LithiaWx Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 This looks like a pretty decent event shaping up over the next couple of days guys. Everyone please be safe and keep an eye to the sky. I hope I'm not out of place starting a thread here guys - if so I apologize, Day 1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM THE OZARKS TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH RISK AREA...FROM SE KS/NE OK TO THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN SEVERAL LOBES SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL KS...CENTRAL/N TX...AND INTO THE NRN GULF STATES AND INTERIOR N FL... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE OZARKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...SYNOPSIS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD/ENEWD FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSLATE EWD/SEWD TO A CORRIDOR FROM LOWER MI TO NRN/CENTRAL IL AND MO BY THIS EVENING. THE WRN PORTION OF THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER...IN RESPONSE TO SE CO LEE CYCLOGENESIS RELATED TO EWD PROGRESSION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN NV. THE INITIAL LEE CYCLONE WILL THEN DEVELOP ESEWD OVER NRN OK TONIGHT ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ...CENTRAL/SRN MO TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY TODAY... A REMNANT SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD OVER THE OH VALLEY TODAY...FOLLOWED BY SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING FROM THE SW...IN ADVANCE OF WEAK ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING INTO WRN MO AND NW AR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND LOW-LEVEL WAA. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SEWD INTO SRN MO AND CENTRAL IL...REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW FROM LINGERING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. THE FRONT/OUTFLOW WILL HELP FOCUS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON FROM S CENTRAL MO INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION. MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR BROKEN BANDS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS A TORNADO OR TWO. ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE STALLED FRONT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER...WITH CONVECTION LIKELY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. STORM FORMATION WILL BE AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF THE PRIMARY MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND SURFACE LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD. A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND CLUSTERS/SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. ...KS TONIGHT... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND BUOYANCY WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS WRN KS/ERN CO TODAY. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE N EDGE OF A STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX AND DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY AS A CLUSTER...SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD ESEWD TONIGHT OVER KS IN THIS ZONE OF ASCENT...AND THE CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER GREATER BUOYANCY BY ABOUT 06Z ACROSS CENTRAL KS. DESPITE BEING ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE...STRONG MIDLEVEL FLOW AND THE STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS FAR E AS SE KS AND SW MO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NEAR AND E OF I-35 OK TO CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON... THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDITIONALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AOA 40 KT. HOWEVER...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE WEAK DRYLINE CIRCULATION...SINCE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OVER I-35 NOW...AND IT IS NOT CLEAR IF/WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 04/02/2015 Bigger Day it appears Day 2 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT THU APR 02 2015 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TN VALLEY AREA SWWD ACROSS NRN MS/NWRN AR/SERN AR/NERN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID OH VALLEY SWWD INTO E TX... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF S TX... ...SUMMARY... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS FRIDAY; SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO TEXAS. ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE A GULF OF AK UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS SSEWD ALONG THE BC COAST AND BEGINS AFFECTING THE PAC NW...A SECOND TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ADVANCING EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY AREA DAY 2/FRI./ AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND WSWWD INTO OK/TX IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE TN/MID AND LOWER MS/SABINE RIVER VALLEYS WITH TIME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM A DEEPENING LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTAL AREAS...WHILE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE ERN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY. ...MID OH/TN VALLEYS SWWD ACROSS THE LOWER MS/SABINE VALLEYS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INVOF THE COLD FRONT...FROM THE OZARKS EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. SOME LINGERING SEVERE RISK MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION -- PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE OZARKS AREA. MEANWHILE...AS THE FRONT ADVANCES SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SOME HEATING OF THE MOIST PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER WILL YIELD MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. THIS SHOULD FUEL EVENTUAL/VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...INITIALLY WITHIN A ZONE ROUGHLY FROM WRN KY SWWD TO NRN LA. INITIAL STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN WEAKLY VEERING/INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION. THOUGH