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Squall line With Severe potential 07/30


Damage In Tolland

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For the first time all summer..some models are signaling a strong, damaging in places, squall line developing tomorrow afternoon in NY state and tearing thru New England right to the coast by tomorrow evening. As is usually the case, Pony tails will be blown off heads in N VT thru Maine..and the Berks will get crushed..But this time it does appear as if much of SNE right to the coast(who lead the league in severe wx this summer) will get in the action. Not much of a cool down..more of a Texas style dew or dry line

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For the first time all summer..models are signaling a strong, damaging in places, squall line developing tomorrow afternoon in NY state and tearing thru New England right to the coast by tomorrow evening. As is usually the case, Pony tails will be blown off heads in N VT thru Maine..and the Berks will get crushed..But this time it does appear as if much of SNE right to the coast(who lead the league in severe wx this summer) will get in the action. Not much of a cool down..more of a Texas style dew or dry line

? Which model shows your scenario.
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Just wait and see then I suggest.

I'd would like to see when you start a thread with the terms "models showing" you either give a link or post some shots so we can see what you are referencing instead of us having to go search what you are looking at. Not being a dick just opened this thread and thought hmm that is interesting, I'll will have to check it out. So I do and what do you know I see what appears to be a SameOleS scenario and sure enough when I reference my local NWS discussion that it was is shown. so if you have  a link to the models you reference that would be nice. 

 

 

00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. IN FACT

MOST MODELS HAVE SPED THIS SYSTEM UP BY ABOUT 6+ HOURS. SHOWERS

AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND 18Z AND

PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO A SEVERE

STORM IS POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH MARGINAL

MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHEAR VALUES LOOK TO BE ALONG OR BEHIND THE

FRONT...WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONG/SEVERE POTENTIAL. BIGGEST THREAT

WITH THESE STORMS APPEARS TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS LEADING TO NUISANCE

FLOODING AS PWAT VALUES ARE ABOUT 2+ INCHES. GUSTY WINDS/LOCALIZED

DOWNBURST ALSO CANNOT BE RULE OUT DUE TO THE INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS.

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Go one time frame later. I'd favor your typical eastern NY, Berks into NNE. But, could see good cells make it to the CT river I suppose.

Yup..those areas always favored..especially in a down year for severe overall in New Eng..that was mentioned..but this one has legs farther east where you knew other ones didn't.

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Go one time frame later. I'd favor your typical eastern NY, Berks into NNE. But, could see good cells make it to the CT river I suppose.

My point exactly , hopefully he gets a thunderstorm, as BOX says rain is the main threat with isolated thunderstorms with maybe a microburst. 

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Yup..those areas always favored..especially in a down year for severe overall in New Eng..that was mentioned..but this one has legs farther east where you knew other ones didn't.

I don't see this in any of the links you posted, good luck

 

For the first time all summer..some models are signaling a strong, damaging in places, squall line developing tomorrow afternoon in NY state and tearing thru New England right to the coast by tomorrow evening. 

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From BTV....

 

 

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 414 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT THE THREAT
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
BY MIDDAY. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS
RATHER SHARP...SO THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A GOOD SOURCE OF LIFT AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE 60S. STILL EXPECTING
THIS TO RESULT IN CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE. WHAT
CONTINUES TO STAND OUT IS THE INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
TOP OF THE COLD FRONT AND INSTABILITY AXIS
TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...SHOULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. AT THIS
TIME...THINKING STORMS FORM OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
QUICKLY INTENSIFY WITH THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND REMAINDER OF
VERMONT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

 

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From SPC.... maybe slight risk tomorrow.

 

 ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND...   ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN   ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY...WEAK TO MODERATE HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS A   LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX CROSSES THE REGION   THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. EARLY-DAY CLOUD COVER/WIDELY SCATTERED   PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY PRECEDE THE EASTWARD-ADVANCING COLD   FRONT...BUT POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING AND RELATED WEAK TO MODERATE   BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO   DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS SPANNING EASTERN PA/NJ INTO   EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND. WHERE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION   OCCURS...ADEQUATE VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE DAY /30-35 KT WITH   STRONGER SHEAR ARRIVING AT NIGHT/ WILL SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED STORM   MODES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY A   DAMAGING-WIND RISK. PORTIONS OF EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE   REEVALUATED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THE POSSIBILITY A CATEGORICAL   SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE.
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Just give me the rain the 12km NAM is offering. You can keep the severe.

 

Looked better timed for severe in your area on the NAM.  I saw that on tropicaltidbits that the 12k NAM really liked your area for the maxing out of the line tomorrow.  Timing at 21z looked pretty perfect.  It was more like 15-18z up here.

 

Unfortunately the 4km NAM had absolutely nothing for my area down towards your area, lol.  Just depends on what resolution we want to hump.

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