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Tropical Atlantic 2015 speculation/action


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 Recent GFS/Euro runs have been showing a threat for a GOM TC formation around late next week. Climo for past El Nino's (that ended up later peaking as strong) for June suggests that IF there is going to be any tropical activity that a mid June TC in the GOM is about as likely a scenario as any and much more likely than a June TC off of the SE coast as was falsely modeled for early June. Also, the MJO, if anything, would seemingly be supportive based on forecasts. El Nino's actually have had somewhat higher than average frequency of June GOM storms from what I recall finding.          

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Looks like the models have backed off the idea of having the East Pac invest cross the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and re-develop in the Gulf, as it's currently developing too far west.  Still, surface pressures look anomalously low over the southern GoM through at least the next 10 days, so worth keeping an eye on in case something sneaky tries to spin up. 

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Modeling is coming in better agreement. Intensity wise looks to be a weak TS at best but the precipitation potential is looking quite robust.

 

euro suggested over a foot of the wet stuff for areas just west of houston, and soil moisture is still way above normal.  flood threat is obviously going to be nasty if the center tracks just west of the upper texas coast as the model consensus seems to indicate.  as hgx mentions in the afternoon fd, the slower forward motion on the euro and canadian wouldn't help either.

 

NHC just upped to 50%/60% on the latest TWO as well.

 

not exactly the forecast this part of the country needs right now:

post-504-0-27670500-1434239740_thumb.png

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before yesterday, our yard was actually very dry

 

you are certainly right that it has dried out since may, but in houston we are still above normal for soil moisture and the rain this morning over the southeast metro did not help:

https://www.drought.gov/drought/content/products-current-drought-and-monitoring-drought-indicators/soil-moisture

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml#

 

luckily the break in the rain did allow many/most of the rivers and all of bayous to reach more normal levels (the trinity is still high).

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  • 5 weeks later...

qn0j9h.jpg

 

It does seem that parts of it could move north far enough and become slightly or substantially entangled in the trough. It is easier to see in a larger image, it is available as a flash loop but will change from this specific time.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html

That's an interesting one in the gulf of Mexico.

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The mdr is a mess. I expect allot of home grown sheard messes. On or two could blow up though if shear relaxes at the right time

 

This.  Shear is ridiculously high this year thanks to a cranking subtropical jet, combined with stronger than average trade winds at the low levels.  Subsidence is also much above average, evidenced by positive VP anomalies and much above average MSLP in the MDR.  All this combined with below-avg SSTs in the MDR means that few if any easterly waves will survive at all to even reach the W Caribbean / Gulf / US East Coast.  I wouldn't put too much hope in a late-season monsoon gyre type system either (other than perhaps a slopgyre), as shear only becomes worse by Oct in strengthening El Ninos. 

 

As has already been mention here, conditions are probably above average to nurture tropical transition events / frontal break-offs (PV tails) / and MCVs close to home, so we'll see. 

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Tropical Storm Claudette has been named in the Atlantic

 

i was wondering if this was a homebrew system and according to wikipedia at least, the system began to organize over land.

 

looking at this loop, which will be missing some of the beginning as time passes (but can be reset through editing the url to include a longer span of time) the initial convection began near OK and TX and, looking back a bit it is possibly even over NM and AZ that a slight circulation begins to form, but, the following loop allows the whole path of the cyclone to be seen at once. :)

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?wv_central+/144h

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any think active era since 2005 ended ? ?

It's too early to make any definitive conclusions. That said, it's possible, if not even likely, that the "active" era (warm phase) of the AMO may have ended following the 2010 season. Only time will tell for certain.

I personally suspect it has...but, that assertion is mitigated somewhat by the fact that, if it has, it would be the shortest transition of AMO phases since it has been tracked (previous record of 25 seasons from 1970-1994)- dating back prior to the dawn of the 20th century.

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