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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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Well, that deescalated rapidly.  Went from looking like there were going to be widespread storms (some severe) to basically nothing now but stratiform rain in the upstate.  95% of rain events in mby have been stratiform this summer.  Everything started going to hell as soon as we got put under a watch and 80% pops.  Only damp pavement and a temp of 77° so we have most likely missed our chance once again.

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Well, that deescalated rapidly. Went from looking like there were going to be widespread storms (some severe) to basically nothing now but stratiform rain in the upstate. 95% of rain events in mby have been stratiform this summer. Everything started going to hell as soon as we got put under a watch and 80% pops. Only damp pavement and a temp of 77° so we have most likely missed our chance once again.

Stratoform rain is the best, so your lucky! I had a deluge for about 10 minutes, and it mostly ran off, it was so hard. Stratoform soaks in much better!

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Stratoform rain is the best, so your lucky! I had a deluge for about 10 minutes, and it mostly ran off, it was so hard. Stratoform soaks in much better!

 

I'm pretty sure there wasn't even enough to get past the leaves of plants.  Weather station isn't even registering any rainfall.  This is the most pathetic spring/summer for storms I can remember for mby.  I haven't even had a window rattling rumble of thunder since last year.

 

NAM not even close again.  I don't know why I even still bother looking at that model.

 

nam4km_apcpn_seus_8.png

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Overall the line at this time looks kinda garden variety, no big bowing segments or strong areas of rotation right now just a few areas that are worst than a average storm, dcape is high though so I am sure in the heavier rain areas there are some decently high gust maybe 40-60 mph in the worst of them......Durham looks to get a good one so anxious to hear from them guys...then down say Southern Pines towards Red Springs that section of the line has some decently high and expansive velocities so good wind there.

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Storm damage reports are starting to roll in. Check out that boundary moving in from the SE just ahead of the line

 

Yeah could be good or bad., if its to marine layery( made up a word sorry)  it will shut it off.....of course it could also cause it to go nuts and might spin up a few rotations as well.......I leave for home in 10 mins and it take 15 to get hme so I will miss it hitting

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Well between today and last Saturday, we managed to finally get some appreciable rain here in my area of Lexington, SC.  Taking anything we can get lately since most the storms have been falling apart this season.

 

The line is really meaning business towards the coast judging by radar earlier.  It filled in nicely per usual in the Eastern Midlands. Eastern NC could still have some good stuff going on now/soon.

 

Is it just me or are the models doing absolutely horrible lately on the simulated radar/precipitation amount end?

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Mesoscale Discussion 1257

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0622 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL

PLAIN...ADJACENT SE VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378...379...

VALID 302322Z - 010045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

378...379...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY

PROGRESS EAST OF THE WATCHES...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NORTH

CAROLINA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA DURING THE 01-03Z TIME

FRAME. IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT YET CERTAIN...THAT A NEW WW MAY BE

NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW

AHEAD OF THE ONGOING EASTWARD PROGRESSING SQUALL LINE IS CERTAINLY

NOT OPTIMAL FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW. BUT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS VIGOROUS...AND APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING

STRENGTH...AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD AROUND 35 KTS ON THE LEADING EDGE

OF ITS CONGLOMERATE COLD POOL. PEAK 3-SECOND WIND GUSTS IN SURFACE

OBSERVATIONS APPEAR TO BE RECENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...AFTER

AN INITIAL BURST AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS NEAR COLUMBIA

SC. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING VERY WARM AND POTENTIALLY

UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH

CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA AND

NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL

REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE INTO AT LEAST IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS

THROUGH 01-03Z.

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