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Spring 2015: Pattern and Discussion thread


Eastatlwx

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I bet you're right about that. I'm not sure why they'd wait until then tho. This thing is getting scary.

Did a quick check of Duke's lake levels and things appear to be stable but could change when lakes start warming up and water use increases. Voluntary measures could be posted if the situation does not change in the next several weeks. 

 

nvvel0.jpg

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Using words like severe and scary are a little over dramatic don't ya think? It's not even June yet, jeez oh pete. Guess some things never change around here.  

looking at how much rain was received compared to normal, one can begin to entertain those verbs. my area only saw a sprinkle in a month and my well is showing signs of water loss. 

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 Today's walk was the 3rd in a row with very pleasant conditions (no sweating) north of ATL (mid 70's, dewpoints in the high 40's, and beautiful sunny skies). I can't ask for much better than that. The party is about to end unfortunately.

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This could help ease my water restrictions!

I hope this happens!

here is the 60 hour total precip. on the 6z GFS at day 5

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=120ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_120_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150524+06+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

Should knock back the emerging drought.

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Move all the >.5" amounts to the mountains and that will be right :)

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I would love for that to happen, but Robert is saying to ignore all the rain being printed out on the GFS east of the mountains.  This is one time that I hope he is wrong.

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I would love for that to happen, but Robert is saying to ignore all the rain being printed out on the GFS east of the mountains.  This is one time that I hope he is wrong.

The GFS has been very sub-par in that...the model as a whole has been hard to understand ever since the upgrade was done.

 

Anyway...looking at today's data, Euro is teasing in both runs today at splitting the ridge in the east and allow a light, cyclonic flow to develop by next weekend going into the first full week of June...

 

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I like Robert ! Hope he's right!

But it will only storm when Brick has a baseball game to attend!

 

Guess when we got rain the one time last week? The night my son had a baseball game. It only rained for an hour but they canceled the game, even though the sun came out afterwards and they could have played.

 

My daughter has a t-ball came tonight so there's a better than average chance it will rain here today.

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Guess when we got rain the one time last week? The night my son had a baseball game. It only rained for an hour but they canceled the game, even though the sun came out afterwards and they could have played.

 

My daughter has a t-ball came tonight so there's a better than average chance it will rain here today.

This seems to happen to you all the time. You might think about changing churches.

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If the GFS is on to something here...the parts of the Southeast that has been dry in recent weeks (FL/GA/Carolinas) are going to quickly reverse that...


First off, you can thank the potential EPAC tropical system that's about to form. If it can get strong enough, what will happen is that heights will begin to rise soon over the Southwest US, so that means somewhere downstream troughing will occur...

The GFS for the past several days has been hinting at an upper low in the Southeast or Mississippi River Valley area and I think that feature is starting to lock into the model now...is gets started by Day 5 and by mid next week, it could really turn into quite a moisture pump

Day 5...

post-1418-0-29368400-1432739006_thumb.pn



Day 7...

post-1418-0-04506100-1432739099_thumb.pn


Now...with a nice broad upper low in place, lets add some kind of developing feature on the eastern edge...and look at how the moisture gets sucked northwest in the extended range...

Day 5 PWAT's...

post-1418-0-13876400-1432739235_thumb.pn

 

 

Day 8 PWAT's...

post-1418-0-96661600-1432739293_thumb.pn
 

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From today's RAH long range...

FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A COMPLICATED PATTERN APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING WITH A CLOSED LOW MEANDERING OVER THE LOWER MISS VALLEY OR GULF COAST REGION...AND THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR NORTHEAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW RIGHT NOW...PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA SUGGESTS AT LEAST CLIMO-POPS EACH DAY...DESPITE LACK OF MAJOR FORCING MECHANISMS. 
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I'm not familiar with Glenn Burns (just started following him) , although I have seen his name mentioned in this forum frequently. Just came across this on his Facebook page....

 

 

Looks like we get a chance to dry out tomorrow and Sat before an extended period of wet weather moves in next week.

 

Gretchen Mitchell wow are we going to be another texas situation?
 
  • Glenn Burns Will be watching that intently. If models are correct, 1-2 inches of tropical rains every day. That could mean around a foot of rain for the week!
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