June 2015 temperature forecast contest

[Roger Smith]

The June temperature forecast contest is open for entries. As there is a weekend at the end of May, and I was a bit late posting this, I will not start time penalties until Monday afternoon (18z or 2 p.m. EDT). This is half a day later than usual. Penalties will remain somewhat relaxed through all of the 2nd as they will accumulate at the usual rate, 1% every 2h for 24h to 18z on Tuesday, after which they will run at 1% per hour.

 

As always, the challenge is to predict anomalies (in F deg) for these nine locations, relative to the 1981-2010 normals.

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

Also, take note that I have opened up a separate hurricane (tropical season) contest which you will find in this same general forum as a pinned thread. Entries for that are also due by June 1st to avoid penalties.

[Stebo]

DCA +2.0

NYC +1.7

BOS +1.3

ORD +0.9

ATL +1.9

IAH -2.2

DEN -1.2

PHX -1.5

SEA -1.3

[Rjay]

DCA +2.9

NYC +2.9

BOS +2.5

ORD +1.2

ATL +2.3

IAH +0.6

DEN -2.0

PHX -1.0

SEA -0.5

Edited: May 29th

[WEATHER53]

All stations +2.0.

[Damage In Tolland]

DCA +2.9

NYC +2.1
BOS +1.6
ORD +2.5
ATL +2.3
IAH +1.1
DEN +0.3
PHX +0.8
SEA  + 0.1

[Maxim]

DCA +2.6

NYC +2.3
BOS +1.4 
ORD +1.7
ATL +2.2 
IAH -2.0
DEN -2.5 
PHX +0.5
SEA +2.0

[Mallow]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+0.9 ____+1.4 __+1.5 ___ -1.2 ___+0.3  ___-0.6 _______+1.0  ___+2.8 ____+2.6

 

EDITED: 16z 6/1

[Tom]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH_____DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+0.8 ____+0.5 __+0.5 _ -1.9 __-0.1 __-0.7 ___+0.9 __+2.1 ___+2.3

[Rjay]

DCA +2.9

NYC +2.9

BOS +2.5

ORD +1.2

ATL +2.3

IAH +0.5

DEN -0.5

PHX -0.5

SEA -0.5

Edited: May 30th

[ksammut]

 

 

 

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

-0.6___-1.4___-2.3___-1.9___-1.8___-2.0______-1.2___-2.2___+2.0

 

 

 

[Scotty Lightning]

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

 

1.0    1.5     1.0           0.5     1.0     1.0             2.0     1.5     1.0 

[dmillz25]

DCA +1.4

NYC +1.2

BOS +0.9

ORD +2.3

ATL +1.2

IAH -1.3

DEN -1.9

PHX +1.0

SEA +1.3

[donsutherland1]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH_____DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+0.3 ____+0.5 __+0.3 _ -1.0 __-1.1 __-1.5 ___+0.6 __+1.6 ___+1.8

[bkviking]

DCA +1.1

NYC +1.0

BOS +0.8

ORD +0.6

ATL +1.7

IAH -2.0

DEN -1.2

PHX -0.9

SEA -1.2

[Isotherm]

DCA: +0.1

NYC: +0.3

BOS: +0.3

ORD: -0.5

ATL: -0.6

IAH: -1.2

DEN: +1.5

PHX: +1.5

SEA: +3.7

[RodneyS]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH_____DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+1.0 ____+0.1 __+0.3 _     -1.2 __-0.3 ___    -1.7 __     +2.2 ___   -0.4      +1.3

[Midlo Snow Maker]

DCA +3.0

NYC +2.5

BOS +1.9

ORD +1.3

ATL +1.8

IAH -1.9

DEN +1.1

PHX +1.9

SEA +3.5

[blazess556]

DCA +2.2

NYC +1.9

BOS +1.5

ORD +1.1

ATL +1.8

IAH -2.0

DEN -1.1

PHX -1.4

SEA -1.2

[wxdude64]

DCA +2.2

NYC +1.8

BOS +1.0

ORD -2.1

ATL +1.7

IAH -0.4

DEN +2.3

PHX +0.2

SEA +1.9

[Roger Smith]

DCA +4.3

NYC +2.5

BOS --0,1

 

ORD +1.0

ATL +3.5

IAH +0.3

 

DEN --1.5

PHX --1.2

SEA +1.9

 

Just a reminder, you can edit up to 18z today as entries will not be subject to time penalties until then.

