Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Severe Weather: March 23-25, 2015


brettjrob

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 171
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Signal for later today is a bit unclear. If a few (or any) storms can remain discrete/semi-discrete in central to northeast OK, they could take advantage of a fairly robust environment for late March. (Especially given seasonal trends)

The high res models show a mixed convective mode going linear fairly quickly. The 8z HRRR pops a fairly strong, albeit cluster cell near PNC. Another cell fires near OKC shortly thereafter.

Dews in the upper 50s are already being advected into SE OK and backed low-level winds.

My guess right now would be a few storms with severe hail and damaging winds. Not 100% sold on the tornado threat yet, but think a brief tor or two is about a 50/50 possibility.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

New outlook brings all of OKC metro into moderate risk area and backs 5% tornado area into all of central OK.

 

NWS Tulsa putting out interesting severe weather probability forecasts -- probability of a severe/tornado warning being issued.

 

OUN doing a 20z sounding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 p.m. local time. Only a 20% probability of two or more tornadoes.

Main concern is for very large hail, just as was initially expected a couple days ago.  Have to wait for better and deeper moisture for sig tors.  Anyway, it is a start to this lackluster season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Main concern is for very large hail, just as was initially expected a couple days ago.  Have to wait for better and deeper moisture for sig tors.  Anyway, it is a start to this lackluster season.

Has anyone else noticed the graphics put up by the Tulsa office with a 33% chance of a tornado moving to the west and north of Tulsa?  Similarly there's > 60% of a SVR storm as well.

 

I've never seen them try to nail down probabilities this specific with almost no convection ongoing. 

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tsa/graphicast/image_full1.gif

 

Pretty impressive prediction should this come anywhere close to panning out.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Has anyone else noticed the graphics put up by the Tulsa office with a 33% chance of a tornado moving to the west and north of Tulsa?  Similarly there's > 60% of a SVR storm as well.

 

I've never seen them try to nail down probabilities this specific with almost no convection ongoing. 

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tsa/graphicast/image_full1.gif

 

Pretty impressive prediction should this come anywhere close to panning out.

Rather bold on their attempt to highlight their concerns.  Storms intensifying sw of Tulsa now. We'll see what happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Has anyone else noticed the graphics put up by the Tulsa office with a 33% chance of a tornado moving to the west and north of Tulsa?  Similarly there's > 60% of a SVR storm as well.

 

I've never seen them try to nail down probabilities this specific with almost no convection ongoing. 

 

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/tsa/graphicast/image_full1.gif

 

Pretty impressive prediction should this come anywhere close to panning out.

 

See the discussion on the previous page (and the top of this page).

 

It's the probability of them issuing a severe/tornado warning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

See the discussion on the previous page (and the top of this page).

 

It's the probability of them issuing a severe/tornado warning.

Right, like I said they usually don't get that specific before convection blows up.  I like the more aggressive stance by htem this year just wondering what's driving the changes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the shut out is broken

 

CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-
521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TULSA...
EASTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CREEK
COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 519 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED
NEAR WESTPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

113

WWUS54 KTSA 252221

SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OKC037-113-117-143-252245-

/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0002.000000T0000Z-150325T2245Z/

CREEK OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-TULSA OK-

521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL TULSA...

EASTERN PAWNEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE AND EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL CREEK

COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

AT 519 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED

NEAR WESTPORT...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

EVERE WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK

523 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

 

ARC007-015-087-252300-

/O.CON.KTSA.TO.W.0003.000000T0000Z-150325T2300Z/

BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-MADISON AR-

523 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL MADISON...

WESTERN CARROLL AND EAST CENTRAL BENTON COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

 

AT 521 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HOBBS STATE

PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...