SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 July fourth showing up on long range guidance. 380 hours away. As of now almost all long range guidance maintains lower heights into the east with strong ridging along the West coast. We'll see how things progress, Can the WAR save the day and produce some heat? Past July 4th's Last year Arthur ruined most of the day and broke the string of nice July 4ths from prior years. Lets go with normal temps 83 - 88 for the select sites. Year...14..13...12....11....10.....09...08....07...06...05...04.....03...02.....01....00...99...98...97...96...95...94...93 EWR:.76..91....97...92...101....83...81....73...89...80...87.....94...100....81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:..74..91....95...88....98.....81...80....73...92...82...83.....93....98.....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:..75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89.....92....97.....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79.....92....99.....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:..74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82.....92....96.....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 July fourth showing up on long range guidance. 380 hours away. As of now almost all long range guidance maintains lower heights into the east with strong ridging along the West coast. We'll see how things progress, Can the WAR save the day and produce some heat? Past July 4th's Last year Arthur ruined most of the day and broke the string of nice July 4ths from prior years. Lets go with normal temps 83 - 88 for the select sites. Year...14..13...12....11....10.....09...08....07...06...05...04.....03...02.....01....00...99...98...97...96...95...94...93 EWR:.76..91....97...92...101....83...81....73...89...80...87.....94...100....81....88...99...86...88...72...84...86...97 LGA:..74..91....95...88....98.....81...80....73...92...82...83.....93....98.....81....84...95...86...87...73...84...83...92 TTN:..75...84....88...95....99....81...80....74...89...84...89.....92....97.....82....87...99...85...84...73...81...83...92 JFK:...76....84...89...86....101...83...82....72...86..78...79.....92....99.....75....81...97...82...89...74...80...83...96 NYC:..74...87....92...86....96....79...78....71...87...83...82.....92....96.....79....84...96...84...85...71...84...86...95 The way this summer is going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 20, 2015 Share Posted June 20, 2015 the first July 4th of my life (1949) was 102 degrees...1966 was 98...1978 had a max of 62 with light rain...1986 had a minimum of 55...coolest for the date...2002 had a minimum of 81...1965 had what was the best July 4th day with a max of 90 with low humidity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 The way this summer is going? I am not sold on this turning into a 2009, 1996 or 1998 type summer. We had a 6 or 7 week stretch of very strong warmth endof April and May. Had a week of cool in June then a week or warmth with a toss days in between. The next days few look warm and humid then do we get 7 - 10 days of troughing before the ridging returns, or sustained troughing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 20, 2015 Author Share Posted June 20, 2015 360 hours away and shrinking and if you believe the latest guidance from 00z 6-20 hints the WAR builds west on/around 7/3. Lots of time and guidance to work out. WIll stick with normal 84 - 88 range.... in WAR we Trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2015 Author Share Posted June 21, 2015 320 Hours to go. Latest overnight guidance continues with lower heights into the Northeast with huge ridge out west 6/28 - 7/3. Beyond there and into the 4th potential for WAR to build west or trough to remain in the east but somewhat retreating north. Either way nothing to change normal temps at this point Caveats with storms/clouds to be examined as we get closer to 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2015 Author Share Posted June 22, 2015 300 hours away and late night guidance maintains strong ridging into the WC and pushing into AK with trough into the northeast. Somewhat of trend to build a southerly flow - this would produce humid, but trough would also increase rain chances. We'll see how things progress today. Once to 11 or 10 days ill throw up some maps. No point now other than upper air argues no real heat and rain chances high 6/29 - 7/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 265 hours away. Latest overnight (6/23 00Z) guidance maintains the ridge out west but the Northeast trough is varying on each suite. GFS most tame and actually elevates heights along the coast for the 4th. ECM showing a lot of southerly flow. So will take the split and say temps near normal still 84 - 88 range. Perhaps increasing hints of more humid flow. Will begin to look at more detail tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 ...DT saying trough in the east right thru july 4th weekend..cool and unsettled..hope not..hoping for a classic beach weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Just about 250 hours away and while the theme of higher heights in the west remains, the subsequent trough over the northeast does retreat a bit towards the Great lakes as SE and WAR fight back by the 3 and 4th. Still some tendency to have more southerly flow but GFS and ECM now showing sw flow as trough pushes back west. Pattern is such for elevated rain/storm chances. But nothing now to make me change the normal 84 - 88 on the day. 12z will get us into 240 and will post some maps later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 24, 2015 Share Posted June 24, 2015 Not the best look on the 00z EPS mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2015 Author Share Posted June 24, 2015 Can you post 240? This is tracking the 4th. The trough has retreated west a bit on the 00z but certainly not ur best summer upper air charts. But I don't see why with what is projected it can't get to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 Just under 10 days or 228 hours to ho now. 12z guidance continues to retreat the trough back towards the Great Lakes as the southeast ridge and WAR force resistance while expanding heights. No reason to believe 84 - 88 for highs and building humidity. GFS and ECM rain free but still plenty of time to see things progress... