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2015 Severe Weather Thread


Hvward

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Once the lightening calmed down I was able to grab a couple of hail stones, but they had been melting for at least 15-20 minutes. Still the size close to a golf ball. Checked my truck out and don't think I have any damage. But NWS indicates damage did occur to homes and vehicles in Franklin Co. where I'm located.

FEW IF ANY REPORTS OF WIND BUT NUMEROUS

REPORTS OF HAIL WITH DESTRUCTIVE HAIL OCCURRING OVER SECTIONS OF

FRANKLIN COUNTY RESULTING IN DAMAGE TO HOMES AND VEHICLES.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=RAH&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off

The biggest hail I've ever witnessed , was about golf ball size, and it put alot of dings in my truck (94 silverado) back when they still used real metal!

I just left them there, it adds character!

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The biggest hail I've ever witnessed , was about golf ball size, and it put alot of dings in my truck (94 silverado) back when they still used real metal!

I just left them there, it adds character!

Last night's hail storm is the worst I've personally witnessed.  Ended up with 4 subtle dents in 2013 Silverado 1500.  Wife's car lost a windshield.  House had one hole in vinyl siding.  Lot's of other people had way more damage than I did though.  Heard in Louisburg there were reports of baseball size hail.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0277
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NRN NC...SRN/ERN VA...SERN MD...SRN DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 101836Z - 101930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY 20Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

DISCUSSION...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/STRATUS DECK IS ADVANCING NWD
ACROSS VA/SERN MD WITH SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING NOTED
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IN VA/NC. SFC TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SUNNIER REGIONS AND SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES HAVE
STEEPENED TO 7-8 C/KM. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN IS WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A WEAK MCV ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER NEAR PATRICK COUNTY. CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH THIS FEATURE BUT RECENTLY SFC-BASED
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT...THERE
IS CONCERN A FEW TORNADOES COULD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD TOWARD TIDEWATER REGION OF SRN MD.

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SPC - updated...

 

...SOUTHEAST/GULF COAST STATES...
   THE MARGINAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE SWD ACROSS CENTRAL
   LA/MS AND WRN AL...GIVEN THE S/SEWD PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
   AND ATTENDANT BANDS OF TSTMS.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN
   MAINTAINED ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES.  LOCALLY
   STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...SINCE POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
   PER THE 18Z SLIDELL LA SOUNDING SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT WILL TEND TO
   BE QUITE LIMITED.  MEANWHILE...STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES FARTHER
   EAST OVER GA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT IN THIS REGION...IN
   ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

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Yeah if something doesn't kick off soon I think we gotta start thinking its gonna bust at least west of RDU.....and if it bust there then east of RDU might be in trouble as well.....kind figures the last few days we have had storms off around midnight both nights and now they actually talk the storms up and we get nada....

 

This loop might suggest a line forming from just NW of RDU up to VA where the storms are already firing, but the best shear is up there as well.....

 

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rah/flash-vis.html

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The delayed afternoon discussion from RAH still indicated things to pop later on...

 

AT THE SURFACE...A RETREATING WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM WEST-
CENTRAL PA SOUTHWARD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS... THEN EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL VA AND THE
DELMARVA. THIS BOUNDARY...AND FOCUS OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...WILL CONTINUE TO RETREAT NORTH AND AWAY FROM CENTRAL NC. TO
THE WEST...A COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM SW PA...WHERE IT HAD  
OCCLUDED WITH THE WARM FRONT...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TN AND
LOWER MS VALLEYS. THIS FEATURE WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC EARLY THIS
EVENING OVER THE NW PIEDMONT...TO THE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY MORNING
HOURS OVER THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. THE COLD FRONT WAS PRECEDED BY A
PRE-FRONTAL/LEE TROUGH THAT HAD SHARPENED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS OVER WESTERN NC...IN THE WAKE OF A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OVER WEST-CENTRAL VA AND WEST-CENTRAL
SC...RESPECTIVELY. THESE FEATURES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
 
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR...SHOWERS AND STORMS INITIATED ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT HAVE FLANKED OUR AREA TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH...OVER VA AND SC...BUT THIS CONVECTION HAS THUS FAR
STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY. GIVEN A GENERALLY MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE OF 500-1500 J/KG
DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPING CONVECTION -OVER CENTRAL NC- IT SEEMS
REASONABLE THAT BOTH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHOULD
INCREASE AS OUTFLOW AND SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE TRACK OF THE MCV APPROACHING THE NC
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT FROM SC...AND OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-COASTAL
PLAIN/ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE MCV TRACKING THROUGH VA.