 

Final scoring is underway in the May thread.

[wxallannj]

DCA +1.4

NYC +1.2

BOS +0.9

ORD +0.2

ATL +1.7

IAH +0.3

DEN -0.9

PHX -1.5

SEA +0.5

[dmillz25]

DCA +1.4

NYC +1.2

BOS +0.9

ORD +2.3

ATL +1.2

IAH -1.3

DEN -1.9

PHX +1.0

SEA +1.3

Final numbers for june after editing

[hudsonvalley21]

DCA _____NYC____BOS____ORD____ATL_____IAH________DEN_____PHX_____SEA

+0.6 ____+0.7 __+1.0 ___ -0.3 ___+1.0  ___-0.1 _______+1.6  ___+2.1 ____+2.0

[Absolute Humidity]

DCA: +1.5

NYC: +2.3

BOS: +1.1

ORD: -0.7

ATL: -1.2

IAH: -0.6

DEN: -0.4

PHX: +2.2

SEA: +1.9

[Roger Smith]

Table of Forecasts for June 2015

 

 

FORECASTER __________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

Roger Smith ___________________+4.3_ +2.5_ --0.1___ +1.0_ +3.5_ +0.3____ --1.5_ --1.2_ +1.9

Midlo Snow Maker ______________ +3.0_ +2.5_ +1.9___ +1.3_ +1.8_ --1.9____ +1.1_ +1.9_ +3.5

Rjay _________________________ +2.9_ +2.9_ +2.5___ +1.2_ +2.3_ +0.5____ --0.5_ --0.5_ --0.5

Damage in Tolland ______________+2.9_ +2.1_ +1.6___ +2.5_ +2.3_ +1.1____ +0.3_ +0.8_ +0.1

Maxim ________________________+2.6_ +2.3_ +1.4___+1.7_ +2.2_ --2.0____ --2.5_ +0.5_ +2.0

Blazess556 ____________________+2.2_ +1.9_ +1.5___ +1.1_ +1.8_ --2.0____ --1.1_ --1.4_ --1.2

wxdude64 ____________________ +2.2_ +1.8_ +1.0___ --2.1_ +1.7_ --0.4____ +2.3_ +0.2_ +1.9

Tenman Johnson _______________ +2.0_ +2.0_ +2.0___ +2.0_ +2.0_ +2.0

Stebo ________________________ +2.0_ +1.7_ +1.3___ +0.9_ +1.9_ --2.2____ --1.2_ --1.5_ --1.3

Absolute Humidity __ (-5%) ______ +1.5_ +2.3_ +1.1___ --0.7_ --1.2_ --0.6____ --0.4_ +2.2_ +1.9

dmillz25 ______________________ +1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9___ +2.3_ +1.2_ --1.3____ --1.9_ +1.0_ +1.3

 

Consensus ____________________ +1.4_ +1.5_ +1.1___ +0.5_ +1.7_ --0.7_____ 0.0_ +0.7_ +1.9

 

wxallannj _____________________ +1.4_ +1.2_ +0.9___ +0.2_ +1.7_ +0.3____ --0.9_ --1.5_ +0.5

BKViking ______________________+1.1_ +1.0_ +0.8___ +0.6_ +1.7_ --2.0____--1.2_ --0.9_ --1.2