TORNADO RISK SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. WITH TIME...UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MORE LINEAR EVENT WILL SUPPORT ONGOING DAMAGING WIND RISK INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WITH HEATING MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND THUS INSTABILITY LIKELY WEAKER...LOWER/LESS WIDESPREAD RISK FOR HAIL/WIND IS EXPECTED. MEANWHILE ACROSS SERN/S TX...STORMS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY -- WITH MID-LEVEL ASCENT REMAINING WELL TO THE N/NE OF THIS REGION AND THUS LIKELIHOOD FOR CAPPING TO REMAIN IN PLACE THUS HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. STILL...CAPE/SHEAR WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE RISK WITH ANY CELL WHICH COULD BECOME EVOLVE ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS.. 04/02/2015 Stay frosty my friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 This looks like a pretty decent event shaping up over the next couple of days guys. Everyone please be safe and keep an eye to the sky. I hope I'm not out of place starting a thread here guys - if so I apologize, Day 1 day1otlk_1300.gif enh_2000.gif Bigger Day it appears Day 2 day2otlk_0600.gif Stay frosty my friends Thanks for starting this thread. Finally some action but the forum really slows down this time of year. I haven't heard thunder yet this year. Was that a Van Halen reference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF MS INTO TN AND KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER MS...TN AND A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO EASTERN TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO A PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY. ...SYNOPSIS... A PROGRESSIVE...LOW-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST FRIDAY. UPPER TROUGH NOW MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION WILL REACH THE MID MS VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. BY 12Z FRIDAY A FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NERN STATES SWWD TO A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SRN MO THEN SWWD INTO SWRN TX. THE SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES SEWD THROUGH THE SERN STATES AND TX FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS INTO A PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY... RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /NEAR 70F DEWPOINTS/ CURRENTLY RESIDES FROM SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE WESTERN GULF COASTAL AREA. HOWEVER...TRAJECTORIES EMANATING FROM CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DRIER AIR BEING ADVECTED NWWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES...THUS KEEPING THE MOIST AXIS FAIRLY NARROW ESPECIALLY WITH NWD EXTENT INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WHERE LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED. MLCAPE SHOULD RANGE FROM AOB 1000 J/KG FROM TN INTO KY TO 1500-2000 J/KG WITH SWWD EXTENT INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX. OBSERVED ROAB DATA FROM 12Z THU INDICATE A LAYER OF WARM AIR OVER TX THAT WILL ADVECT EWD ABOVE THE MOIST AXIS THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...RESULTING IN A CAP OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. THUNDERSTORMS /A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE/ WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN VICINITY OF FRONT OVER THE OZARKS REGION WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN EXPECTED CAPPING ISSUES IN WARM SECTOR...MOST THUNDERSTORM INITIATION WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO FRONTAL ZONE. DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WHERE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. BOTH DISCRETE AND LINEAR MODES ARE EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS...THROUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO KY IF STORMS CAN MOVE/DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EWD DURING THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...SRN THROUGH ERN TX... THOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER IN THIS REGION...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS WILL BE POTENTIAL CAPPING ISSUES...WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 3 KM AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP FORCING WHICH MAY LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW STORMS WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP WITHIN THE SEWD ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE WHERE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 04/02/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 2, 2015 Share Posted April 2, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CDT THU APR 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...FAR NWRN GA...PARTS OF WRN/MIDDLE TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 021857Z - 022000Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MS/AL/GA INTO TN. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION OVER NERN MS AND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME. MODERATELY STRONG AND GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ARE YIELDING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 25-35 KT...MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST RADAR TRENDS REFLECT THIS...WITH A GENERALLY DISORGANIZED CHARACTER TO ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA...AND ONLY WEAKLY CONFLUENT WINDS AT THE SFC. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION /ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ HAS OCCURRED TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST CORES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THESE THREATS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 2, 2015 Author Share Posted April 2, 2015 I've got some active weather incoming - you can see my location as the light blue crosshairs. I expect to stay out of the severe but I'm looking forward to a good dousing and some thunderstorms. There is some very stable air just to my northeast but it appears the unstable air will hold over my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN KY TO NERN LA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE SWRN WV TO WRN LA... