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El Nino and early Winter Discussion


jaxjagman

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Speaking of the analog years.... If you want some depression for  your Thursday regarding cold and winter, here is a review of the 97-98 winter....

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9802/tr9802.pdf

 

That was back in my TWC days...trying to find places to send the live crews...we had just committed to many more live days after the historic 95-96 winter and so there were many days with Seidel standing on the outer banks in the heavy rain and 20-30mph winds and/or Cape Cod   :sleepy:  The only highlight was getting Cantore into Burlington, VT just before everything shut down for the massive icestorm in SE Canada, Maine, Vermont, etc....  There is always hope though for some in the south as Mar 23-25, 1983 was one helluva a sloppy snowstorm for the I-20 corridor.....first time I ever heard the magical thundersnow. Perhaps the small sample size will work in our favor, but it is hard to go against a warm leaning winter for much of the eastern US.

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Speaking of the analog years.... If you want some depression for  your Thursday regarding cold and winter, here is a review of the 97-98 winter....

 

http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/techrpts/tr9802/tr9802.pdf

 

That was back in my TWC days...trying to find places to send the live crews...we had just committed to many more live days after the historic 95-96 winter and so there were many days with Seidel standing on the outer banks in the heavy rain and 20-30mph winds and/or Cape Cod   :sleepy:  The only highlight was getting Cantore into Burlington, VT just before everything shut down for the massive icestorm in SE Canada, Maine, Vermont, etc....  There is always hope though for some in the south as Mar 23-25, 1983 was one helluva a sloppy snowstorm for the I-20 corridor.....first time I ever heard the magical thundersnow. Perhaps the small sample size will work in our favor, but it is hard to go against a warm leaning winter for much of the eastern US.

Thanks Mr. Bob

 

Here is another look at winter into spring for 97-98 from the NCDA.Who ever haven't seen this yet just click on the highlighted section on your county on the left it will tell you what happened for that such days event.This is for Tn

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/listevents.jsp?eventType=ALL&beginDate_mm=12&beginDate_dd=15&beginDate_yyyy=1997&endDate_mm=04&endDate_dd=30&endDate_yyyy=1998&county=ALL&hailfilter=0.00&tornfilter=0&windfilter=000&sort=DT&submitbutton=Search&statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE

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Man those snow totals are way off for the 2/4/98 event and the 12/30-31/97 events, at least for my area. 2/4/98 says 6-12 inches across the Northern Plateau, when it was more like 8-24 inches across Scott, Campbell, Morgan and Claiborne. 12-30-31 says 2-5 inches, in this same area and it was more like 6-12 inches. I recall that being the first year that there was a late deer season in this unit, and I was working in a good 12 inches of snow by New Years day above 2500 feet. I had 8 inches on the ground here. I had 30 inches total that season. 

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Evidence continues to build for a mild to warm winter. El Nino continues east-based / classic. Separately, note the Gulf of Alaska GOA blue patches expanding. Chart is relative to normal. Bering Sea now holds higher warm anamalies, though still cooler absolute SSTs. One could infer a better chance of GOA troughing with upstream Bering Sea ridging, which is a warm pattern for much of the US esp east of the Rockies.

 

Of course much more goes into the forecast. However a GOA low with strong El Nino is mild, iff the GOA low forms. Of course the AO is a wild card. I still favor mild, but at the same time that does not shut the door on Plateau or mountain snow. A GOA and downstream zonal flow over the US is warm, hopefully less cloudy than split flow blah at times. For lower elevations I think I'm more interested in severe weather than snow this winter.

 

OK, I'm interested in both, lol. :drunk:

 

sst_anom-151004.gif

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Evidence continues to build for a mild to warm winter. El Nino continues east-based. Note the Gulf of Alaska GOA blue patches expanding. Chart is relative to normal. Bering Sea now holds higher warm anamalies, though still cooler absolute SSTs. One could infer a better chance of GOA troughing with upstream Bering Sea ridging, which is a warm pattern for much of the US esp east of the Rockies.

 

Of course much more goes into the forecast. However a GOA low with strong El Nino is mild, iff the GOA low forms. Of course the AO is a wild card. I still favor mild, but at the same time that does not shut the door on Plateau or mountain snow. A GOA and downstream zonal flow over the US is warm, hopefully less cloudy than split flow blah at times. For lower elevations I think I'm more interested in severe weather than snow this winter.

 

OK, I'm interested in both, lol. :drunk:

 

 

 

Note the past 30 days the warming in GOA....09/10 had a ice bath in GOA, granted we had insane blocking but still.  Atlantic is very similar to 09/10.    Amazing warmth around the Aleutians.

post-2311-0-32852200-1444141069_thumb.pn

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Man those snow totals are way off for the 2/4/98 event and the 12/30-31/97 events, at least for my area. 2/4/98 says 6-12 inches across the Northern Plateau, when it was more like 8-24 inches across Scott, Campbell, Morgan and Claiborne. 12-30-31 says 2-5 inches, in this same area and it was more like 6-12 inches. I recall that being the first year that there was a late deer season in this unit, and I was working in a good 12 inches of snow by New Years day above 2500 feet. I had 8 inches on the ground here. I had 30 inches total that season.

[/quote you're correct John. Remember that one well. Just across line in ky McCreary and Wayne county had around 2 feet. We were supposed to get tha

The GOA was cool in 2009.LP is gonna build in there in a couple days so it should get hit up more upcoming

 

attachicon.gifanomnight.10.5.2009.gif 1174×640 .png

quitened Jeff up with that map
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ame="John1122" post="3704994" timestamp="1443714523"]Man those snow totals are way off for the 2/4/98 event and the 12/30-31/97 events, at least for my area. 2/4/98 says 6-12 inches across the Northern Plateau, when it was more like 8-24 inches across Scott, Campbell, Morgan and Claiborne. 12-30-31 says 2-5 inches, in this same area and it was more like 6-12 inches. I recall that being the first year that there was a late deer season in this unit, and I was working in a good 12 inches of snow by New Years day above 2500 feet. I had 8 inches on the ground here. I had 30 inches total that season.

