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May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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Looks like we stay dry for the forseeable future...pollen counts are going to be awful.

Not sure what you're expecting. The northern jet is retreating early and the southeast ridge is pumping. The good news if you want some active weather is that we should be in a southwest flow so any convection that blows up over the TN/OH Valley's could try and advect into the region, but that's always a crap shoot. I'm not giving up on that tropical system either. Anytime you have a system near the Carolina coast it needs to be monitored.

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Not sure what you're expecting. The northern jet is retreating early and the southeast ridge is pumping. The good news if you want some active weather is that we should be in a southwest flow so any convection that blows up over the TN/OH Valley's could try and advect into the region, but that's always a crap shoot. I'm not giving up on that tropical system either. Anytime you have a system near the Carolina coast it needs to be monitored.

I agree there could be some pop stuff here and there, but I wouldn't expect a widespread rain event through the end of next week.  I'd give the tropical system a small chance of giving us some rain, if it even develops at all.  Models have had a lot of fantasy storms in the longer range

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I agree there could be some pop stuff here and there, but I wouldn't expect a widespread rain event through the end of next week.  I'd give the tropical system a small chance of giving us some rain, if it even develops at all.  Models have had a lot of fantasy storms in the longer range

It pains me to say that you're probably right, however all of the globals have had this system, and for several days in a row, so confidence is higher.

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The latest Euro weeklies continue mostly above normal temperatures for the first half 

of the month and closer to or still above  normal for the second half of May. So the CFS 

idea of the whole month averaging above normal looks good. On May 12th the weeklies will

extend from 32 to 46 days which should really be fun in the winter. ;)

 

 

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-long-range-forecast-model-update-13/46499125

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We could see the first 85 or higher readings of the season Monday

from Central NJ to Newark. This forecast sounding looks similar to 

our recent warm and dry  downslope days even though the flow is SW.

 

 

 

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