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE SRN NJ/DELMARVA TO S TX... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DAMAGING GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL...MORE CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THAT SWATH EASTWARD ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION AND SOUTHWESTWARD OVER SOUTH TEXAS. ...SYNOPSIS... NEARLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL PERSIST AWAY FROM TWO MAIN CYCLONES -- ONE PIVOTING EWD ACROSS HUDSON BAY REGION AND ANOTHER SHIFTING SLOWLY SSEWD OFFSHORE AK PANHANDLE AND BC COAST. PRIMARY SUBSYNOPTIC PERTURBATION AT LEAST INDIRECTLY AFFECTING CONVECTIVE FCST WILL INVOLVE POSITIVELY TILTED PHASING OF VORTICITY MAXIMA NOW LOCATED OVER MN/ERN SD AND OVER CO. COMBINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD REACH NRN LOWER MI...LM...NRN IL...AND MO/IA BORDER REGION BY 00Z. BY 12Z...TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND FROM VT ACROSS OH TO SRN INDIANA/NRN KY AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL BE PRECEDED BY CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/AMPLIFIED VORTICITY MAX AND TROUGH NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN MO. THIS PERTURBATION IS DIRECTLY TIED TO CURRENTLY WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF SERN MO AND NERN AR THAT ORIGINATED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN ERN CO...PRODUCING DAMAGING GUSTS AND HAIL ACROSS BREADTH OF KS LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLIER THIS MORNING. AT SFC...WAVY/QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK LOWS WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MO/AR BORDER ENEWD OVER SRN KY. OUTFLOWS WERE EVIDENT S OF FRONT IN EXTREME SERN MO AND NWRN TN. COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM OZARKS LOW SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL OK TO PERMIAN BASIN OF W TX. OZARKS LOW IS FCST TO EJECT ENEWD OVER OR JUST S OF OH VALLEY THROUGH 00Z...BY WHICH TIME IT SHOULD REACH NRN WV OR EXTREME SRN PA. PRECIP-REINFORCED BAROCLINICITY CURRENTLY IN AND S OF PROGGED LOW TRACK MAY MODULATE THAT TRACK SWD SOMEWHAT. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SWD/SEWD TO 00Z POSITION FROM CENTRAL KY TO NWRN MS...NWRN LA...AND S-CENTRAL TX. BY 12Z...FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER GULF OF MAINE...SWWD ACROSS CAROLINAS...SERN AL AND EXTREME N-CENTRAL GULF...TO NEAR BRO. ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLC REGION TO NRN LA... OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS WANING OVER MS VALLEY AND EASTERN OZARKS REGION AS SUPPORTIVE LLJ VEERS AND AS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH TEMPORARILY UNSUITABLE INSTABILITY. SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MIDDAY THROUGH AFTN...BOTH INVOF SFC COLD FRONT FROM MID SOUTH AND KY TO MS/LA AND AHEAD OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED PERTURBATION OVER PARTS OF KY/TN WELL E OF ITS PRESENT POSITION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE PRIMARILY DAMAGING-WIND AND LARGE-HAIL RISK...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. FRONT/OUTFLOWS SHOULD BLEND INTO SINGLE COMPOSITE BOUNDARY DURING NEXT FEW HOURS FROM ERN OZARKS EWD ACROSS KY. EXTENSIVE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION AND AREAS OF RAIN HAVE REINFORCED THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE. LITTLE IF ANY CLEARING OR SUBSTANTIAL DIABATIC HEATING EXPECTED TO ITS N PRIOR TO COLD FROPA...GIVEN PLUME OF PRECIP AND RELATED CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NWD AND NEWD FROM NERN AR/SERN MO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. AS SUCH...ALTHOUGH SOME NWD RETREAT OF BOUNDARY MAY OCCUR BEFORE PASSAGE OF FRONT...BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS EFFECTIVE NRN BOUND FOR GREATEST UNCONDITIONAL SVR POTENTIAL...AND NRN PORTIONS OF OUTLOOK AREAS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED SWD OVER OH VALLEY REGION AND EWD TO REFLECT THIS CONDITION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW TORNADOES MAINLY ALONG AND WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM S OF BOUNDARY. THIS RISK IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON SUSTAINING SUITABLY SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE LONG ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF BOTH FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE OF RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED WARM SECTOR...AND ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY INVOF AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. ADDITIONAL SFC-BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTN ALONG EWD EXTENSION OF PRECIP-REINFORCED BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY...ACROSS CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO MD/DELMARVA REGION. ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY TSTMS NEAR BOUNDARY THAT CAN USE RELATED LIFT...STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW ENHANCEMENT AND LOCALIZED VORTICITY SOURCE TO ACQUIRE AT LEAST TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTER. ...E/S TX... CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FARTHER SW ACROSS E/S TX WHERE EML-RELATED CAPPING EFFECTS WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED. STILL...ANY SUSTAINED ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. THOUGH PREFRONTAL SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO SWLY...SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL EXIST TO FOSTER AT LEAST MRGL SVR-TSTM THREAT OVER BROAD AREA. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD BE SHORTER-LIVED THAN FARTHER NE ALSO...DUE TO TEMPORAL CONSTRAINTS IMPARTED BY MLCINH ON EARLY END AND FRONTAL UNDERCUTTING LATER. ..EDWARDS/LEITMAN.. 