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July 2015 Discussion


Powerball

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In talking with my parents out in Southern Oregon (Grants Pass), they would gladly trade for our weather.  They have been absolutely baking out there, and can't buy a drop of rain. 

 

Yeah. Trust me, I'd send the 16"+ of rain I've seen this month out west if I could.

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Usually, just  from my own experience, I always thought July, especially post July 4th, brought the heat waves to this part of the country.  From what I have been able to gather, for the foreseeable future, the heat is being held in abeyance for now.  I would imagine that large heat dome/ridge that is over the west and northwest will eventually have to find it's way to this part of the country.   What are the long term prospects for oppressive heat, if any, for this subforum? 

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classic powerball

 

The fact is, overall, it's been an pretty disappointing June as far as Summer-like weather.

 

It's not just considering the averages, but also considering the relentless rain, the excessive cloudiness and the virtual lack of heat (at least here). 

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Thanks to the vast majority of the days having above normal lows (which goes back to how cloudy this June has been).

 

The min temps are probably holding the departure up some but DTW has had a 90 degree day and 12 other days with highs of 80+, and the average high doesn't reach 80 until June 16.  If you like big heat, that's bad, but if you like pretty seasonable weather, not so bad.

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This summer has been kinda crappy so far, but I kinda felt like that ship had already sailed when there were still consistent freezes going on in the area in mid-late May. From a totally unscientific standpoint, it just felt like we weren't going to fully recover from that...

But this is Michigan, and the Great Lakes have a very interesting and varying climate depending on water temperatures and all that, so you really never know what to expect.

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The fact is, overall, it's been an pretty disappointing June as far as Summer-like weather.

 

It's not just considering the averages, but also considering the relentless rain, the excessive cloudiness and the virtual lack of heat (at least here). 

The fact is it can get much worse and probably will if we hold the current pattern into July. June hasn't been that bad other than being overly cloudy and rainy. The temperatures have been fine. The expectation that every summer is going to be packed with 90 degree days end over end is a fallacy.

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Last year Hoosier started the Winter thread in July. I'm looking forward to that. 

 

 

The thought of winter is depressing, although it could be interesting if we crank up the Nino to very strong levels.  1) it would tilt the odds toward milder temps, which I'm all in favor of after the last couple winters or 2) if it's blocky, it may make for some interesting times for somebody

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Last night's GFS picked up on a pattern that reminded me of the pattern in mid-late June. Today's 12z run has it again. 

 



 

The key to most of the first half of July is the Typhoon in the West Pacific.

 

The models are still trying to figure it out... whether it's gonna recurve into the Bering or steer into China. There's no doubt the Typhoon will have an impact on our weather... so, until they figure out the Typhoon, there's really low predictability in the US pattern.

 

But the past 4 GFS runs have the Typhoon curving into China. If this is what happens, it would favor a hot spell around the 2nd week of July... much like what it has for the time period after the 4th (which I dunno if it's related).

 



 

For the most part, the past 3 Euro runs agree that the Typhoon is going to hit mainland Asia... although there's been more variability than GFS. During that time period, today's 12z Euro doesn't agree with the GFS on what the pattern will be like in the US. The ensemble means for both models agree with the respective operational model... so who knows. But, again, if the models are right about the Typhoon... it should get hot again around the 12th of July.

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