Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Heavy Rain Threat


IsentropicLift

Recommended Posts

For several days models have been keying in on the potential for some very heavy rain late Monday night into Tuesday night. This looks to come in the form of several waves. The main cause is an unseasonably amplified trough swinging through Quebec which will allow several shortwaves to round the base and cross our region. There are even some indications of a secondary low pressure system developing along the warm front which would greatly increase low level shear out ahead of it.

 

You can see here how the LLJ really cranks up late tonight just to the NW of NYC.

 

 namconus_mslp_uv850_neus_11.png

 

While it's unclear exactly where the heaviest rains are going to fall due to the convective nature of this threat, we have traditionally done very well in these early morning warm frontal passages.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 143
  • Created
  • Last Reply

12 Z GFS shows around 0.5  to max an inch of rain across the area.

All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical.

 

Best.

it's a convective event, so you are going to see some crazy bullseyes...no one is getting 5 even, but certain spots will get nailed while others get relatively shafted  GFS is a global model, so it will smooth out the totals while NAM which is a meso model will show the crazy bullseyes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 Z GFS shows around 0.5  to max an inch of rain across the area.

All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical.

 

Best.

The 12z GFS shows the same QPF max over NNJ as all of the other modeling. 1"+. 

 

gfs_apcpn_neus_8.png

 

Most people wouldn't expect a global, lower res model to show the same totals as a high res mesoscale model. I think we've all acknowledged that the higher end totals (5"+) are highly unlikely to happen unless some serious training occurs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah. GFS has .5 inches to 1.5 inches with NNJ with the jackpot. It looks like it shafts LI once again. But this is the model with the least amount of rain on it

Long Island stands the best chance tomorrow afternoon. 

 

Unfortunately for NNJ and NYC, the first batch might go just NW and the second might go just southeast. We really need that wave of low pressure to develop near TTN in order to get the excessive totals.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 Z GFS shows around 0.5  to max an inch of rain across the area.

All this talk of 5-8 inches of rain is comical.

 

Best.

This. 

 

I am not sure why every convective QPF event has to be turned into a dam burst. This is just a pretty standard high PWAT event that could deliver a few lollipops of 2-3 inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Long Island stands the best chance tomorrow afternoon.

Unfortunately for NNJ and NYC, the first batch might go just NW and the second might go just southeast. We really need that wave of low pressure to develop near TTN in order to get the excessive totals.

Yeah on second look Eastern LI looks to do the best with this as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...