04/03/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 It looks as though I am in the bullseye today for severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 It looks as though I am in the bullseye today for severe weather. Be careful and post lots of obs and pics please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 I will for sure. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS NEWD INTO ERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD AREA FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC CST... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A MORE MARGINAL AND CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL SURROUND THE ABOVE AREA...FROM SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. ...SYNOPTIC SETUP... FAST...LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND ERN STATES THROUGH SAT...ON SRN FRINGE OF BROAD LOW OVER SRN HUDSON BAY. POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CNTRL HIGH PLNS SHOULD MOVE E TO THE MID MS VLY BY THIS EVE...PHASING WITH DISTURBANCE NOW ADVANCING ESE FROM THE DAKOTAS. THE COMBINED IMPULSE SHOULD AMPLIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT CONTINUES E TO THE NRN APPALACHIANS EARLY SAT. AT LWR LVLS...ELONGATED SFC WAVE NOW CENTERED OVER SE MO SHOULD CONSOLIDATE ENEWD INTO SERN IND LATER TODAY AND INTO NRN WV BY EVE...BEFORE UNDERGOING APPRECIABLE DEEPENING OVER THE NYC AREA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND TNGT/EARLY SAT AS PHASING UPR DISTURBANCES APPROACH REGION. STNRY/WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM THE WAVE...AND COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD...WILL SERVE AS THE MAIN CORRIDORS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH LATE TNGT. ...LWR MS INTO OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS TODAY/TNGT... SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW MCV ASSOCIATED WITH OVERNIGHT SRN MO MCS NOW OVER WRN KY. THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF KY LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY SUPPLYING SUFFICIENT UVV TO MODULATE DIURNALLY-ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF KY AND THE TN VLY. AT THE VERY LEAST...COMBINATION OF SFC HEATING NEAR AND IN WAKE OF THE MCV...AND ALONG COLD FRONT TO ITS W AND N...SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY TO MID-AFTN FROM FAR ERN AR EWD INTO WRN/MIDDLE TN...SRN KY...NRN MS AND NRN AL. GIVEN 50 KT WSWLY 700 MB FLOW ATOP FAIRLY MOIST /PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES/...40 KT SWLY LLJ...AND WHAT SHOULD BE MODEST LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE...SETUP WILL FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. ONE OR TWO OF THE LATTER COULD BE STRONG...DESPITE RELATIVELY VEERED LOW-LVL FLOW. ARRIVAL OF STRONGER LOW-LVL LINEAR FORCING /ASSOCIATED WITH ACCELERATION OF COLD FRONT AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO THE NE/ SUGGESTS THAT THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO BROKEN BANDS...WITH EMBEDDED BOWS CONTINUING TO POSE A DMGG WIND/HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADO THREAT INTO THE NGT. ...MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTN INTO TNGT... A SOMEWHAT SEPARATE SVR THREAT MAY EVOLVE E OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS AFTN AS SFC HEATING AND DEEP WSW FLOW ALLOW FOR CONSIDERABLE SFC WARMING OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. DIFFUSE WSW-ENE STNRY FRONT OVER PA/NJ LIKELY WILL NOT SERVE AS A SUFFICIENTLY STRONG LOW-LVL FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN. BUT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR IN AREA OF STRONGER HEATING/UPLIFT FARTHER S ALONG CNTRL VA LEE TROUGH. WHILE REGION IS WELL-REMOVED FROM THE STRONGEST SYNOPTIC-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...MOISTURE AND WIND PROFILES SHOULD BE AMPLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN A SUSTAINED UPDRAFT. OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW STORMS WITH DMGG WIND...MARGINALLY SVR HAIL...AND ISOLD TORNADOES. LATER TNGT THROUGH EARLY SAT...A MORE CONDITIONAL SVR THREAT MAY ARISE CLOSER TO DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE NYC AREA AND PERHAPS FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND. LOW TO MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...LIMITING COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH THREAT. BUT GIVEN EXPECTED DEEPENING OF LOW...CONVERGENCE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW LATE-NGT...SFC-BASED STORMS. WITH 700 MB WSWLY WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS...A CONDITIONAL RISK WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO. ...ERN/SRN TX LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT... STORMS SHOULD BE MORE WDLY SCTD FARTHER SW ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO ERN/SRN TX...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE WEAKER/SHALLOWER AND EM CAP WILL BE STRONGER. NEVERTHELESS...ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND. ALTHOUGH PRE-FRONTAL SFC FLOW WILL VEER TO SWLY...SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL EXIST FOR AT LEAST A MRGL SVR THREAT. THE DURATION OF THREAT SHOULD BE SHORTER-LIVED WITH SWD EXTENT GIVEN STRONGER CIN...WEAKER SHEAR...AND FRONTAL UNDERCUTTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Tornado watch likely for W KY and W TN. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0200 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 AM CDT FRI APR 03 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN IL...WRN/CNTRL KY...WRN/MIDDLE TN...FAR SRN IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 031656Z - 031830Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TN. LARGE HAIL...STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BEFORE 18Z. DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE AND SFC OBS TRENDS SHOW MODEST DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MID MS AND LOWER OH VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A MCV. ONGOING TSTMS ARE GENERALLY OCCURRING ALONG AN EWD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND HAVE SLOWLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST HR. PAH VWP DATA APPEARS TO ADEQUATELY SAMPLE WINDS WITHIN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS...SHOWING MODERATE-STRONG LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY WINDS VEERING TO WLY IN THE MID-LEVELS. ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. CURRENT INDICATION IS THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL KY INTO MIDDLE TN...WITH BOTH CLUSTERS AND SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE FEATURING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT...DESPITE THE TENDENCY FOR WARM SECTOR WINDS TO VEER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE...WHICH WILL PROBABLY OCCUR BEFORE 18Z. ..ROGERS/CONIGLIO/CORFIDI.. 04/03/2015 ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 22 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN ARKANSAS FAR SOUTHEASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTHERN INDIANA WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE * EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... A FEW TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A COUPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JACKSON TENNESSEE TO 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WITH SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SE IL INTO NE AR. AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCV AND CONTINUED INFLOW OF SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR BENEATH FAST...LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE. SETUP COULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO STRONGER TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Grab the popcorn, this will be a busy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 70/50 tor probs... Nothing to sneeze at DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH WITH SFC HEATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM SE IL INTO NE AR. AIR MASS RECOVERY IN WAKE OF EARLIER MCV AND CONTINUED INFLOW OF SEASONABLY WARM/MOIST AIR BENEATH FAST...LOW-AMPLITUDE CYCLONIC FLOW EXPECTED TO FOSTER SCTD SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS GIVEN RELATIVELY MODEST LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE. SETUP COULD SUPPORT ONE OR TWO STRONGER TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Hopefully everyone in the area fares well. How are the conditions out in west/middle parts of the valley? It's been cloudy here today, which will probably limit instability this far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 It appears to me that extreme west TN has the best ingredients in place right now - CAPE is rising - shear in place - things should fire off sooner rather than later I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGTNC147-165-031930-/O.NEW.KOHX.SV.W.0011.150403T1856Z-150403T1930Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN156 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN ROBERTSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 230 PM CDT * AT 155 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CROSS PLAINS...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... PORTLAND AROUND 200 PM CDT. WESTMORELAND AROUND 215 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 That don't sound good BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSHELTER IN PLACE WARNINGKENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY LOUISVILLE KENTUCKYRELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY138 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015 THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THEKENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND METROSAFE IN LOUISVILLEKENTUCKY. KENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY AND LOUISVILLE METROSAFE ASKTHAT PEOPLE LIVING WITHIN A HALF MILE RADIUS OF THE GENERALELECTRIC FACTORY ON 4000 BUECHEL BANK ROAD IN LOUISVILLE SHELTERIN PLACE UNTIL THE ALL CLEAR IS GIVEN. SMOKE AND FUMES FROM ALARGE FIRE AT THE GENERAL ELECTRIC FACTORY POSE AN INHALATION HAZARD. TO SHELTER IN PLACE...CLOSE ALL DOORS AND WINDOWS AND TURN OFF ANYSYSTEM THAT PULLS IN OUTSIDE AIR. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES.THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THEKENTUCKY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0201 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0223 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...KY...TN...SRN IND...SRN OH CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 22... VALID 031923Z - 032100Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 22 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS WW 22 IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CNTRL KY AND NRN TN WHERE TORNADOES...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 22 BY 21Z. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SE IND AND WRN KY WITH SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS NEWD ACROSS WRN TN INTO SCNTRL KY WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS EWD ALONG THE TN-KY STATELINE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 750 J/KG WITH 55 TO 65 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY AS DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES INTO LATE AFTERNOON. REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS AT LOUISVILLE AND NASHVILLE SHOW CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE CORRIDOR MOST FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF NASHVILLE WHERE SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. A TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXTEND NEWD INTO CNTRL KY WHERE INSTABILITY IS WEAKER BUT STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS PRESENT. