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May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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May Average Temperature and precipitation for KNYC...
decade....temp...high...low.....max/min temp ave/max/min/90+days/ ave precipitation...
1870's....60.3...63.3...58.8....................................................2.......2.50"
1880's....61.3...67.9...56.6......96......35......87.2......40.9.........6.......3.07"
1890's....60.8...67.0...57.8......96......32......85.7......41.6.........6.......3.67"
1900's....60.7...63.4...56.2......90......37......86.6......41.5.........2.......3.41"
1910's....61.5...65.3...54.3......95......36......86.8......41.7.........4.......3.39"
1920's....60.2...64.6...57.3......93......37......84.2......41.5.........2.......3.59"
1930's....63.0...64.9...59.9......96......40......90.5......43.5.......19.......3.23"
1940's....62.5...67.0...59.2......96......35......88.8......42.7.........8.......4.52" trace of snow in 1946
1950's....61.9...66.4...58.7......94......38......87.2......41.7.........6.......3.29"
1960's....62.2...66.4...55.2......99......36......88.3......41.6.......11.......3.02"
1970's....62.7...65.8...59.5......94......36......89.0......41.1.......10.......5.00" trace of snow in 1977
1980's....63.6...66.0...60.2......97......41......88.0......43.7.......10.......4.39"
1990's....62.7...68.7...59.4......96......40......89.4......44.0.......11.......4.16"
2000's....62.2...65.2...58.7......93......41......86.2......43.4.........8.......3.66"
2010's....64.3...65.3...62.8......92......41......89.2......45.4.........3.......5.17" 2010-14
1870-
2009......61.8...65.9...58.0.........................87.5......42.2.........8.......3.64"
1980-
2009..... 62.8...66.6...59.4.........................87.9......43.7.......10.......4.07"

warmest.........coolest...........wettest............driest......
68.7 in 1991...54.3 in 1917...10.24" in 1989...0.30" in 1903
67.9 in 1880...55.2 in 1967.....9.74" in 1984...0.34" in 1887
67.0 in 1944...55.2 in 1907.....9.15" in 1978...0.57" in 1964
67.0 in 1896...56.6 in 1882.....9.10" in 1990...0.62" in 1880
66.4 in 1965...57.3 in 1924.....8.51" in 1908...0.72" in 1905
66.4 in 1959...57.4 in 1901.....8.39" in 1972...0.89" in 1939
66.0 in 1986...57.7 in 1869.....8.00" in 2013...0.95" in 1877
65.8 in 1975...57.8 in 1891.....7.61" in 1940...1.05" in 1935
65.7 in 1993...58.0 in 1888.....7.58" in 1948...1.09" in 1899
65.6 in 1980...58.2 in 1893.....7.06" in 1968...1.18" in 1944

warmest temperatures...
99 5/19/1962
97 5/29/1969
97 5/30/1987
96 5/20/1996
96 5/22/1941
96 5/27/1880
96 5/29/1987
96 5/31/1895
95 5/25/1880
95 5/26/1880
95 5/27/1914
coldest temperatures...
32 5/06/1891
34 5/05/1891
35 5/01/1880
35 5/09/1947
36 5/11/1913
36 5/10/1966
36 5/10/1947
36 5/09/1977
36 5/03/1874
36 5/01/1876
coldest max days...
43 5/3/1873
43 5/5/1891
44 5/7/1967
44 5/5/1917
44 5/9/1977
45 5/1/1917
45 5/2/1962
45 5/5/1978
45 5/6/1891
46 5/25/1967+
warmest min. days...
76 5/31/1987
75 5/31/1895
74 5/09/2000
74 5/20/1996
74 5/27/1908
74 5/29/1969
74 5/30/1987
73 5/25/1880
73 5/28/1959
73 5/30/1986+



Warmest monthly minimum...

49 in 2014
49 in 2012
49 in 1982
48 in 1899
48 in 1910
47 in 1942
47 in 1944
47 in 1969
47 in 1991
46 in 2011
46 in 2000
46 in 1999 + =and other years...
coldest monthly maximum...
75 in 1924
79 in 2005
79 in 2003
79 in 1983
79 in 1928
79 in 1927
79 in 1915
80 in 1968
80 in 1882

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The CFS and Euro weeklies place the highest rainfall chances across the southern part of the country like

we saw in April associated with the developing El Nino and more active STJ. The other feature that stands

out in the weeklies is the -EPO reload later in May. If this is correct, it may mean that the warmth relative

to the means is greater for the first half of the month than the second. So we'll see if the greatest

warm departure days for May relative to the means will be front-loaded between May 1-15th.

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2015/04/27/82-degrees-monday-warmest-this-year/

That deep into the warm season insulation will make it hard for temps to be that much below normal even on a NW flow. Honesty I say bring it. We have done so well at the coast with the water temps we were and are facing. A south wind is brutal right now. Just look at the late afternoon obs yesterday when the wind went onshore.

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That deep into the warm season insulation will make it hard for temps to be that much below normal even on a NW flow. Honesty I say bring it. We have done so well at the coast with the water temps we were and are facing. A south wind is brutal right now. Just look at the late afternoon obs yesterday when the wind went onshore.

 

The drier conditions we have been experiencing help warm us with the lower dewpoints on the downslope days.

We have seen a number of very deep mixing days really drying things out here.

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It looks like an absolute furnace setting up for May. I think we'll see +4 or better departures as the first week alone will bring well above normal temperatures.

I want to see heat records shattered. If it's gonna get hot, then I want mega record heat boiling the ground.

Not me - not trusting forecasts that far out. Just been a couple nice weeks of spring.
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Not sure if this feature is purely warm core or not but the 12z GFS is once again showing a low pressure system off the southeast coast next week. The low originates from convection North of Cuba this weekend. The low then drifts North under the ridge in relatively weak stirring currents, essentially cut off with the Westerlies displaced well to the NW. Finally, after five days the system gets picked up and carried off to the Northeast.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_eus_32.png

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Not sure if this feature is purely warm core or not but the 12z GFS is once again showing a low pressure system off the southeast coast next week. The low originates from convection North of Cuba this weekend. The low then drifts North under the ridge in relatively weak stirring currents, essentially cut off with the Westerlies displaced well to the NW. Finally, after five days the system gets picked up and carried off to the Northeast.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_eus_32.png

 

But not before combining with a cold-core low pressure system and slamming onshore onto the Jersey shore?

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Looks like low to mid 80s for us on Tuesday but with a cost. Hopefully the storms hold off because its my birthday Tuesday lol

A dirty ridge has been pretty well advertised for days now. The jet will be over the Ohio Valley and then spilling over the top of the ridge, and then you have whatever ends up brewing down in the Caribbean trying to come North. 

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Thinking it could be a good weekend to put the vegetable garden in.

 

THE OTHER THING WORTH NOTING IN THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL TO
REACH THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN NYC SUN AND/OR MON. MON LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER CHANCE WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT AROUND 577DM.  THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGH PRES IN
CONTROL.
 

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12z GGEM is 991mb over OBX next Friday. Comes due North from near Miami, then gets pushed East from there. 12z GFS meanders the system off the southeast coast for a week.

Looks like we stay dry for the forseeable future...pollen counts are going to be awful.

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