Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

June 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

June stats for KNYC...

June......Ave temp...max...min...ave max/min...
1870's.....70.4.......na.....na.....na.....na
1880's.....70.5.......96.....48.....91.0.....51.5
1890's.....70.9.......97.....48.....93.6.....53.4
1900's.....70.0.......95.....48.....91.1.....52.7
1910's.....69.0.......95.....47.....90.9.....51.1
1920's.....70.1.......99.....45.....92.7.....51.0
1930's.....71.6.....101.....47.....93.7.....52.4
1940's.....71.5.......99.....44.....93.9.....51.1
1950's.....71.2.....100.....48.....94.2.....51.9
1960's.....72.0.....101.....48.....95.5.....52.7
1970's.....71.0.......95.....46.....91.1.....52.0
1980's.....71.7.......98.....47.....92.7.....52.6
1990's.....72.2.......98.....49.....92.8.....52.6
2000's.....71.3.......96.....49.....91.4.....52.5

2010's.....72.6.......95.....51.....92.4.....54.4
1870/1880-
2009 ave 70.9.....101.....44.....92.7.....52.1
1980-
2009 ave 71.7.......98.....47.....92.3.....52.6

.............................................................................

warmest average temperature and year.
76.2 1943
75.4 1966
75.2 1994
74.6 2010
74.5 1984
74.3 1925
74.3 1949
74.3 1957
74.2 1971
74.1 1991
74.1 1899

coolest
64.2 1903
65.2 1881
65.7 1916
66.8 1926
66.8 1902
67.2 1958
67.3 1927
67.4 1928
67.5 2009
67.5 1897


wettest June and year
10.27 2003

10.10 2013
10.06 2009
9.78 1903
9.30 1972
8.79 1989
8.55 2006
7.76 1887
7.58 1975
7.13 1938
7.05 1871
7.04 1928
6.88 1922

driest
0.02 1949
0.59 1999
0.98 1894
1.00 1901
1.14 1880
1.17 1966
1.25 1898
1.26 1906
1.27 1965
1.27 1908

warmest max. temperature and year
101 1966
101 1934
100 1952
99 1925
99 1943
99 1956
99 1964
Coolest max. temperature and year
81 1903
84 2009
84 1886
84 1916
85 1985
86 1928
86 1972
coolest min. temperature and year
44 1945...6/1
45 1929...6/3
46 1972...6/11
47 1938...6/1
47 1946...6/3
47 1945...6/6
47 1945...6/5
47 1879...6/7
47 1915...6/3
47 1932...6/8
47 1980...6/9
warmest monthly min. temp. and year.
58 1892
58 1911
58 1952
58 1981
58 1989
...................................................................

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cool start to June on the 18z GFS with the rain Monday-Tuesday, a gradual warm-up later in the week, and then another Canadian high pressure building south by next weekend (6/6)..

 

-EPO will make it hard for any major heat to invade the region. That ridging over AK and Northwest Canada is so persistent and likely to be a major feature this summer. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ridge and warmth rebuilds on/around 4/th/5th through the 9th before next cold front and trough moves through the area.  This is looking like a continuation of an overall warm pattern but no strong or prolonged heat (yet).   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EPS is now backing off the warmer temps for early June that it was showing just three

days ago. Notice how a broad area of ridging that was forecast for the Northeast has been

replaced by a trough.

 

12z 5/28

 

 

12z 5/31

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EPS is now backing off the warmer temps for early June that it was showing just three

days ago. Notice how a broad area of ridging that was forecast for the Northeast has been

replaced by a trough.

 

12z 5/28

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

12z 5/31

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_8.png

The GEFS won this battle. This week is for everyone that refused to acknowledge that a pattern shift was taking place. This should make JM happy. Nearly zero measurable rain in Texas over the next seven days.

 

p168i.gif?1433164329

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The GEFS won this battle. This week is for everyone that refused to acknowledge that a pattern shift was taking place. This should make JM happy. Nearly zero measurable rain in Texas over the next seven days.

 

 

 

What battle? The Euro has been showing the same shift to cooler and wetter with the ridge over the East flattening out.

The only questions from last week was where the zone of heaviest rains would set up which was refined

in the short term forecasts the last few days.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What battle? The Euro has been showing the same shift to cooler and wetter with the ridge over the East flattening out.

The only questions from last week was where the zone of heaviest rains would set up which was refined

in the short term forecasts the last few days.

Go to the May thread. I just pulled 3 of your posts from when you were calling for the dry pattern to continue.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Go to the May thread. I just pulled 3 of your posts from when you were calling for the dry pattern to continue.

 

Never called for the dry pattern to continue. I said the bone dry pattern was over and we just need to wait for later

runs to see who gets the best rains in the region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Never called for the dry pattern to continue. I said the bone dry pattern was over and we just need to wait for later

runs to see who gets the best rains in the region.

I was also told about how bad the GEFS have been when they showed a trough and the EPS was showing a ridge, but that's okay. The bottom line is that the pattern shift has occurred, and next weekend looks stormy as well. Hopefully this is the start of an above average rainfall pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was also told about how bad the GEFS have been when they showed a trough and the EPS was showing a ridge, but that's okay. The bottom line is that the pattern shift has occurred, and next weekend looks stormy as well. Hopefully this is the start of an above average rainfall pattern.

 

You were told that the GFS had been showing feedback problems which was true for the last month where areas

south of Long Island were showing too much rain. The Euro agreed with the heavy rain idea which was initially

over NNJ but shifted east with the 12z on Sunday to include NYC through Queens. So in instances where the

Euro agrees with the GFS you have more confidence than just buying the GFS alone.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ridge and warmth rebuilds on/around 4/th/5th through the 9th before next cold front and trough moves through the area.  This is looking like a continuation of an overall warm pattern but no strong or prolonged heat (yet).   

 

 

Lower heights look to hang around now for much of the week into next week as the lattest guidance continues to hold off on warmth.  Suspect we'll run -2 to -4 below normal now through the 10th.    We'll see how things progress and if ridging returns mid month.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the month as a whole may finish very close to normal. With each run, modelling is becoming more bullish on the development of a mid level trough over the Lakes. This could be the mean pattern for the summer as well. Not seeing any prolonged heat, or even heat wave opportunities, through mid June. We'll probably see a burst of heat around June 15th-20th per current indications.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What a difference a day makes. For those who love summer weather, today is a real kick in the midsection

 

NYC:  55F

EWR:  56F

 

 

Unfortunately for those of us who like high heat in the summer, I'm afraid we're seeing the summer pattern revealing itself now. The May regime of well above normal looks long gone for the coming weeks. The good news is I think convective opportunities will be numerous this summer given the trough / ridge orientation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One day of rain and you are declaring the summer pattern..oh vay

 

Guidance has trended into  lingering lower heights into the east thru D10 with only a few bursts of warmth scattered in.  We will need to rely on the WAR building west to get sustained heat.  I want warmth more than anyone - but the signal is bare at the moment, although I do suspect we beat last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One day of rain and you are declaring the summer pattern..oh vay

 

 

My assessment of the summer pattern isn't based upon one day of rain. Read my summer outlook thread if you're actually interested in reading the reasoning that led to certain conclusions. I know you want a brutally hot / dry summer, but we have to be objective and scientific here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...