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June 1st-6th Severe Events


Quincy

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COD crew just tweeted a pic of a large tornado near Stratton earlier (Vona cell): https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CGxp9oeXIAEinpg.jpg:large

 

What a day. Tough but very rewarding after many different decisions. Got north of Stratton at the perfect time and got to watch it begin from a great vantage point on the top of a hill. 

 

Will post some pictures and video hopefully later tonight. 

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Pretty strong rotation just north of Winona in Kansas. Could be a close call for the town.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  NORTH CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT* AT 927 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER WINONA...OR 19  MILES WEST OF OAKLEY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO EAST OF WINONA.
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Definitely looks that way.

 

Wow.

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR NORTHCENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY...AT 935 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WASLOCATED NEAR WINONA...OR 17 MILES WEST OF OAKLEY...MOVING EAST AT 15MPH.THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO. AT 935 PM CDT...A RAIN-         WRAPPED TORNADO CONTINUES ON THE GROUND AT THIS TIME EAST         OF WINONA AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.
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STILL in progress...

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR SOUTH

CENTRAL THOMAS AND NORTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES...

AT 1014 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF MONUMENT...OR 12 MILES WEST OF

OAKLEY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS MAY

BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES

WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO

HOMES...BUSINESSES AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE

DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MONUMENT.

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Caught an intermittent tail end Charlie tornado by Winona a little after sunset. After missing on the Colorado storms, decided to get east and noticed that the end of the line in western Kansas was beginning to deviate right. The reports of a large tornado are erroneous. As usual, it was accompanied by a very low, but expansive wall cloud and attendant inflow. At night with some obstructions and yet another supposed large tornado that wasn't large.

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Caught an intermittent tail end Charlie tornado by Winona a little after sunset. After missing on the Colorado storms, decided to get east and noticed that the end of the line in western Kansas was beginning to deviate right. The reports of a large tornado are erroneous. As usual, it was accompanied by a very low, but expansive wall cloud and attendant inflow. At night with some obstructions and yet another supposed large tornado that wasn't large.

well the actual reports said that it was a "large stovepipe" and think that the GLD NWS more so decided to just put that wording in the warnings... A stovepipe isn't usually that impressively large compared to a cone or wedge. Nevertheless, it did seem to be a fairly long lived tornado basing off of the reports, warnings, and radar.
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For the Winona vicinity tornadic supercell, I witnessed a funnel begin to lower and start kicking up dirt at 9:22 p.m. Three minutes later, NWS Goodland "confirmed" a tornado, so the touchdown was likely right around those times.

 

Here's a photo from 9:45 p.m. and you can just make out the tornado. This was 5 ESE Winona, KS:
post-533-0-51959300-1433570825_thumb.jpg

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At least per models and current trends, eastern Nebraska appears to be the best "traditional" target today. More thunderstorm development is likely further west across the High Plains too.

The overlay of CAPE and shear looks solid in this region and an outflow boundary from the morning convection can work as a focal point. VAD profile data from UEX shows decent turning in the low levels with 30+ knot winds in the boundary layer. Sizeable hodographs are shown on the models for the area, particularly around Lincoln/Omaha and points just NW. Some capping may hold off initiation until late, however.

HRRR for Omaha late this afternoon:

post-533-0-45666500-1433598991_thumb.jpg

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Mesoanalysis has been showing upwards of 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH in southeastern Nebraska. With that ramping up tonight, I could see a tornado threat persisting for a few hours after sunset from northeastern Nebraska into far northwestern Iowa. I also think the environment can support a strong tornado.

HRRR forecast sounding for the Omaha area early this evening. Impressive low-level helicity. This is the inflow region for storms expected to develop to the northwest.

post-533-0-84646000-1433616024_thumb.jpg

Edit for calcification on geographical area.

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Mesoanalysis has been showing upwards of 200 m2/s2 0-1km SRH in southeastern Nebraska. With that ramping up tonight, I could see a tornado threat persisting for a few hours after sunset from far eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. I also think the environment can support a strong tornado.

HRRR forecast sounding for the Omaha area early this evening. Impressive low-level helicity.

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

 

Don't really see how you force a storm down there with that nose. I think it's more NW of GRI or up to northeast NE as the two plays. 

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Don't really see how you force a storm down there with that nose. I think it's more NW of GRI or up to northeast NE as the two plays.

HRRR sounding points are limited. FWIW I am targeting northeastern Nebraska.
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I guess you could say instability is a little high across parts of the Dakotas. LOL

rrFzW7A.jpg

basically every instability parameter is messed up on the SPC meso page... Lol. Is something drastically wrong with the RAP?
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Perhaps now we will legitimately get the ball rolling on this event.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  433 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2015    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A    * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...    NORTHWESTERN KEARNEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...    NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...    BUFFALO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...    * UNTIL 515 PM CDT    * AT 433 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ODESSA...OR    8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KEARNEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.      HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.       SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.       IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL              DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT              WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.     * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...    KEARNEY...GIBBON...RAVENNA...SHELTON...ODESSA...RIVERDALE AND    POOLE.    THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 258 AND 287.     
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