[/quote you're correct John. Remember that one well. Just across line in ky McCreary and Wayne county had around 2 feet. We were supposed to get thaquitened Jeff up with that map

???

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Post #104 looks like troubles with the quote feature. 2009 was notorious in that the solar minimum and -AO overwhelmed much of the mild El Nino impacts. Note that Nino is supposed to be cold in the South anyway, but the North got slammed. Strong El Nino regimes like 1997 or 1982 tend to promote such a big warm signal North that it can bleed down into the Mid South. It did those years. 1987 was a cold Nino on the strong side, but 1997 and 1982 are closer fits to the impressive strength this year. Anything can happen, esp with a small sample size, and nobody is disputing alternative outcomes. However the odds favor warm. When millions of dollars are on the line, you know forecasting for a business entity, probability is a much better tool than wishcasting. In the long-run probability based forecasts are the most commercially useful.

 

Note the Tennessee Valley / Mid South forum has a higher level of courtesy and quality of discussion than other sub-forums. We do not 'quiet'  or silence each other. We offer alternative forecasts. Leave it to the weather to see who verifies. In Banter you bet we wishcast, including me! We value open discussion and do not compete or whatever you do. Try to learn our ways.

 

All that said, new posters don't be shy. Our forum culture should make one feel comfortable at any level. Nobody is rebuked here for a forecast. We just share reasoning. Also AmWx members from the Mid South outside of Tennessee, and from North Alabama and North Georgia please jump in. We often share the same weather pattern.

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Post #104 looks like troubles with the quote feature. 2009 was notorious in that the solar minimum and -AO overwhelmed much of the mild El Nino impacts. Note that Nino is supposed to be cold in the South anyway, but the North got slammed. Strong El Nino regimes like 1997 or 1982 tend to promote such a big warm signal North that it can bleed down into the Mid South. It did those years. 1987 was a cold Nino on the strong side, but 1997 and 1982 are closer fits to the impressive strength this year. Anything can happen, esp with a small sample size, and nobody is disputing alternative outcomes. However the odds favor warm. When millions of dollars are on the line, you know forecasting for a business entity, probability is a much better tool than wishcasting. In the long-run probability based forecasts are the most commercially useful.

Note the Tennessee Valley / Mid South forum has a higher level of courtesy and quality of discussion than other sub-forums. We do not 'quiet' or silence each other. We offer alternative forecasts. Leave it to the weather to see who verifies. In Banter you bet we wishcast, including me! We value open discussion and do not compete or whatever you do. Try to learn our ways.

All that said, new posters don't be shy. Our forum culture should make one feel comfortable at any level. Nobody is rebuked here for a forecast. We just share reasoning. Also AmWx members from the Mid South outside of Tennessee, and from North Alabama and North Georgia please jump in. We often share the same weather pattern.

Great post
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Thank you Marietta. Hopefully Nino will deliver for the north ATL 'burbs this year.

 

Euro released new monthly charts today as well, so it along with the NMME provides plenty of new charts to digest. Euro themes are no surprise. It starts winter mild. December features a trough in the Plains/Texas and a subtle flat SER. January transitions, still not really cold here. Euro brings SE heights below normal in February but keeps 850 Ts near normal, not too shocking in split flow. Highest precip is found in the Deep South, which one would associate with rain. At or below normal over our region is fine if you like snow. Due to lower liquid content, some of our best snow months are below normal liquid.

 

Data continues to offer several outcomes. I still lean mild for personal expectations and for work. Always hoping for snow though. Actually, can we enjoy fall foliage first?

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IRI ENSO Forecast

 

http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

 

IRI/CPC ENSO Predictions Plume [september 17, 2015]
Download the Quicklook PDF

ENSO Forecasts

Select the desired ENSO Forecast:

IRI ENSO Forecast

CPC/IRI ENSO Update

Published: October 8, 2015

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued jointly by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory
Synopsis: There is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016.

During September, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies were well above average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1). The Niño indices generally increased, although the far western Niño-4 index was nearly unchanged (Fig. 2). Also, relative to last month, the strength of the positive subsurface temperature anomalies decreased slightly in the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 3), but the largest departures remained above 6°C (Fig. 4). The atmosphere was well coupled with the ocean, with significant low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies persisting from the western to the east-central tropical Pacific. Also, the traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values became more negative (stronger), consistent with enhanced convection over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia (Fig. 5). Collectively, these atmospheric and oceanic anomalies reflect a strong El Niño.

All models surveyed predict El Niño to continue into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2016, and all multi-model averages predict a peak in late fall/early winter (Fig. 6). The forecaster consensus unanimously favors a strong El Niño, with peak 3-month SST departures in the Niño 3.4 region near or exceeding +2.0°C. Overall, there is an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-16, gradually weakening through spring 2016 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Across the United States, temperature and precipitation impacts from El Niño are likely to be seen during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday October 15th).  Outlooks generally favor below-average temperatures and above-median precipitation across the southern tier of the United States, and above-average temperatures and below-median precipitation over the northern tier of the United States.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC’s Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog.

The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 12 November 2015. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: [email protected].

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Sooo.... Warm winter, hot/dry summer, cool 16-17 winter....

Still alot on the table to me.Wind anomolies a couple days ago were showing more at 120w but today seeing more around 90w Getting into region 1.2.towards Mid Month  and beyond.Think we'll see possibly another spike upcoming into 1.2 in the near future

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