on the NWS web page. The max 1-day snowfall of all time was 18" on 2/20/1912 and they also list a 2" on 2/21/1912 as the record for that day. It seems rather obvious then that Springfield got 20" or more on Feb 20-21 1912. Looking at the 20th Century V2 reanalysis and there was a 995mb surface low in Louisiana that day. If you want extra validation on that, I suppose the NWS weather maps archive would be a good way to check.

I think this will generate the chart

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/cgi-bin/data/composites/comp.20thc.hour.pl?var=Pressure+at+Mean+Sea+Level&level=1000mb&version=1&iy[1]=1912&im[1]=02&id[1]=21&ih[1]=00&iy[2]=&im[2]=&id[2]=&ih[2]=&iy[3]=&im[3]=&id[3]=&ih[3]=&iy[4]=&im[4]=&id[4]=&ih[4]=&iy[5]=&im[5]=&id[5]=&ih[5]=&iy[6]=&im[6]=&id[6]=&ih[6]=&iy[7]=&im[7]=&id[7]=&ih[7]=&iy[8]=&im[8]=&id[8]=&ih[8]=&iy[9]=&im[9]=&id[9]=&ih[9]=&iy[10]=&im[10]=&id[10]=&ih[10]=&iy[11]=&im[11]=&id[11]=&ih[11]=&iy[12]=&im[12]=&id[12]=&ih[12]=&iy[13]=&im[13]=&id[13]=&ih[13]=&iy[14]=&im[14]=&id[14]=&ih[14]=&iy[15]=&im[15]=&id[15]=&ih[15]=&iy[16]=&im[16]=&id[16]=&ih[16]=&iy[17]=&im[17]=&id[17]=&ih[17]=&iy[18]=&im[18]=&id[18]=&ih[18]=&iy[19]=&im[19]=&id[19]=&ih[19]=&iy[20]=&im[20]=&id[20]=&ih[20]=&monr1=1&dayr1=1&hour1=0&monr2=1&dayr2=1&hour2=0&iyr[1]=&filenamein=&lag=0&plotlabel=&labelc=Color&labels=Shaded+w%2Foverlying+Contours&type=1&output_type=1&scale=150&label=0&cint=&lowr=&highr=&scal_vect=4&proj=USA&xlat1=&xlat2=&xlon1=&xlon2=&custproj=Cylindrical+Equidistant&level1=1000mb&level2=10mb&Submit=Create+Plot

There's a documented 4 foot (in some locales) snowstorm over parts of the Ozarks during that time frame so the 18"+2" is probably correct there. I believe the largest amounts from that storm fell in southern MO and northern AR.

[JoMo]

Seems pretty average. Surprised he went above avg everywhere. But hey I would take his forecast this yr.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G900A

 

Yeah, makes sense. We don't do too great in the snow department in strong El Nino's. December looks pretty meh, so hopefully by mid-late Dec we can get some snow. Otherwise, hopefully we get an active January. 

[JoMo]

Here's his forecast and graphics.

 

http://headypattern.com/nov-24th-blog-my-winter-forecast/

[JoMo]

Heck of an ice storm to the west...

 

[OKwx2K4]

Definitely not jealous of the folks to my northwest on this storm. That's ugly. I'm pretty much dreading the 5+ inches rainstorm I'm about to get though. Will effectively end my hunting season tomorrow.

[NwWhiteOut]

So I guess this looks to be a washout for sure, well it could have been worst and been the nasty freezing rain. Temps are close a few nights. I hope thats not the way this winter will go, freezing rain! I hate the stuff and been through enough bad ones to know how dangerous they can be! Happy Thanksgiving to you all now, I probably wont be here the next few days to say so.

[JoMo]

Even in 'bad' patterns, you can still get a freak event. It looks very Nino. 

 

[jcwxguy]

ill trade you weather the next few days here for there, not looking forward to the freezing rain tomorrow.

[JoMo]

ill trade you weather the next few days here for there, not looking forward to the freezing rain tomorrow.

 

How much are you expecting? Looks like NWS says 0.1-0.3", which isn't too bad. Still no fun for the holiday. 

[jcwxguy]

.25 with snow on top

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[JoMo]

This is the GFS run tonight, this is nearly exactly what the Euro weekly control run looked like at the end of it's run on Monday. Only it was around Christmas when it had this and not the 11th.

 

[JoMo]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. Be safe if you're traveling to the west with the ice storm and watch out for flooding in our area!

 

The JMA monthly updated today. Week 3 and 4 are looking better, and in line with other guidance like the Euro weeklies with the ridging lifting north across Canada. The Aleutian low backing off more to the west and the jet undercutting across the southern US. 