SD ___________________________+1.0_ +1.5_ +1.0___ +0.5_ +1.0_ +1.0____ +2.0_ +1.5_ +1.0

RodneyS ______________________+1.0_ +0.1_ +0.3___ --1.2_ --0.3_ --1.7____ +2.2_ --0.4_ +1.3

Mallow _______________________ +0.9_ +1.4_ +1.5___ --1.2_ +0.3_ --0.6____ +1.0_ +2.8_ +2.6

Tom _________________________ +0.8_ +0.5_ +0.5___ --1.9_ --0.1_ --0.7____ +0.9_ +2.1_ +2.3

hudsonvalley21 ____ (-2%) _______+0.6_ +0.7_ +1.0___ --0.3_ +1.0_ --0.1____ +1.6_ +2.1_ +2.0

DonSutherland.1 ________________+0.3_ +0.5_ +0.3___ --1.0_ --1.1_ --1.5____ +0.6_ +1.6_ +1.8

Isotherm ______________________+0.1_ +0.3_ +0.3___ --0.5_ --0.6_ --1.2____ +1.5_ +1.5_ +3.7
 

Normal ________________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0____ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0

 

ksammut _____________________ --0.6_ --1.4_ --2.3___ --1.9_ --1.8_ --2.0____--1.2_ --2.2_ +2.0

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

21 entries (20 western), consensus is median value (11th ranked, mean of 10th/11th for western)
 

 

[Roger Smith]

After the first week (and then ten, twelve and fourteen days) ... BOS failed to reach 50F on the first two days and it was 88F on Sunday 7th in Seattle ... rapid warming since the last report, while the far west slowly cools towards more average values (it has been fabulous here since the month began more or less).

 

_______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

_____ (7d) _____ --2.4 __ --7.6 _ --10.5 ___ --3.4 _ +0.5 _ --0.4 ____ +1.8 _ --1.1 _ +5.4

____ (10d) _____ --0.5 __ --4.2 __ --6.6 ___ +0.2 _ +1.0 _ +0.1 ____ +2.3 _ --0.8 _ +6.7

____ (12d) _____ +1.2 __ --1.9 __ --4.0 ___ --0.7 _ +1.0 _ +0.3 ____ +1.5 _ --0.5 _ +5.9

____ (14d) _____ +2.4 __ --0.6 __ --2.9 ___ +0.1 _ +1.3 __ 0.0 ____ +1.6 ___0.0 _ +5.7

 

____(p21d) _____ +3.5 __ +1.5 __ --1.5 ___ +1.5 _ +2.8 _ --0.5 ____ +2.5 _ +2.3 _ +4.7

 

 

____ (p30d) ____ +3.9 __ +2.5 ___  0.0 ___ +2.4 _ +2.7 _ +0.1 ____ +2.5 _ +2.5 _ +3.5

 

The first line of forecasts is based on NWS 7-d and the second line on days 8 to 16 of GFS blended in.

(7th) _ The pattern looks rather bland after this week's expected east-central heat wave.

(10th) _ The 7-d is extended to 16-d by taking estimates of +4 for most stations in that nine day period, reduced to +2 for SEA, PHX and IAH, as the pattern looks generally warm.

(12th) _ Just minor changes to most of the (near) end of month projections as the pattern appears to lock into considerable warmth in most places.

(14th) _ Little change to the previous projections although PHX has been boosted while IAH suppressed.

 

Next update will be in a new daily countdown post tomorrow.

[Absolute Humidity]

June bust fest in progress.

