Bob Chill Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Took a quick look at what the top 5 strong nino events looked like in August. Persistent low height anomaly in SE Canada stands out. Ridge over northern europe and AK and a low height anomaly over the western arctic basin stands out as well. Ensembles pretty much move towards a very similar LW pattern through the first week of August. Unlikely to be a coincidence. Nino climo typically favors cooler temps east of the MS river in August. Let's hope we move in this direction through the month and have met summer close out being pretty benign and easy. It's been easy so far and persistent big heat isn't on the radar at any range right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Took a quick look at what the top 5 strong nino events looked like in August. Persistent low height anomaly in SE Canada stands out. Ridge over northern europe and AK and a low height anomaly over the western arctic basin stands out as well. Ensembles pretty much move towards a very similar LW pattern through the first week of August. Unlikely to be a coincidence. Aug Nino h5.JPG euro ens d10.JPG gefs d10.JPG Nino climo typically favors cooler temps east of the MS river in August. Let's hope we move in this direction through the month and have met summer close out being pretty benign and easy. It's been easy so far and persistent big heat isn't on the radar at any range right now. nino august temps.JPG It's mid 90s this week and next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Definitely agree that we flip into a cooler than average pattern towards the 2nd week of August. Until then I think we'll continue to run warm, as we have for most of the summer. Higher-frequency forcing is emerging in the wake of the last MJO event, superimposed on the antecedent Niño forcing. That should allow ENSO to take the wheel on the wx pattern for awhile going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 It's mid 90s this week and next? Yeah, it's been persistently warmer than average despite the lack of extreme heat. The modeling has been overplaying the cool airmasses here all summer. The problem this time is the trough axis is oriented a bit too far west, at least to start, hence we're stuck in the right front quadrant for awhile (W/SW flow in low/mid levels) before it finally moves in 10-15 days from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 28, 2015 Author Share Posted July 28, 2015 Yeah, it's been persistently warmer than average despite the lack of extreme heat. The modeling has been overplaying the cool airmasses here all summer. The problem this time is the trough axis is oriented a bit too far west, at least to start, hence we're stuck in the right front quadrant for awhile (W/SW flow in low/mid levels) before it finally moves in 10-15 days from now. Maybe for dc proper but definitely not in the burbs. IAD/BWI are 50/50 above and below normal days for July. Both are still running below for the month but BWI will lose the fight shortly. Models have been over estimating the cool airmasses but have equally overestimated the warm ones. I don't compare my sensible weather to DCA and most on here don't either because it doesn't represent the majority of our yards. July hasn't been persistently warm for most of us. It's been quite pleasant. Every 3-4 day run of warm gets knocked out of the way with low dews and/or bn temps. This week is the same thing. Warm and increasing humidity through thursday but them lower dew air slides in Friday. Hopefully it lasts the weekend. 90/60-65 is easy peasy. We'll see what happens down the line but my wag is next week is a repeat. Warms up for a few then a front clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Took a quick look at what the top 5 strong nino events looked like in August. Persistent low height anomaly in SE Canada stands out. Ridge over northern europe and AK and a low height anomaly over the western arctic basin stands out as well. Ensembles pretty much move towards a very similar LW pattern through the first week of August. Unlikely to be a coincidence. Aug Nino h5.JPG euro ens d10.JPG gefs d10.JPG Nino climo typically favors cooler temps east of the MS river in August. Let's hope we move in this direction through the month and have met summer close out being pretty benign and easy. It's been easy so far and persistent big heat isn't on the radar at any range right now. nino august temps.JPG CFS2 agrees for August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 28, 2015 Author Share Posted July 28, 2015 Here's mtd temps for BWI/IAD. It's been a great month outside of the DC furnace. IAD BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 I want 50s. BWI hit 58F last week but of course my POS PWS on the water had a low of 63.4F. I always say I'm going to move it, but I never do. I'm just worried that perhaps it's just a lemon, and that me moving it 300ft into the woods will yield the same results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 The cool folks oversell as much as the warm. We didn't torch long and hard in July but it was a pretty typical July around here outside a few nice days. So far the pattern since spring has tended to favor warmth winning over cool for primarily the SE US... I'd not be that shocked if that continues into Aug. We're sorta the battle zone on that perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 The cool folks oversell as much as the warm. We didn't torch long and hard in July but it was a pretty typical July around here outside a few nice days. So far the pattern since spring has tended to favor warmth winning over cool for primarily the SE US... I'd not be that shocked if that continues into Aug. We're sorta the battle zone on that perhaps. I think that once you get into the mid-80s with humidity, it'll always feel pretty typically summer. When you get into the mid-90s is when it starts to seem abnormal. If we get dry 80s, then it makes things that much more pleasant. I'd also suggest that mid- to long-range model heat has always been knocked down as we've gotten closer in. We've seen more than a couple instances of low- to mid-90s showing up a week or more out, only for that to verify a good 5+ degrees lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 I think that once you get into the mid-80s with humidity, it'll always feel pretty typically summer. When you get into the mid-90s is when it starts to seem abnormal. If we get dry 80s, then it makes things that much more pleasant. I'd also suggest that mid- to long-range model heat has always been knocked down as we've gotten closer in. We've seen more than a couple instances of low- to mid-90s showing up a week or more out, only for that to verify a good 5+ degrees lower. I'm weird but usually I think of Aug as offering the first tastes of fall anyway.. if nothing else thru drier air intrusions and maybe a cool night or a few as we get deeper into the month. Sure, early month