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH SUPERCELLS AND BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 SPC remains bullish on tornadoes. The outflow boundary OFB lifting through Nashville will be a focal point. One other scenario instead of supercells is a line echo wave pattern LEWP riding down the OFB. Instead of one or two gorilla supercells, an intense line of thunderstorms brings straight line winds. Brief spin-up possible on a LEWP, esp near the notch and bow, but far from the classic supercell outcome. Regardless, wish I was in the Nashville area this afternoon and evening. Those up there enjoy and be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 SPC remains bullish on tornadoes. The outflow boundary OFB lifting through Nashville will be a focal point. One other scenario instead of supercells is a line echo wave pattern LEWP riding down the OFB. Instead of one or two gorilla supercells, an intense line of thunderstorms brings straight line winds. Brief spin-up possible on a LEWP, esp near the notch and bow, but far from the classic supercell outcome. Regardless, wish I was in the Nashville area this afternoon and evening. Those up there enjoy and be safe! Like you were saying DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO EASTERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ...20Z UPDATE... FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO EXISTING OUTLOOK ASIDE FROM SOME COLD FRONT-RELATED CLEARING FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES. THE MOST FOCUSED/CONFIDENT CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 3, 2015 Author Share Posted April 3, 2015 Like you were saying DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0253 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY TO EASTERN KY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENH AREA FROM THE LWR MS VLY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN AND ERN TX NEWD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. ...20Z UPDATE... FEW CHANGES NEEDED TO EXISTING OUTLOOK ASIDE FROM SOME COLD FRONT-RELATED CLEARING FROM PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY. SEE PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS/WATCHES. THE MOST FOCUSED/CONFIDENT CORRIDOR OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF TN/KY...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. Yeah Jeff kills it when he posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UKStormFan Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 What time is this likely to really start kicking up? Had work this morning so I missed the overnight stuff in Joplin and surroundings. Radar doesn't look as lively today and I don't see so many chasers streaming on the TVN site. Are things not looking as threatening as previously mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 23 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 410 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2015 TORNADO WATCH 23 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 AM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS KYC001-005-011-013-017-021-025-045-049-051-053-057-063-065-067- 069-071-073-079-087-095-097-109-113-115-119-121-125-129-131-133- 137-147-151-153-155-159-165-167-169-171-173-175-181-189-193-195- 197-199-203-205-207-209-217-229-231-235-237-239-040400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0023.150403T2010Z-150404T0400Z/ KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ANDERSON BATH BELL BOURBON BOYLE BREATHITT CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FLOYD FRANKLIN GARRARD GREEN HARLAN HARRISON JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER LINCOLN MADISON MAGOFFIN MARION MARTIN MCCREARY MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN NICHOLAS OWSLEY PERRY PIKE POWELL PULASKI ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL SCOTT TAYLOR WASHINGTON WAYNE WHITLEY WOLFE WOODFORD TNC001-003-007-009-013-015-025-027-031-035-041-049-057-061-063- 067-073-087-089-093-105-107-117-121-123-129-133-137-141-143-145- 151-153-155-159-173-175-177-185-040400- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0023.150403T2010Z-150404T0400Z/ TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE BLOUNT CAMPBELL CANNON CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS GRAINGER GRUNDY HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MARSHALL MCMINN MEIGS MONROE MORGAN OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM RHEA ROANE SCOTT SEQUATCHIE SEVIER SMITH UNION VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Surprised the cell SW of Paris isnt warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 60/50 probs on the E TN/E KY tornado watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Surprised the cell SW of Paris isnt warnedIt's broad, but that may be the first candidate of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olhausen Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 Hopefully everyone in the area fares well. How are the conditions out in west/middle parts of the valley? It's been cloudy here today, which will probably limit instability this far east.we have had a lot of rain from a few storms up here in extreem northern Tennessee so I am not sure if that will effect us one way or another.But so far nothing special other then some thunder and lighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 TORNADO WARNINGTNC037-165-169-189-032230-/O.NEW.KOHX.TO.W.0001.150403T2200Z-150403T2230Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN500 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DAVIDSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHERN SUMNER COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN TROUSDALE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... NORTHERN WILSON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 530 PM CDT * AT 457 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR OLD HICKORY...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... MOUNT JULIET AROUND 505 PM CDT. BELINDA CITY AROUND 510 PM CDT. LEBANON AROUND 520 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted April 3, 2015 Share Posted April 3, 2015 anything being seen attm on the ground between Mount Juliet/Old Hickory and Lebanon with that tornado warning besides the sighted funnel cloud, besides the 68mph gusts to the northeast of the Old Hickory NWS office? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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