SR Airglow Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Models ramping up on possible accumulations tomorrow, especially in localized bands that could bring an advisory level snowfall to some if everything works out just right. First thoughts are widespread C-2", locally 3-4" in a few lucky spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I think we will see some 5-6 inch amounts under the heaviest bands. Stuff that will accumulate on roads too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 General C-2" is my call...especially grassy surfaces and pre existing snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Models ramping up on possible accumulations tomorrow, especially in localized bands that could bring an advisory level snowfall to some if everything works out just right. First thoughts are widespread C-2", locally 3-4" in a few lucky spots. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Still does not look like more than a generalized 1-2" with lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Watch us turn around and get norlun'ed for 15 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Norluns are very Sneaky Critters afterall.??? But that would be to good to be true lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Watch us turn around and get norlun'ed for 15 - That would kind of make up for your bad juju in my area with Juno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 That would kind of make up for your bad juju in my area with Juno. Umm... "my" bad juju? heh, stands to reason: what I want does control the weather, so sure - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Norluns are very Sneaky Critters afterall.??? But that would be to good to be true lol. well, sorta - There not "little critters" in the spirit of Lance's paper and concepts... But they can sometimes bring unexpected bonanzas for the winter-time criminally insane... I think the biggest positive(negative) bust I ever heard of was the Portland Maine event... Forecast for 1-3" ended up 18 to 20 ... Will or Scott would know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 well, sorta - There not "little critters" in the spirit of Lance's paper and concepts... But they can sometimes bring unexpected bonanzas for the winter-time criminally insane... I think the biggest positive(negative) bust I ever heard of was the Portland Maine event... Forecast for 1-3" ended up 18 to 20 ... Will or Scott would know. 1992 I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 1992 I think? yeah, not sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 1992 I think? 3/21 iirc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Heh, actually a relatively painless search.. http://www.weatheranswer.com/public/NORLUN2.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 There are some interesting features about this event...first and foremost is the excellent soundings. They are both unstable and very favorable for snow growth. The soundings actually get more unstable as the event goes on. TTs approach (or even exceed on some guidance) 50. So if someone gets under some heavier echoes, it is going to be 1-2" per hour stuff most likely. The key though is if anyone can actually get under echoes like that for more than minutes at a time. As already has been mentioned, the best of the event is the daytime, which obviously is a factor this time of the year. 1 mile vis SN- isn't going to stick to much on 3/28...probably cartops and shrubs and existing remaining snowpack. However, if you are in heavier echoes, that will not matter. As much I wouldn't surprised if much of the area gets <1" of snow with pockets receiving 4" or something. The wildcard is how long this stuff lingers. The 1 mile SN- can accumulate once the sun goes down...esp with these very cold soundings. We are talking about temps in the low to mid 20s by Saturday evening...esp over the interior. So if we get another 6 hours of light snow after dark, then someone could pick up 1-2" from that....but it may be mostly flurries by that point, it is unclear in these setups when we actually shut it down. The soundings are still pretty saturated but lift is diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 There are some interesting features about this event...first and foremost is the excellent soundings. They are both unstable and very favorable for snow growth. The soundings actually get more unstable as the event goes on. TTs approach (or even exceed on some guidance) 50. So if someone gets under some heavier echoes, it is going to be 1-2" per hour stuff most likely. The key though is if anyone can actually get under echoes like that for more than minutes at a time. As already has been mentioned, the best of the event is the daytime, which obviously is a factor this time of the year. 1 mile vis SN- isn't going to stick to much on 3/28...probably cartops and shrubs and existing remaining snowpack. However, if you are in heavier echoes, that will not matter. As much I wouldn't surprised if much of the area gets <1" of snow with pockets receiving 4" or something. The wildcard is how long this stuff lingers. The 1 mile SN- can accumulate once the sun goes down...esp with these very cold soundings. We are talking about temps in the low to mid 20s by Saturday evening...esp over the interior. So if we get another 6 hours of light snow after dark, then someone could pick up 1-2" from that....but it may be mostly flurries by that point, it is unclear in these setups when we actually shut it down. The soundings are still pretty saturated but lift is diminishing. Are you including what falls tonight and tomorrow morning with lobe 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Well that's the thing..all the models have similar looks in terms if dynamics, but