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Spring 2015: Pattern and Discussion thread

Eastatlwx

By Eastatlwx,
in Southeastern States

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted

I'd just like to see a good rainfall around here. It's been over a month now since we have really had much.

I got a torrential downpour and heavy t storm last night! Picked up .61 inches of rain! Looks like it did weaken as it headed your way! Tonight looks like another dud! I mentioned it earlier in the spring, but when fronts start coming through at night, with least heating and instability, they seem to repeat that timing all spring and summer! This is the 2nd in a week or so, with middle of the night passage! Just something to watch and see if it's a trend!?
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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

too - if you're going to preach the good word at least know the difference between to, too, & two.

 

Don't bring issues from PR into the weather discussion thread.  Do you really want to pick apart grammar?  Do you want to?  Not sure it would work out too well going down that road, good sir.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Don't bring issues from PR into the weather discussion thread.  Do you really want to pick apart grammar?  Do you want to?  Not sure it would work out too well going down that road, good sir.

 

Don't talk about what happens in PR and I won't.  I am responding in kind sir.  I'm happy to discuss anything the mods allow.

 

If you really mean what you are saying here, start with following your own advice before chastising others.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45896-march-banter/page-23

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

This is amazing. Do you have to pick fights with everyone????? Give it a rest. It's becoming incredibly tiresome.

 

Don't worry, I'm not going to post in this sub-forum anymore.  I think nearly everyone (including myself) would appreciate it.  There are plenty of reasons for my comments, but I'm not going to go into it here.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Don't talk about what happens in PR and I won't.  I am responding in kind sir.  I'm happy to discuss anything the mods allow.

 

If you really mean what you are saying here, start with following your own advice before chastising others.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45896-march-banter/page-23

 

This entire post doesn't make any sense.  Meet up in Banter if you want to discuss.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Yep much of Georgia has been wet this week, but little of that is making it to SC. It looks the same way tonight too. Models are backing off in SC for next week too.

Latest drought monitor shows the abnormally dry conditions increasing across GA. It hasn't rained >0.01 here in like 2 weeks. Not sure where its been wet at. Surprised the whole SE GA region isn't in the drought area yet.
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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

Cover your peaches boys, it's going to be cold tonight:

 

RAH.....

FROST...OR A LIGHT FREEZE IN RURAL AREAS...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY

MORNING.

 

:weight_lift:

 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC

233 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015

...FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT...

.COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

A LIGHT FREEZE OR FROST IS EXPECTED.

NCZ007>010-021>026-038>040-050245-

/O.NEW.KRAH.FZ.W.0002.150405T0600Z-150405T1200Z/

PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-ORANGE-

DURHAM-FRANKLIN-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROXBORO...OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...

HENDERSON...NORLINA...WARRENTON...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO...

HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL...CARRBORO...

DURHAM...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...LEXINGTON...THOMASVILLE...

ASHEBORO...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...SILER CITY...PITTSBORO

233 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2015

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A FREEZE

WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE EXPECTED.

URBAN AREAS WILL POSSIBLY REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT FREEZE WITH AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED AS

LOWS DIP TO BETWEEN 29 TO 32 DEGREES. HOWEVER... A HARD FREEZE

WITH LOWS OF 28 OR BELOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST.

A FREEZE WARNING MEANS THAT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE TO

EITHER DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION IN THE FREEZE WARNING

AREA. TAKE ACTION NOW TO COVER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

&&

$

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

This is really far out but it shows we can't totally throw out the chance of more frost for this month:

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_336_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=336&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150406+12+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
Posted

I think the median last freeze here is April 11th, so certainly not.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

6z GFS has a cold central to eastern US look around day 12. Cold doesn't push deep into the SE but never-the -less would likely be below normal for most. As most know it can get hot this time of year.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_276_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=276&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150409+06+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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a5ehren

a5ehren

Posted
Posted

Looks like some heavy rains for North/Central GA this week, don't know if it warrants its own thread, but here's the Hydrologic Outlook from FFC:

 

 

 

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
210 AM EDT MON APR 13 2015

...OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK WITH POSSIBLE
FLOODING...

.RAINFALL EXPECTED...
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST
FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS WELL. THE GREATEST
FLOOD POTENTIAL AREA AT THIS TIME IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LA GRANGE TO COVINGTON TO ATHENS... WHICH INCLUDES THE
ATLANTA METRO AREA.

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL DEEPEN AND ANCHOR
ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK. A STRONG SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PUMP ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN PREVAILING OVER NORTH
AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...SOME OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE ENHANCED
BY THE COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA
TODAY... THEN ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SAGS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN COULD LINGER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA EACH DAY.

.ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED OVER NORTH
AND PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA DURING THE PAST WEEK WHICH IS 100 TO
150 PERCENT OF NORMAL VALUES. ABNORMALLY MOIST SOIL CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO EXIST WITH MOST AREAS STILL WET AND APPROACHING ABOVE
NORMAL STREAM FLOWS. THIS WILL ALLOW ANY HEAVY RAIN TO BE QUICKLY
ABSORBED... THEN RUN OFF INTO NEARBY STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS.

.IMPACTS...
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IF THE HEAVY RAIN
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA. ALSO...STORM DRAINS AND
DITCHES MAY BECOME QUICKLY CLOGGED WITH DEBRIS AND CAUSE
EXTENSIVE STREET FLOODING AND ROAD PONDING.

MINOR FLOODING OF SOME OF THE LARGER CREEKS OR RIVERS IS MORE
LIKELY WITH THE EXPECTED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTH
GEORGIA AND SHOULD BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THIS WEATHER SITUATION IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN WITH EACH MODEL
RUN...SO STAY ALERT FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD WATCHES AND FUTURE
WARNINGS. KNOW WHAT TO DO IF A WARNING IS ISSUED AND YOU LIVE
NEAR A CREEK OR RIVER.

FOR ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA. CLICK ON THE RIVERS AND LAKES TAB UNDER
CURRENT WEATHER TO ACCESS THE LATEST RIVER STAGE AND
PRECIPITATION INFORMATION.

$
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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

I'm seeing this more frequently in the RAH discussions in recent months.... something many of us have alluded to over the past few years. It's not in the afternoon package, but this was from this morning's discussion...

 

 

IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE GULF COAST LATER
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THIS MAY INTERRUPT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE CAROLINAS. THIS WOULD LEAD TO FEWER SHOWERS AND LOWER PRECIP
AMOUNTS.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Pretty big differences between the GFS and NAM for 60 hour precipitation totals (particularly for the RDU area):

 

NAM:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_060_precip_p60.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150414+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

GFS:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_060_precip_p60.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&param=precip_p60&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150414+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model

 

But I would take the half inch the GFS is showing just to get this pollen out of the air.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

6z GFS looks nice and cool in the extended. Not cold enough for frost/freezes(outside high elevations) but cool for this time of year.  

 

Here's day 11:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_264_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=264&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150415+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Model war continues this morning... Meteogram for RDU

 

6z NAM - 3.06"

6z GFS  - 0.68"

NWS ----- 0.32"

 

And that's just through Thursday evening 00z!

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

6z GFS has a cold look at day 12: 

 

850:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_288_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150416+06+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

Dew point:

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=04&model_dd=16&model_init_hh=06&fhour=288&parameter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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