BOTH REGIONAL VWP AND MORNING RAOB DATA INDICATE ABOUT 35-50 KTS OF
SW FLOW IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS (BETWEEN 850-500 MB) - SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED STORM MODES. GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW...PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...AND FRONT -ALL LINEAR
FORCING MECHANISMS- WILL SUPPORT A PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE WITH A DOMINANT THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS...PARTICULARLY IN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...ANY MORE
DISCRETE STORMS THAT DEVELOP INITIALLY COULD EXHIBIT SUPERCELL
CHARACTERISTICS...SIMILAR TO THE CELL THAT SPLIT NORTH OF CAE A
COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...BUT WHICH HAS SINCE DIMINISHED. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ALSO AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT OF
FLOODING MAINLY WHERE RAIN PREVIOUSLY OCCURRED DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...SINCE FORECAST STORM MOTIONS (240 40 KTS) SUGGEST
LIMITED TRAINING POTENTIAL TODAY.

THE TRAILING SHEAR AXIS ALOFT AND PROBABLE MCV NOW OVER AL WILL MOVE
EAST AND CAUSE A SECONDARY AREA OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OR RE-DEVELOP
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH AN  
ASSOCIATED 5-10 K FT OVC LAYER AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS LINGERING OVER
THE COASTAL PLAIN UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK. SOME BRIEF AREAS OF FOG
COULD DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS...DURING A SHORT
TIME WINDOW BETWEEN WHEN THE RAIN ENDS AND THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED DRIER AIR ARRIVES THIS EVENING. CAA-DRIVEN LOWS MOSTLY IN
THE 50S.
 

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Looks like the Eastern half of NC has the best chance the rest of the night...

 

 

720 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT AREA APPEARS TO BE FROM ROXBORO TO
ROANOKE RAPIDS TO ROCKY MOUNT... AND EXTENDING FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO
WILSON THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

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Yeah if something doesn't kick off soon I think we gotta start thinking its gonna bust at least west of RDU.....and if it bust there then east of RDU might be in trouble as well.....kind figures the last few days we have had storms off around midnight both nights and now they actually talk the storms up and we get nada....

This loop might suggest a line forming from just NW of RDU up to VA where the storms are already firing, but the best shear is up there as well.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/rah/flash-vis.html

I was coming here to say the same thing. We had pretty strong storms around here last night and the night before, and the talk all day was for storms today that could be even stronger. And of course there is nothing yet, and would be funny if we end up with nothing. I think this same scenario happened here a lot last year with forecasting storms, too.

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I am pretty sure this happened all the time last year, too, because I recall saying something like forecasting the storms around here used to be the easy part, but it was getting as unpredictable as forecasting the snow here.

Yes absolutely. I recall you saying that many times last year! Hopefully, forecasts will be better this year.

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Yes absolutely. I recall you saying that many times last year! Hopefully, forecasts will be better this year.

I am glad someone else remembers and I am not losing my mind. Yesterday was a big bust. No storms at all here. But then we had strong storms both days before. Guess we just never know for sure when it comes to storms now, too.

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I am glad someone else remembers and I am not losing my mind. Yesterday was a big bust. No storms at all here. But then we had strong storms both days before. Guess we just never know for sure when it comes to storms now, too.

Hate to explode burst your bubble, but that was sarcasm. How could you not tell that was sarcasm?
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Hate to explode burst your bubble, but that was sarcasm. How could you not tell that was sarcasm?

I really do remember him talking about it a lot last year. Sincerely. A LOT. But he wasn't wrong. And I really do hope forecasts are better this year...for a number of reasons. By the way, when are you coming up here to lose in some basketball?

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I really do remember him talking about it a lot last year. Sincerely. A LOT. But he wasn't wrong. And I really do hope forecasts are better this year...for a number of reasons. By the way, when are you coming up here to lose in some basketball?

Lol the tone of that post sounded so sarcastic. Lol y'all were scared last time we were coming. You had some excuse.
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Fishel just posted on facebook that they got it wrong. He said they were unimpressed with chances for strong storms Wednesday and Thursday, and were focusing more on Friday, and in reality exact opposite happened. Hope we are not going to have a repeat of last year. Not sure what is making it harder to forecast the storms here, but if it keeps happening folks are not going be caught off guard when the forecast doesn't call for severe weather and we have it, and are going to be unprepared and saying the forecasters are crying wolf when they do forecast severe weather.

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