bluewave Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Wash, rinse, repeat. We just go back into a default +PNA and -EPO after brief relaxations and it's definitely +PDO and I think to some extent +ENSO driven. If the Atlantic projections are correct and we go into a long term -AMO, I think +NAO and +AO may become predominant over the next several years. Just a very dramatic pattern shift from what we were experiencing from roughly 2005-2012. The shift in the strongest blocking from Greenland to the NE PAC in early 2013 took about a year to flip the PDO positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Just a very dramatic pattern shift from what we were experiencing from roughly 2005-2012. The shift in the strongest blocking from Greenland to the NE PAC in early 2013 took about a year to flip the PDO positive. Screen shot 2015-04-06 at 6.58.53 AM.png What does this mean? Please explain in as much detail as you can. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 What does this mean? Please explain in as much detail as you can. Thanks. Colder temps here relative to the means since later in 2013 as the blocking in the EPO and PNA regions promoted a trough initially over the Great Lakes which shifted east to our region this year. NYC monthly departures since 8/13 8/13....-0.6 9/13/...-0.1 10/13...+3.3 11/13...-2.5 12/13...+1.3 1/14.....-4.0 2/14.....-3.7 3/14.....-4.8 4/14.....-0.7 5/14......+1.6 6/14.....+1.0 7/14.....-0.4 8/14.....-0.7 9/14.....+1.7 10/14...+2.7 11/14....-2.4 12/14....+3.0 1/15......-2.7 2/15.....-11.4 3/15.....-4.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 12Z euro has 60s tomorrow and down to near 50 at KNYC for Tuesday as the backdoor front moves through, then 40-45 Wed/Thurs, lower 50s Fri, and back into the mid/upper 40s Saturday. No 70s through the end of its run in mid April. I think NYC's first 70 will probably occur in the 12-16th period, next week, when we might have a window for several days of drier/sunny weather. Then I believe the mean trough returns to the Northeast for the second half of April as the +PNA rebuilds. Tropical forcing could support this. Euro ensembles indicate the resurgence of W Canadian ridging by the 16th, which could retrograde the trough back into the Northeast US. Going to be a tough road this year for prolonged warmth in our area. April should finish cooler than normal. I'm not buying that at all. Models are notoriously too cold behind strong warm fronts. Out ahead of the cold front, expect the Euro and GFS to understimate strong WAA. I think there will be widespread 60's and 70's in the metro region, away from coastal areas (marine influence) on Friday. Coastal areas will struggle to get much above 50... The air mass behind this system is not really impressive at all. Going forward, on the models, I think we'll see temps moderate behind it. Mid 50's seems like a good bet for the area at this point, on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 67 and loverly....push push push Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Stuck in the 50s, coastal influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 First 70F since November here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 I'm not buying that at all. Models are notoriously too cold behind strong warm fronts. Out ahead of the cold front, expect the Euro and GFS to understimate strong WAA. I think there will be widespread 60's and 70's in the metro region, away from coastal areas (marine influence) on Friday. Coastal areas will struggle to get much above 50... The air mass behind this system is not really impressive at all. Going forward, on the models, I think we'll see temps moderate behind it. Mid 50's seems like a good bet for the area at this point, on Saturday. Agree. The new Euro is near 70 Friday and probably low 60s for next weekend. I think our nicest weather comes Sat/Sun post FROPA, as cloud cover will be an issue tomorrow through Sat morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 60 at the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 70! Game on dudes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 the modeled 850 mb temps on friday would support our first 80f if we can mix enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Upper 50s here, it's in the low 70s not too far away. NYC definitely ain't hitting 80F on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 the modeled 850 mb temps on friday would support our first 80f if we can mix enough The Euro had the warmest temps over interior NJ. NYC and east had a little too much S component this run. But enough SSW flow and NYC sees the first 70, otherwise they will have to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Only 53 degrees here on the north shore of Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 70's close by but just 60 here with an e wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 72 and delicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 73F high here; top 10 day. Probably the nicest day for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Really annoying little cold tuck with highs mostly in the mid 50s. There are places probably less than 10 miles away to my S&W approaching mid 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 NYC topped out at 62 today so this makes 159 consecutive days of not reaching 70.Two years ago we went 174 consecutive days. I'm doubting we top that but these long range future warmups have flopped many times this year so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Agree. The new Euro is near 70 Friday and probably low 60s for next weekend. I think our nicest weather comes Sat/Sun post FROPA, as cloud cover will be an issue tomorrow through Sat morning. The precip/clouds far out ahead of the cold front, is likely over-done in many areas. I think Friday could be a really nice day around here, excluding the coast...But yea I agree, the wknd looks like nice, early spring weather-- just not as warm as Friday, for the city-west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 The precip/clouds far out ahead of the cold front, is likely over-done in many areas. I think Friday could be a really nice day around here, excluding the coast...But yea I agree, the wknd looks like nice, early spring weather-- just not as warm as Friday, for the city-west. Saturday may be the warmest day here at the coast with a mild downslope flow that could exceed guidance temps especially if the front slows down in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted April 6, 2015 Share Posted April 6, 2015 Saturday may be the warmest day here at the coast with a mild downslope flow that could exceed guidance temps especially if the front slows down in later runs. I'd be pretty surprised if the front slows down on future runs...The closer we get to this event, the faster it has been arriving. I'm expecting the opposite. Spiking ++AO, is going to move this thing in and out pretty fast. I wouldn't be surprised if the fropa gets pushed all the way up to Friday a.m. at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Friday will be very close for NYC to get to 70+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Badgers lose. I will be in mourning for the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Badgers lose. I will be in mourning for the next week. Hate dook hate dook hate dook hate dook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 18z gfs was putrid for spring warmth with that high over eastern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Very strong back door front moving through tonight into Wednesday with temps probably staying in the 40's on Wednesday. The tight gradient between the high to the north and weak low to the south will probably result in easterly winds gusting 30-40 mph closer to the coast making it feel really raw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 Very strong back door front moving through tonight into Wednesday with temps probably staying in the 40's on Wednesday. The tight gradient between the high to the north and weak low to the south will probably result in easterly winds gusting 30-40 mph closer to the coast making it feel really raw. f33.gif Yuck. Thats gonna blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted April 7, 2015 Share Posted April 7, 2015 the modeled 850 mb temps on friday would support our first 80f if we can mix enough We haven't hit 70 in 160 days and we just bypass that and go for 80? That would be uncomfortable but I'm doubting it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted April 7, 2015 Author Share Posted April 7, 2015 It's going to be a really wet next several days, not wall to wall rain, but a constant threat of showers with periods of rain. Hopefully we can pick up a few inches of soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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