[Roger Smith]

__ Continuing the countdown daily now in a new post, scroll back to find previous anomalies __

 

_______________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ____ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

____ (15d) _____ +3.0 __ --0.5 __ --3.3 ___ +0.4 _ +1.7 _ +0.1 ____ +1.2 _ +0.6 _ +6.1

____ (16d) _____ +3.4 __ --0.4 __ --3.4 ___ +0.1 _ +2.0 _ --0.1e____+1.3 _ +1.0 _ +5.8

____ (17d) _____ +3.4 __ --0.3 __ --3.4 ___ --0.3 _ +2.4 _ --0.4 ____ +1.2 _ +1.4 _ +5.7

____ (18d) _____ +3.5 __ --0.5 __ --3.4 ___ --0.3 _ +2.6 _ --0.5 ____ +1.2 _ +1.9 _ +5.7

____ (19d) _____ +3.6 __ --0.3 __ --2.9 ___ --0.8 _ +2.6 _ --0.5 ____ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +5.6

____ (20d) _____ +3.8 __ --0.4 __ --2.9 ___ --1.0 _ +2.7 _ --0.4 ____ +1.6 _ +2.2 _ +5.6

____ (21d) _____ +3.9 __ --0.1 __ --2.8 ___ --0.7 _ +2.8 _ --0.3 ____ +1.8 _ +2.5 _ +5.5

____ (22d) _____ +4.2 __ +0.2 __ --2.7 ___ --0.5 _ +3.0 _ --0.2 ____ +1.7 _ +2.5 _ +5.5

____ (23d) _____ +4.3 __ +0.5 __ --2.4 ___ --0.5 _ +3.1 _ --0.2 ____ +1.7 _ +2.7 _ +5.4

____ (24d) _____ +4.1 __ +0.6 __ --2.1 ___ --0.5 _ +3.1 _ --0.2 ____ +2.0 _ +2.8 _ +5.5

____ (25d) _____ +4.0 __ +0.6 __ --2.0 ___ --0.6 _ +3.1 _ --0.1 ____ +2.0 _ +3.0 _ +5.7

____ (26d) _____ +3.7 __ +0.6 __ --2.1 ___ --0.9 _ +3.1 __ 0.0 ____ +1.9 _ +3.1 _ +6.0

____ (27d) _____ +3.4 __ +0.2 __ --2.3 ___ --1.1 _ +2.9 _ --0.1 ____ +1.9 _+3.2e_ +6.4

____ (28d) _____ +3.2 __ --0.1 __ --2.8 ___ --1.3 _ +2.7 _ --0.2 ____ +1.9 _+3.2 _ +6.5

____ (29d) _____ +2.9 __ --0.3 __ --3.0 ___ --1.4 _ +2.4 _ --0.2 ____ +1.9 _+3.2 _ +6.7

 

____ (30d) _____ +2.9 __ --0.2 __-- 3.0 ___ --1.6 _+2.3 _--0.2  ____ +2.1 _+3.2 _ +6.8

 

note: July 1st 2315h EDT _ All stations now final, scores for June are final too. Will be working on the annual tables next.    

[Isotherm]

I would think the next few provisional updates will reflect less warming post 22/23rd for the NYC and BOS stations in particular. Latest ECMWF and GFS ensembles are strengthening the +PNA and consequently deepening the trough in the Northeast for the last week of June. Looks near normal to potentially below at times from 40N northward for June 23-Jul1.

[Roger Smith]

I was watching for that trend when I looked at the 06z GFS 25th to 30th and I think you're correct, at least slightly cooler projections than I saw yesterday, especially 29th-30th but at this time range those are quite uncertain. I estimated +2 for the days 25th to 28th and -3 for the last two for NYC and BOS. DEN and ORD are also bumped down slightly on today's projections. Anyway, I had a look at the current scoring potentials and there has to be some mistake because I am leading at this point (for the six "main contest" sites anyway, not so good for the west). But I am not very confident of these projections yet so I will hold off posting a provisional table of scoring for several days -- take all final estimates (except probably PHX) as plus or minus 2 deg. BOS and ORD sometimes catch a colder daytime temperature than the NWS 7-day forecasts indicate due to sea and lake breezes. Otherwise I find their numbers to be quite accurate so it's mostly a case of whether I have estimated correctly beyond day 7.