 

Euro weeklies later!

 

 

[MoWeatherguy]

Happy thanksgiving all!

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[OKwx2K4]

Happy Thanksgiving to all my weather friends!

[JoMo]

Euro Weeklies:

 

Going out to Dec 27th today. Looks like the +AO continues, with the +PNA moving to near neutral much of the time. Control run again looks pretty similar as the ensemble mean. After the extreme warmth and Canadian ridging breaks in mid-Dec, it looks to get pretty stormy, especially in the western and central/southern US for awhile, for probably at least a week and that would include Christmas. The control has at least 1 big storm passing near us in mid-Dec still. Control run ends with probably temporary ridging ahead of the next system digging into the west coast. All sorts of storminess over Canada and Alaska. 

 

Overall, looks pretty stormy after the big heatwave coming up. Mid-Dec on still looks good.

 

850 mb temps go below normal around the 16th or so but we'll see what the 2m temps show in an hour or so.

 

UPDATE: Weeklies temps look to cool after the big warmup breaks around mid-month. Coldest temps will be west of here across the west and southwest. Doesn't really look like any huge Arctic outbreaks though, which isn't surprising because El-Nino. 

[MoWeatherguy]

Good update thxs.

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[OKwx2K4]

Thank you JoMo for the updates again. Hope no one gets flooded over the next couple of days. Also hope everyone had a good Thanksgiving.

[NJ_Ken]

I said this in the other thread but it merits mentioning here. If you are driving or planning to drive on I-40 or I-35 heading north or west through Oklahoma, be prepared. In the OKC metro, sleet is mixing with the rain and surface temps are hovering right at or just above freezing. In the immediate OKC area, icing appears limited so far (but I have not been out checking every bridge either so best to assume the worst). Just north and west of OKC (and we are talking literally a few miles), icing is apparently already getting serious. If temps drop literally another degree (and they likely will at some point this afternoon or evening), things will also start getting ugly in and on the south and east sides of the OKC metro too. Be aware out there.

[natecast]

Local media reporting that NWS is about to expand the Ice Storm Warning further east to include the OKC metro overnight.  Good call by other locals here on the board with cold air bullying its way further than modeled in previous days.  30-31 tonight with a large batch of moderate rain moving through and gusty winds....not a good recipe for everyone keeping the lights on.

[NJ_Ken]

Natecast: I don't know if you've been out but in the past few hours things have gone downhill fast on the north side of the OKC metro (especially the northwest side of the metro). The one saving grace might be that, for now, we have more sleet than freezing rain falling. Not that sleet is good, but it is better than freezing rain. I actually drove downtown about an hour ago, and there is a big difference between there and here, though, with the sun setting and temps still possibly falling another degree or two, I suspect most if the metro, including the south and east sides, will see conditions deteriorate rapidly over the next few hours. I am thinking this will be a great night to hunker down and watch Mother Nature do her thing from the window.

[natecast]

Latest run of the HRRR puts down 1" of freezing rain accumulation over the next 12 hours across the I-44 corridor, with heaviest totals just SW of OKC metro.  Ouch.

[OKwx2K4]

Definitely shaping up to be a fairly significant weather event out there. Be safe everyone.

[JoMo]

I do worry about the storm tracks in winter though. I worry about the scenarios where the storm tracks right over us, giving snow to areas in western and central Kansas but rain to our area. That seems very common in strong El Nino's. Also worry that the storms will track too far south along the Gulf coast. Hopefully we can split the middle a few times.

[packbacker]

Anyone live in this frzn area shown on RGEM, don't recall ever seeing that significant a freezing rain accumulation on a model before.

[NJ_Ken]

Next wave of moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet incoming to OKC metro as I type. This wave could literally last all night for most of us, and every drop looks to be frozen in some form or other. It is going to be an ugly, ugly, UGLY night.

[JoMo]

Anyone live in this frzn area shown on RGEM, don't recall ever seeing that significant a freezing rain accumulation on a model before.

 

 

Twice in 2007 but it was farther east. Some 1-2" freezing rain amounts over this area in one of the storms.

[JoMo]

Next wave of moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet incoming to OKC metro as I type. This wave could literally last all night for most of us, and every drop looks to be frozen in some form or other. It is going to be an ugly, ugly, UGLY night.

 

That looks nasty. HRRR continues it into the morning hours at least. 

[ouamber]

Hey everybody! Winter time, I'm back:) So, here in Tulsa, should we be concerned with temps dipping down to freezing? We are getting very VERY close....