we don't know exactly where they'll set up. Could be ern areas, CT or both which happens to an extent. Seems like both areas will have a burst of good snow at some point, but where exactly does it come together and how long is the question. My gut says ern CT may get the snow from an inv trough deal tomorrow morning and then some redevelopment over ern areas with embedded heavier bands in the aftn..but tough time to accumulate higher ratio snow unless it's coming down 1/2SM or less. Too bad this wasn't 12 hrs later. Hopefully it lasts into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Are you including what falls tonight and tomorrow morning with lobe 1? Yes. I'm not very impressed with that part. Temps are still marginal at that point and the snow looks less likely to be intense. Tomorrow morning is really the beginning of the good stuff...but anything overnight looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Well that's the thing..all the models have similar looks in terms if dynamics, but we don't know exactly where they'll set up. Could be ern areas, CT or both which happens to an extent. Seems like both areas will have a burst of good snow at some point, but where exactly does it come together and how long is the question. My gut says ern CT may get the snow from an inv trough deal tomorrow morning and then some redevelopment over ern areas with embedded heavier bands in the aftn..but tough time to accumulate higher ratio snow unless it's coming down 1/2SM or less. Too bad this wasn't 12 hrs later. Hopefully it lasts into the night.Seems like whomever gets under snow from both lobes could do the best depending on where they set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 im banking on ct valley convergence to get buried tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 It will be interesting to see what the 18z GFS shows, and then the next run of the RGEM. Might shed more light on where or how expansive this area of Precip/snow is/becomes?? Operative word being "MIGHT" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 The stuff tomorrow aftn is sweet on the RGEM. You can see it tries to elongate and close off H7 over SNE...basically an area of decent deformation which leads to upward motion. But, I'm not quite sure if it will be something where it's a widespread 15-25 DBZ with higher echoes look, or is it something with 30+dbz amid pedestrian 10-15 DBZ type stuff. It may be something where it starts off as bands from the morning and very light stuff and then just blossoms. Perhaps. The GFS still tries to push this SW though into srn CT and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Any ideas on when this starts tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I think ne MA fares the worst of the region...like many events over the course of the past 6 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 I was just looking over the 5 pt checklist for Norlun... This event has solid four, and a little weaker on one of them. The solids are, -- BL RH exceeds 50% -- 500 mb DPVA is in the area, and there is also nearly co-located 700 mb omega -- 850 mb is weak flowed ..such that if banding/meso features should set up along convergence axis, they may not move very fast, such that a burster 1 or 2 hourly rated snow fall could stick around in a community longer than anticipated. -- Over all deep layer trough axis is moving very slowly/virtually stationary.. this also assists in locking in convergence zones and having them linger over a given location longer than normal translation speeds. What is weaker sauced is the T1 to T5 temperature differential... It's supposed to be 10 C ; we're in the 9 to 10C range. Although, whis TT's approaching 50, I suspect that the columns unstable lapse rate may slightly above the upper 800mb level, such that it wouldn't matter if that is indeed the case. Specific sounding analysis would certainly elucidate that structure. So, yes it's an IVT, but ... seeing as so many checklisters appear in line, it's probably a Norlun by def. Also, I was looking at the 21 March 1992 event and gee -- that set up is ..perhaps a 70% analog. I wonder if CIPs might show this... I'm just estimating by the synoptic appeal there. One thing to just caution: these Norlan type events are probably more common than Norlun's producing unexpected local scaled impacts... The latter requires - perhaps - a processing beneath even the grid scales of the more finer meshed tools. I don't know if the current state of the art in the technology et al is superior enough to atone for that, but ...we'll see. Also, if the mundane transpires, it doesn't mean they are necessarily - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Any ideas on when this starts tonight? We could see flakes around 9-11pm...but I don't think anything will really stick until later toward morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 We could see flakes around 9-11pm...but I don't think anything will really stick until later toward morning. Staying in the 30's today . Still 38.8 I saw forecasts of 50+ yesterday morning for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Staying in the 30's today . Still 37.8 I saw forecasts of 50+ yesterday morning for today Those seemed "optimistic" to me. Today always looked like a lot of clouds with the upper trough axis still well west of us and the sfc front SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Tippy the column cools quickly tomorrow aftn. Also, 950 temps really cool off into tomorrow morning with the secondary fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 27, 2015 Share Posted March 27, 2015 Classic rotting day today. I don't recall 50 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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