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Grade the winter of 2014-15


Juliancolton

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With the risk of a wintry relapse rapidly dwindling, I think it's fair to say that most of us have just about finalized our snowfall records and begun looking forward to new tracking interests—among them, tropical systems, thunderstorms, and severe heat. Before we finally turn the page, though, it seems only fair to dignify this most stimulating, rare, and at times divisive of winters with some speculation on how it'll be remembered.

 

There are plenty of things to consider in "grading" this past winter (from the perspective of a cold and snow enthusiast, in my case). The way I see it:

 

Positives

  • Widespread above-normal snowfall, often by a significant margin. Personally I'm sitting at about 155% of average.
  • A high quantity of minor to moderate events, yielding lots of tracking days
  • Several surprise events, albeit mostly of an inconsequential nature
  • Wide variety of snow-makers (intense nor'easters, overrunning events, clippers, inverted surface troughs, etc.)
  • Abnormal to extreme cold in February and March, with negative double-digit monthly departures at many stations
  • Many excellent radiational cooling nights just outside the biggest population centers (I had an incredible 19 subzero lows)
  • After New Year's, no major warmups or rainstorms
  • Unusually extensive river and sea ice setting the stage for wonderful photos
  • Very persistent snowpack; some locations retained continuous coverage from late-January through at least the middle of March
  • Duration: northern areas experienced an impressive early-season snowstorm just before Thanksgiving, while wintry weather is still occurring in the final days of March
  • Plenty of highly interesting regional events, even those that missed us (western NY LES, eastern New England 100" blitz, big storms in the Maritimes)

Negatives

  • Low seasonal snowfall relative to parts of New England, where monthly and all-time records were broken
  • General tendency for big events to underperform locally, including the busted blizzard in January
  • Poor model performance across the board
  • Extended cold+dry periods without significant snowfall
  • A warm and rainy December with very little snow
  • "High-potential" stretches that failed to produce, especially toward the end of the season
  • In terms of real-world impact, lots of frozen pipes, heaved driveways, and ravaged lawns/gardens

I'll go A-, the same as last year. For me, the extreme temperature anomalies and durable snowpack have easily compensated for the lack of a big 12"+ event. It wasn't exactly the dream season that our friends to the east enjoyed, but I'm glad to have experienced it.

 

How about in your backyard?

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A .

 

The length and strength of the cold . 

Multiple nights below 0 .

50 plus in CNJ

60 plus up on the NS of Long Island .

 

20 inches from Juno in Laurel Hollow 

18 inches over a 7 day period in Feb in Colts Neck . 

Got started late , but one of the best back end winter rallies I have experienced . 

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Over all, B+.  Why not an A+?  The first half was basically an F.    No cold air anywhere in December and constant rainstorms.   January was not much better, although we had cold, it warmed up and rained the first 18 days of the month.    Last week of Jan rocked despite the blizzard bust and it kicked off an epic stretch of snowstorms and cold that ran all the way through March.  Didn't end up needing the NAO or AO negative, but had they gone negative a few times, some of our storms would have been epic (Jan blizzard for starters)

BDR: 59.5 inches YTD which is over 200% of normal.  Amazing to get that despite a 1st half shutout.

Low point: 1/18 which featured an inch plus of rains after a bitter cold day the day before and it seemed that we were headed for an epic bust.

High point:  Mid Feb with epic ice on the waterways and a solid glacier like snowpack everywhere.

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I have to give it an A.  I can think of stuff that could have been better, but it is hard to imagine pulling all of that together around here.

 

I'd consider an A+, but I don't give out A plusses  :rambo:

 

 

Same, A winter, and A is the highest I go. 4.0 scale with A as 4.0.

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A-

 

Never thought I would see such a relentless snowpack in Central Park.

 

Really, you need to assess this with a rubric that breaks out the criteria. I'll skip the descriptors but rate these 0-4

  • Consistency of cold 4
  • Severity of cold 3
  • Frequency of snow 3
  • Size of events 2
  • Snowpack duration 4
  • Holiday-centric 1 (here's where I'd say, yes, December sucked. If you moved this whole winter forward six weeks, and had non-stop cold and snow from mid-December to February, then relaxed, you'd call it perfect).
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A+ for sure best winter of my weenie life! I wish it stayed winter the whole year around though but maybe in another world. Oh and I ended up with 62 inches up where I live border of Bronx/Yonkers. Amazing two winters in a row. Last year was great with a bit of more snow 67 inches, but this year 62 and was colder; so both years A+

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Agree with others and I'll give it an A...Dec sucked with a +3 temp departure and 0.4" of snow but Jan-Mar had departures of -3.3, -11.4 and -5 degrees...Feb was coldest here on record with a 0 reading on the 20th...a 2 degree reading on the 24th is the coldest for so late in the season. March had a 6 degree reading on the 6th, to tie for lowest ever in March and also coldest so late...double digit snowfall all three months with a 49.1" total so far...this month will end up 2nd coolest here(records go back to 1977).

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On the strictest grading curve possible I'd give this winter a B+ but all things considered I'll give it an A too.

Epic bookend winter, one of the best I've ever experienced starting latter January and extending throughout this month.

No major storm 10"+ but numerous smaller events with a couple of 7-8" storms and one of the snowiest and coldest Marches in a very long time.

The brutal cold in February would've been insane 50 years ago and for now seems unheard of.

So what if December was a bust, November, January-March were well below normal and often snowy.

It already looks like we might see similar conditions next winter with El Niño playing a stronger factor.

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A.

 

1. Widespread much above normal snowfall despite no blockbuster storms except across Long Island and southern New England.

2. Extraordinary February cold/Prolonged below to much below normal temperatures. Some water bodies in the NYC suburbs remain iced over even as March nears an end.

3. Bouts of extreme cold.

4. Snowiest March since 1956.

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A.  Yeah we had a slow start to winter, but still ended up with above average snow, combined with below normal temps which created a snowpack that seemed to last forever!  That was awesome!  I could have taken my kids sledding anyday I wanted from late January till early March!!  ha ha ha That's unheard of!  Typically we only have a few days to go sledding after a storm before it melts.  Doesn't happen too often in a typical winter around here where we have a snowpack like that!  Plus all the ice on the local waterways was incredible.   Yeah we missed out on a Kocin storm this year in Central Jersey, which would have been icing on the cake, but I can't complain at all. This was a great winter overall. :snowman:

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