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Danny (2015)


jburns

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Thanks Jburns, hopefully there is a trip to the beach in your future....

 

Looks like there is a 50/50 chance this thing RI's in the next day and conditions are pretty good.......been a while since we have had a system like this to track......long range models are interesting to say the least but its 10 days away so for now I am just hoping for a good solid looking cane.

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Thanks Jburns, hopefully there is a trip to the beach in your future....

 

Looks like there is a 50/50 chance this thing RI's in the next day and conditions are pretty good.......been a while since we have had a system like this to track......long range models are interesting to say the least but its 10 days away so for now I am just hoping for a good solid looking cane.

 

If it comes in anywhere from GA north, I plan on being there.  That's a long time away though. It should be fun to finally have something to track and speculate about.  I know it is early for a thread, but there is absolutely nothing else going on. 

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If it comes in anywhere from GA north, I plan on being there.  That's a long time away though. It should be fun to finally have something to track and speculate about.  I know it is early for a thread, but there is absolutely nothing else going on. 

 

My early call is Danny will be Cat 3 by Thursday say 120-125ish cause then he will look good on MW and IR and be worthy of being added to my hurricane file...he ends up making a run at SE but ends up just wide right maybe like Earl in 2010. There is several fronts in the long range but interestingly the GFS has some ridging late and takes something tropical across Florida twice and then up the EC to NC way out at 300hrs. Upside is we should have some stuff to track for a few weeks in the meat of the season.

 

edit to add 850 loop from GFS...and we know this wont happen since Tampa never gets hit like that but if it did it would be nasty

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z850_vort&runtime=2015081818&fh=264&xpos=0&ypos=454

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Saying there is a 50/50 shot at Rapid intensification was a pretty over the top statement to make. Also saying it could go from a low end TS to a Cat 3 in 48 hours is also ridiculous IMO.

Danny has an opportunity to be a decent storm but let's not mislead the readers. The odds of either of those two things happening is much lower than 50/50. RI is a 30knot increase in 24 hours by definition and doesnt happen very often.

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Saying there is a 50/50 shot at Rapid intensification was a pretty over the top statement to make. Also saying it could go from a low end TS to a Cat 3 in 48 hours is also ridiculous IMO.

Danny has an opportunity to be a decent storm but let's not mislead the readers. The odds of either of those two things happening is much lower than 50/50. RI is a 30knot increase in 24 hours by definition and doesnt happen very often.

 

It appears your not up to speed on what levels and criteria are used for declaring an intensification "rapid", there are several thresholds as seen below with the actual data on RI for Danny from the navy site......so maybe it wasn't so over the top after all.

 

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)

Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%)

Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%)

Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

 

Admittedly the call for 120 is rather aggressive but the dry air issues that seemed to be the only real issue for him appear to be minimal to non existent at the moment and all other factors point to steady strengthening and well we all know intensity forecast are terrible and I just think if they are wrong they are wrong on the low side. Currently he appears to be organizing quickly and should be at least a 50 mph storm at 11 tonight...this buoy 45 miles north of the center had winds 45 sustained http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026 which is decent and we would expect winds right around the LLC to be a bit higher and the latest report from that buoy was over 2 hrs ago and the sat presentation is even better now. In fact I suspect we have a good chance at seeing Hurricane Danny by 5 pm Wed.

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It appears your not up to speed on what levels and criteria are used for declaring an intensification "rapid", there are several thresholds as seen below with the actual data on RI for Danny from the navy site......so maybe it wasn't so over the top after all.

 

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 4.0 times the sample mean(11.9%)

Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 37% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%)

Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%)

Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%)

 

Admittedly the call for 120 is rather aggressive but the dry air issues that seemed to be the only real issue for him appear to be minimal to non existent at the moment and all other factors point to steady strengthening and well we all know intensity forecast are terrible and I just think if they are wrong they are wrong on the low side. Currently he appears to be organizing quickly and should be at least a 50 mph storm at 11 tonight...this buoy 45 miles north of the center had winds 45 sustained http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026 which is decent and we would expect winds right around the LLC to be a bit higher and the latest report from that buoy was over 2 hrs ago and the sat presentation is even better now. In fact I suspect we have a good chance at seeing Hurricane Danny by 5 pm Wed.