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted June 26, 2015 Share Posted June 26, 2015 KNYC records for 7/4 Highest max. Lowest max. Highest min. Lowest min. Max. Precipitation.102 in 1949....62 in 1978....81 in 2002....55 in 1986....1.76" in 1981..99 in 1919....64 in 1941....79 in 1999....57 in 1938....1.20" in 1872..98 in 1966....68 in 1909....78 in 1876....58 in 1882....1.20" in 1895..97 in 1911....69 in 1895....78 in 1908....58 in 1909....1.19" in 1978..97 in 1955....70 in 1882....78 in 1974....58 in 1978....1.11" in 1967..96 in 1999....70 in 1954....78 in 1983....58 in 1979....1.06" in 1906..96 in 2002....71 in 2007....77 in 2006....59 in 1963....1.00" in 1889..96 in 2010..96 in 1898.1939...http://www.nycsubway...erl/show?113363 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 26, 2015 Author Share Posted June 26, 2015 12z Guidance continues to show trough retreating north towards Great Lakes by Saturday the 4th as the WAR and SE ridge build heights into the EC. Storms from Thu/Fri 2/3rd look to clear out by Friday night. At this point 4 - 6 look normal. Still gogin 84 - 99 range. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 GFS: ECM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 Overnight guidance pushed storms later and now into Saturday (the 4th) morning. We'll see how the timing of the front continues. As of now no reason to maintain normal temps in that flow with scattered storms clearing out by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Overnight guidance pushed storms later and now into Saturday (the 4th) morning. We'll see how the timing of the front continues. As of now no reason to maintain normal temps in that flow with scattered storms clearing out by morning. Agree. Right now, I think the safe bet is about 84-88F high temperatures with a slight chances of T-storms. Could be a fairly "normal" 4th of July. Doesn't look like any significant heat or cool down for the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 How's it looking for the holiday? Sunny day and barbecue or rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 How's it looking for the holiday? Sunny day and barbecue or rain?Guidance has trended drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 most recent Candian brought a quick hitting slug of moisture north over the area for early Friday morning. Then clean for the rest of the weekend. GFS is clean through the whole weekend right now verbatim. Not sure what the Euro did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 The temperatures look really comfortable for the 4th with a SE flow. Models have mid 70's to around 80 in NYC depending on the amount of cloud cover and onshore flow. NYC July 4th stats http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/4thofJulywx.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 The temperatures look really comfortable for the 4th with a SE flow. Models have mid 70's to around 80 in NYC depending on the amount of cloud cover and onshore flow. NYC July 4th stats http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/4thofJulywx.pdf Not a good thing for the jones beach Fire work show which is back after being cancled since 2008. If the ceiling is low it completely ruins the show which happened during one of the first years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Summer will fly by without any heat to speak of. You'll blink and it'll be mid August and noticeably darker earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Upper and mid level clouds(more easterly wind) on guidance for Long Island look to be around the area for the morning with gradual clearing for the late afternoon and evening. Mid level clouds look to hang around New Jersey till mid-morning then clearing afterwards. Hudson valley looks fine for the whole day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 1, 2015 Share Posted July 1, 2015 Its going to be a beach weekend...thats the bottom line...enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 NAM now has a pretty crappy 4th for the Jersey shore beaches (it's not the only model showing that) I hope it ticks south again as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 NAM now has a pretty crappy 4th for the Jersey shore beaches (it's not the only model showing that) I hope it ticks south again as we get closer.The 00z GFS isn't bad at all and the GGEM is just overnight into Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Summer will fly by without any heat to speak of. You'll blink and it'll be mid August and noticeably darker earlier. I'd tend to agree. Wonder if it will be like last year where the only heat we got was centered on the 1st week of Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 2, 2015 Share Posted July 2, 2015 Lol it only flies by if you sit in your house and long for snowmen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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