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Erika 2015


jburns

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This year is a special unprecedented case in many regards. Particularly the extent of the 30C isotherm. In hindsight, you may have wanted Erika to fade away early on.

 

 

OHC Values are almost off the scales near FL. If Erica makes it past Puerto Rico, negating any shear or dry air the system will rapidly intensify. 

 

11948368_10153716749595312_986301055_o.j

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Lots of disagreement between mets about the future of Ericka, and lots of disagreement between models. CMC/UKMET/GFS/EURO and their ensembles all pretty much go with the idea of a weak system by the time it gets close to the U.S... if not a weak, open wave. The majority of high-res and hurricane models disagree with the global models to varying degrees, with some thinking the possibility of a major-hurricane, to a hurricane, to a high-end tropical storm. Interested in what the 12NAM will have to say... as the system will be moving into its domain soon at 84 hrs.

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More likely than not we are looking at a weak system. I also think this post is extremely telling to the future of Ericka.

majority of the ens. ram it into hisp., while the models showing deepening dont show it until the storm passes north of hisp.  interaction with the island is the big difference.

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majority of the ens. ram it into hisp., while the models showing deepening dont show it until the storm passes north of hisp.  interaction with the island is the big difference.

+10. 18Z HWRF shows this very very well. It shows a pretty meager and weak system until it passes just to the north of Hispaniola, then it bombs into a 100mph hurricane as it gets into ideal rapid-strengthening conditions off the coast of FL, and over the Bahamas. 

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+10. 18Z HWRF shows this very very well. It shows a pretty meager and weak system until it passes just to the north of Hispaniola, then it bombs into a 100mph hurricane as it gets into ideal rapid-strengthening conditions off the coast of FL, and over the Bahamas. 

00z tracks north of hisp.

05L_tracks_latest.png

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She does look better this AM for sure and the latest flare up is almost over the center so thats a big plus.....IMO track wise the more organized and stronger she gets now should increase the threat of a farther north landfall or eventual recurve since a stronger Erika should track on the northern side of guidance versus the weaker version which stays more westward.

 

There is still up to 20 knts of shear in front of her she has to cross though according to the latest shear maps and as nice as the current flare up is it might not last for long....

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I gotta say in just the last few hrs Erika has really put together a nice bit of organization. how this plays out will be why I love the weather. You can run the RBTOP loop and see the tops being blown off of the storms in the southern and central Leewards but its much less pronounced in the NE islands.....IF Erika stay more westward over the next 24 then she will likely get more shear and therefore stay weaker thus more likely to stay on a more westerly heading, and the south/central Florida landfall looks pretty likely given that scenario. If she can get more north then she might not have as much or as long to deal with the shear and be able to intensify faster thus making a more northerly track likely and the Carolinas or even a recurve would be on the table.

 

If the center moves south under the heaviest storms she has now that would also suggest more southerly track, in fact that would increase the chance of hitting the Greater Antilles and well that would just be bad all around.

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It looks like the dry air as advected out of Erica and shear is weakening in magnitude with current shear being 19kt. Erica also appears to have a well defined center of circulation. The Bahamas have little to no shear, no dry air, and off the charts OHC as of now. If conditions stay the same, then this will be a serious storm for someone. 

 

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Looks to be moving due west right now!

 

Center moved .8 W and .1 N between 5am and 8am so its pretty close to due west, but  the center is also north of the main convection blob and it will be interesting to  see if it can either wrap storms around the center and if so cause it to move more WNW/NW or does the center move in under the convection thus giving it a more W direction....

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I thought more people would be following this. Looks like we might have an actual hurricane hitting the US. NHC has it heading to southern Florida.

 

 

The modeling and intensity forecasts are a bit chaotic right now.  We need to wait and see what happens with the land interaction before we can begin to get really interested.

 

I wouldn't worry too much about the shear and dry air around as much as the track/land interaction.  Once it gets closer to the coast, it's open to rapidly intensify.

 

With that said, this is definitely a US landfall threat, and Florida is the likely spot right now.

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Erika is still not vertically stacked with the 500mb vorticity center off to the south of the 850 vort center so there is still a lot of organization to be done. With the persistence of convection to the south we need to watch for the center to either nudge or reform to the south. This would throw a huge wrench in the future of the storm since any deviation south brings Hispaniola more into play.  Center relocations have made for many busted track and intensity forecast especially with disorganized systems.

 

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post-962-0-40164200-1440599221_thumb.gif

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Erika is still not vertically stacked with the 500mb vorticity center off to the south of the 850 vort center so there is still a lot of organization to be done. With the persistence of convection to the south we need to watch for the center to either nudge or reform to the south. This would throw a huge wrench in the future of the storm since any deviation south brings Hispaniola more into play.  Center relocations have made for many busted track and intensity forecast especially with disorganized systems.

Still alot of work to be done, but Erica is going in the right direction.... Once the shear relaxes, convection will fill in to the Northern quadrants

 

 

201505L0826_0901_xsect.gif

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Here is what I mean, and why I think the GFS is lost with how strong this could get over the Bahamas.  The shear forecasts, from its own product show me an upper level anticylone   (i.e. a pretty good chance its got lower shear and good ventilation)  so it can/should strengthen more than what this model shows.  The GFS could end up being right, and kudos to it, but until I see the EURO and other Hurricane geared models start showing a consistant weak sheared mess...I am discounting it for the most part.  There is still some weight you have to give to the GFS, but at this point it has to be VERY low.  

 
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