has a history of being brutal and it has been recently. So... I guess I wouldn't be surprised if Aug feels decent in that sense, and there's certainly no reason to think we're going to torch at this point. We haven't really truly torched since May.. In both June and July we've been pretty close to the transition zone between warm anomalies and cool anomalies. I think one issue may be selling it as a DCA anomaly.. probably just seeing real shifts in temp from south to north this mo especially. As far as I'm concerned it's been a pretty solid summer if not notably hot. We're racking up in consistency at least. But either way, killing much of the first half of July without extreme heat is a big win around here. Still think there's some 2010-12 mindset floating though.. fairly normal DC summer tempwise thus far. It's hard to superheat the air mass here and over the source regions partly given the high moisture content plus tons of ET with soil and plant moisture. I think that's part of the reason we've seen verification end up lower than what we see from range. This has not set up as a huge heat year overall across the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 28, 2015 Author Share Posted July 28, 2015 The cool folks oversell as much as the warm. We didn't torch long and hard in July but it was a pretty typical July around here outside a few nice days. So far the pattern since spring has tended to favor warmth winning over cool for primarily the SE US... I'd not be that shocked if that continues into Aug. We're sorta the battle zone on that perhaps. July has been an absolute borefest on all fronts. I don't think you can have a more average summer month with nothing anomalous to talk about. This month is the quintessential normal July. It can be packaged for reference later on when discussing what a normal July is around here. Hopefully August delivers something noteworthy in any direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 July has been an absolute borefest on all fronts. I don't think you can have a more average summer month with nothing anomalous to talk about. This month is the quintessential normal July. It can be packaged for reference later on when discussing what a normal July is around here. Hopefully August delivers something noteworthy in any direction. Yeah it's been pretty lame lately. Guess about what you'd expect on the storm front at least as we tend to run into no shear by this time of year. The warm days have seemed especially humid but they haven't been terribly hot in general so it's not been anything too impossible to handle. We should start a poll on when the first El Nino nor'easter will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Yeah it's been pretty lame lately. Guess about what you'd expect on the storm front at least as we tend to run into no shear by this time of year. The warm days have seemed especially humid but they haven't been terribly hot in general so it's not been anything too impossible to handle. We should start a poll on when the first El Nino nor'easter will happen. will that include tropical action? isn't it more common to get hybrid stuff developing off the SE coast in NINOs come August, or maybe I'm dreaming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 Yeah it's been pretty lame lately. Guess about what you'd expect on the storm front at least as we tend to run into no shear by this time of year. The warm days have seemed especially humid but they haven't been terribly hot in general so it's not been anything too impossible to handle. We should start a poll on when the first El Nino nor'easter will happen. Some sort of nasty mid- to late-October thing, most likely. Mountains will see a few inches of slop and we'll get pounded by mid-40s rain and wind. People will think it's the beginning of a banner winter, but we'll be mild and rainy. My avatar will be happy. Think happy thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 lol, nailed it. If only we had this storm hit in January! Atmospheric memory!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 28, 2015 Share Posted July 28, 2015 All I ask is for the death band to setup over mby early. Enough of that Columbia-Rockville sh*t. Unfortunately this year it'll likely be a death band of 35-degree rain with pity slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 30, 2015 Author Share Posted July 30, 2015 Ops and ensembles converging on a potential legit nice air mass in a week or so. It may have some staying power but pretty muddy out that far. Dews will make this weekend much more tolerable than the last few days. Evenings on the patios will be nice. Even though most of us will be close to or above 90 during the day, it's going to feel a whole lot different than breathing tropical soup like we have this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted July 31, 2015 Share Posted July 31, 2015 Ops and ensembles converging on a potential legit nice air mass in a week or so. It may have some staying power but pretty muddy out that far. Dews will make this weekend much more tolerable than the last few days. Evenings on the patios will be nice. Even though most of us will be close to or above 90 during the day, it's going to feel a whole lot different than breathing tropical soup like we have this week. This morning's GFS Op isn't all that cool. Should break the 90 streak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Nice morning, upper 50's with mid 50's DP and a nice 5-10 WNW breeze....winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Low of 66F here. Warmer than forecast. That was disappointing, was expecting low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 70.8 for the low. 74 at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 I'm surprised at how high some of the lows were last night. Got to 67 here, which I suppose isn't terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 83 and glorious out this morning. No hair gel needed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Low of 64.6 in Oak Hill. Up to 83 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 No problem keeping the 90 string going at DCA. 86.6 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 GFS MOS is + departures through day 7. The cooldown is looking only marginally cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 86. Gorgeous day for early August. Nice breeze, low dews, pretty sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 92/65 @ DCA, 90/67 imby. The W/SW wind off the Potomac always spikes the dewpoint on my station. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted August 1, 2015 Share Posted August 1, 2015 Going to run the sprinkler for the first time this evening. July was fairly dry...just under 2.5" of rain here for the month. Grass is browning up in the more sun exposed parts of the yard the last few days, plus I am in the woods with silt/sandy soil. Drys up fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.