Admittedly I've never heard of 25kt increase being considered RI. The definition on the NWS site states 30+kts in 24 hours. I've always gone with that. I wouldn't take what one model shows in terms of proabailites with much seriousness. You're usually very bullish on storms so I kind of just take it as a model bias, wanted to point it out to readers lol... I have a warm bias in the winter so it's all good man.

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Admittedly I've never heard of 25kt increase being considered RI. The definition on the NWS site states 30+kts in 24 hours. I've always gone with that. I wouldn't take what one model shows in terms of proabailites with much seriousness. You're usually very bullish on storms so I kind of just take it as a model bias, wanted to point it out to readers lol... I have a warm bias in the winter so it's all good man.

 

For when you got time to read basically its the run down on the way they calculate and predict RI chances......Danny has a 40-50% chance to see a 25-30 knt RI over the next 24 hrs......so that means it goes from a 40 mph TS to a 75-80 mph cane by tomorrow afternoon which based on everything I see currently is a pretty balanced prediction.....I suspect the NHC will bump up their timeframe for when Danny becomes a cane by at least 12 hrs on the 11 pm update.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/2009WAF2222280.1

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2011/rapid.html

 

Raw data for Danny from SHIPS model

 

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/15081900AL0415_ships.txt

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Saying there is a 50/50 shot at Rapid intensification was a pretty over the top statement to make. Also saying it could go from a low end TS to a Cat 3 in 48 hours is also ridiculous IMO.

Danny has an opportunity to be a decent storm but let's not mislead the readers. The odds of either of those two things happening is much lower than 50/50. RI is a 30knot increase in 24 hours by definition and doesnt happen very often.

 

000

WTNT44 KNHC 190245

TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042015

1100 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2015

Danny is forecast to be in an environment of light vertical wind

shear through the forecast period, and earlier Windsat data

suggest the storm has tight convective banding near the center.

In addition, the Rapid Intensification Index of the SHIPS model has

about a 50 percent chance of 25 kt of strengthening during the next

24 hours.  However, there is abundant dry air near Danny,

particularly to the north of the storm, and the dynamical models

forecast Danny to encounter increasingly drier air through the

forecast period.  The intensity forecast, which follows the overall

trend of the intensity guidance, calls for continued strengthening

through 96 hours, followed by a slight weakening due to dry air.

The new forecast has a higher peak intensity than that of the

previous advisory, but is not as intense as the SHIPS and LGEM

models.  There are two alternative possibilities for this forecast.

The first is that rapid intensification occurs in the next 24 hours

before dry air entrains into Danny's core.  The second is that

enough dry air starts entraining during the next 24 hours to cause a

slower rate of development than currently forecast.

$$

Forecaster Beven

 

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6z GFS has the storm off the east coast on day 12. The only important thing I see in the models is that it has a storm (at this time range). The specific track will waver back and forth in the coming days. We could see tracks through the gulf, through Florida, up the east coast, and re-curvature out to sea. **and at this range we can see runs that dissipate the storm. Still a long ways out.    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150819+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

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6z GFS has the storm off the east coast on day 12. The only important thing I see in the models is that it has a storm (at this time range). The specific track will waver back and forth in the coming days. We could see tracks through the gulf, through Florida, up the east coast, and re-curvature out to sea. **and at this range we can see runs that dissipate the storm. Still a long ways out.    

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=288ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150819+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

GFS is getting ripped apart since the mighty Euro shows a dying TD. GFS will never be trusted after Sandy and this won't help if it's wrong this time.

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How close does it need to be for the hurricane hunters to go out?

 

I'm pretty sure they already have been.  As it gets closer, I believe they go more frequently.  That track looks similar to Hugo although the likelihood of it impacting the US will be small probably.  We won't really have a good idea for another 5-7 days where this thing might go.

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800px-Hugo_1989_track.png

If it follows that track I'll be amazed. I mean coming into the SC coast and continuing northwestward from there. That's highly unusual. Most of the time once they get close to the SC coastline, or even making landfall along the SC coastline, they turn sharply to the north or northeast. I remember them forecasting Hugo to continue coming to the northwest toward Greenville but made a sharp turn southeast of Columbia toward Charlotte. It's pretty rare for the northwest part of SC to even get rain from a Carolina coastline land falling hurricane.

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