IrishRob17 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Possible watch later: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1133.html MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1133NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0757 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NY INTO SRN NEW ENGLANDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLEVALID 231257Z - 231400ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENTSUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR SOUTHEASTNY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A FAST-MOVING LINE OF STORMS INSOUTHEAST NY AND NORTHEAST PA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERNEXTENT OF THE HUDSON VALLEY BETWEEN 13-14Z AND THEN TRACK ACROSS SRNNEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 14-16Z.DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND MRMS-CAPPISUGGEST STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A FAST EWD-MOVING LINE OFSTORMS /CURRENTLY IN DELAWARE COUNTY NY/ WAS BEGINNING TORE-INTENSIFY AGAIN. SURFACE HEATING OF A MOIST DOWNSTREAM AIR MASSCOUPLED WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE APRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING...PETERS/MEAD.. 06/23/2015ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...LAT...LON 42417448 42637288 42587156 42327133 41647169 4135721741057360 41107422 41027473 41457469 42417448 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Possible watch later: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1133.html That's for the MCS crapvection over PA/NY. Not the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 That's for the MCS crapvection over PA/NY. Not the main show. I'm simply stating fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Having an MCS lay down an outflow boundary / quasi-front is not the end of the world, especially we're on the south edge of the MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Clouds have taken over here. Hopefully they break soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Peaks of sun. Not fully cloudy. Good sign for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Clouds are quickly moving east and convection looks to head north of us. Gonna be very interesting as most areas already have about 1500 sbcape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 MCS continues to decay although I have turned overcast here in Ramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Up to 84F. Overcast with peaks of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Can't remember the last time we had such strong CAPE, shear and lapse rates all converging over our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Morning convective debris was one of the primary concerns with this set-up. However, I wouldn't say that we're looking at a failed threat just yet. The latest HRRR develops the W PA convection into a line/bowing segment via the strong unidirectional wind shear, which reaches the area by 19z. Nowcasting situation for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Up to 86F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 341NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1010 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFCONNECTICUTMASSACHUSETTSSOUTHERN MAINESOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRENORTHERN NEW JERSEYSOUTHEASTERN NEW YORKRHODE ISLANDSOUTHERN VERMONTCOASTAL WATERS* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1010 AM UNTIL400 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLEISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INCREASEOVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHERN NEWENGLAND AREA...POSING RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THROUGH THISAFTERNOON.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OFCONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF BRIDGEPORTCONNECTICUT. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THEASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 340...AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTIONVECTOR 27040. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Mostly cloudy and up to 85 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'll bet they are going to go TOR WATCH SW of the current watch box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watch Severe Thunderstorm Watch 10:10 AM EDT, 6/23,expires 4:00 PM EDT, 6/23 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts southern Maine southern New Hampshire northern New Jersey southeastern New York Rhode Island southern Vermont coastal waters * effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 1010 am until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible Summary... strong to severe storms are forecast to gradually increase over the next several hours across the northeast/southern New England area... posing risk for damaging winds and hail through this afternoon. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles northeast of Concord New Hampshire to 25 miles south southeast of Bridgeport Connecticut. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (wous64 kwns wou1). Precautionary/preparedness actions... Remember... a Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. Other watch information... continue... ww 340... Aviation... a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Nevermind, another SVR WATCH URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 342NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1015 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFNEW JERSEYPENNSYLVANIACOASTAL WATERS* EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1015 AM UNTIL700 PM EDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLEISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLEA TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLESUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE ANDSPREAD GENERALLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSE MAINLY ADAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL THREAT.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WESTNORTHWEST OF ALTOONA PENNSYLVANIA TO 20 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OFLAKEHURST NEW JERSEY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEETHE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES.&&OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 340...AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFTTO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORMMOTION VECTOR 28030. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I'm a bit confused. All these watches and Hi Res Models are pointing to a near miss? Unless, something gets added SW of the area, I think NWS is thinking differently. So because one high res model showed a miss for NYC proper means that they shouldn't issue a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 This is our line . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Starting to build the CAPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 So because one high res model showed a miss for NYC proper means that they shouldn't issue a watch? I get your point. But your the one, who pointed out that Hi-Res Models are pointing out to a possible NYC miss. Let's just drop this subject and get back to the severe threat of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 It's been sunny all morning and temps around 85F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 That line in NE PA is going to make it here I think. That's probably what the Eastern watch is for, then the second area should go SW of NYC proper which is why the Western watch is three hours longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Sun's back out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Blazing sun now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Beginning to clear out here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 I like how everything looks to sink SE instead of track west to east. I feel we do better severe wise that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 I like how everything looks to sink SE instead of track west to east. I feel we do better severe wise that way. It looks to be pretty much West to East, maybe slightly Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Now, this is nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Don't be surprised if a few areas pick up 2-3" of rain. PWATS are high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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