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Summer 2015 pattern discussion


GaWx

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Not by our standards....kinda dry RH is around 50, DP is upper 60's and there is a breeze not to bad overall..... its worse when its 88-92 with upper 70's DP and 75% RH those days are the worst.  I will take 100 anytime over that because usually if we hit 100 the RH and DP are lower and it actually feels 100-102 versus 110 on the other days.

Got ya. It in the 70s here with hit and miss storms, so its pretty humind here today.

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Not sure where all the 100 degree talk is coming from, but if we're looking at the 12z GFS, you will not find an upper air pattern that supports any sort of widespread 100 degree days across the SE. What you will see is considerable troughing in the east and southeast, with widespread precipitation chances for most of the run. Only in the last frame of the run...at 384...will you find any semblance of broad-based ridging. And with soil moisture high and the ridging not optimally positioned for a heat wave, I'd seriously doubt any 100 degree readings (on more than an isolated basis) for the next 15 days at least, if the GFS is correct.

(Incidentally, the Euro looks similar through 240).

The first image shows the upper air pattern for the GFS at 24, 72, 144, and 192. The second shows the same at 240, 288, 324, and 384. I just took random samples that were illustrative of the pattern throughout the period, which shows no heat waves. I'm sorry about the colors. I don't know why it does that, but they're pretty terrible.

Image 1:

post-987-0-63743700-1433189051_thumb.jpg

Image 2:

post-987-0-90647800-1433189062_thumb.jpg

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It's time for GSP to drop pops to 20% the rest of this evening. I also think the models are wrong about the rest of this week. Look at the radar from around Nashville TN and Columbus Miss on to the west. That's this week's weather for this area. Dry.

I know how you feel living in an area that can't buy a drop of rain.

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It's time for GSP to drop pops to 20% the rest of this evening. I also think the models are wrong about the rest of this week. Look at the radar from around Nashville TN and Columbus Miss on to the west. That's this week's weather for this area. Dry.

 

You have an interesting approach to the NWS.

 

When I see a forecast that I don't understand or doesn't seem to match current conditions, I tend to think, "GSP must know something of which I am unaware.  Since they're the trained mets, they've probably got a pretty good handle on this."

 

Your approach seems to be, "What is GSP thinking?  They must be mad.  How can they possibly produce this forecast with the current conditions?"

 

It's just a totally different point of view...

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You have an interesting approach to the NWS.

 

When I see a forecast that I don't understand or doesn't seem to match current conditions, I tend to think, "GSP must know something of which I am unaware.  Since they're the trained mets, they've probably got a pretty good handle on this."

 

Your approach seems to be, "What is GSP thinking?  They must be mad.  How can they possibly produce this forecast with the current conditions?"

 

It's just a totally different point of view...

I've been right about summer storms much more than they have over the years. It's all about radar trends. i would never go over 20% in pops during the summer despite what any models are showing until the first few storms develop. Then you can raise the pops. 

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I've been right about summer storms much more than they have over the years. It's all about radar trends. i would never go over 20% in pops during the summer despite what any models are showing until the first few storms develop. Then you can raise the pops.

That should be their approach on snow as well! When it's snowing, say it will snow
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I've been right about summer storms much more than they have over the years. It's all about radar trends. i would never go over 20% in pops during the summer despite what any models are showing until the first few storms develop. Then you can raise the pops. 

And the trend this spring has been for predominately warm/hot and dry. 

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I think the rain for this week is being overhyped. Yes, there will be some storms, but nothing widespread and only last for an hour and then move on.

Based on what? The ULL that's bringing us the heavier precip Tues Wed Thur is just now moving into Western KY/TN. We won't feel it's affects until it slowly drifts closer; meanwhile, a front is sinking south through the mid-Atlantic states will become the focal point for more precipitation. Whoever got something in the Triangle today should consider it a bonus to the weeks' event still to unfold.

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Based on what? The ULL that's bringing us the heavier precip Tues Wed Thur is just now moving into Western KY/TN. We won't feel it's affects until it slowly drifts closer; meanwhile, a front is sinking south through the mid-Atlantic states will become the focal point for more precipitation. Whoever got something in the Triangle today should consider it a bonus to the weeks' event still to unfold.

Okay, we just have to wait and see. Guess I am getting tired of these storms turning out to be duds. I would rather have sunny and warm, but if we are going to get some storms at least be something worth while.

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I've been right about summer storms much more than they have over the years. It's all about radar trends. i would never go over 20% in pops during the summer despite what any models are showing until the first few storms develop. Then you can raise the pops. 

 

Looks like there's a line of storms incoming for Jonesville, SC...

 

In fact, the coverage of storms has really ramped up over the last few hours.

 

post-4420-0-65882800-1433201125_thumb.gi

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WxSouth just posted on facebook that all the models were very wrong about the location of the upper low and were off by several hundred miles.

Brick this is a forecast you should like for our area(from NWS):

Tonight
Scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. South wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 65. Light and variable wind becoming south around 5 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 75. East wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Wednesday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 63. East wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Thursday
A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Thursday Night
Showers and thunderstorms likely before 10pm, then a chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Friday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Saturday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Sunday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 84. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
 
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WxSouth just posted on facebook that all the models were very wrong about the location of the upper low and were off by several hundred miles.

They were wrong about the hundreds a week or two ago, they were wrong about all the rain this week, they never get snow or ice right! Why do we even have models? Just make the poor forecasters look bad and I guess we look stupid for believing the forecasts at face value
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It's time for GSP to drop pops to 20% the rest of this evening. I also think the models are wrong about the rest of this week. Look at the radar from around Nashville TN and Columbus Miss on to the west. That's this week's weather for this area. Dry.

 

LOL you wanna rethink this post????......also why would you look out west when the flow is coming from the S and SE, the flow will bring the moisture and the sun does the rest, add a ULL for some upper level cold air and it equals rain. This time of year you cant get a setup like this without widespread rain/storms....it doesn't mean everyone gets rain everyday but by the end of the week most of us will have seen it rain and rain quite a bit at that.

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Been pouring and thundering here all afternoon/evening. We got under a good storm yesterday too.

This simply cannot be the truth. GSP has 20% pops. The ULL is off by hundreds of miles. The models are overdoing it again. They're as bad with rain and temps as with snow. If it's not raining at my house, then it's not raining and the models and NWS forecasters are wrong. It's 100f and dry. You know it is, man. Stop playing!

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This simply cannot be the truth. GSP has 20% pops. The ULL is off by hundreds of miles. The models are overdoing it again. They're as bad with rain and temps as with snow. If it's not raining at my house, then it's not raining and the models and NWS forecasters are wrong. It's 100f and dry. You know it is, man. Stop playing!

Truth and Robert said so
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