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2015 Severe Weather Thread

Hvward

By Hvward,
in Southeastern States

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Hvward

Hvward

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Yeah this is a tornado on the ground doing damage in a heavily populated area.....not good....looked like a for sure TDS just SW of Palmetto and then it may have cycled a bit and now it looks to be strengthening again and could be a TOG at any time just SW of the airport.

Yeah I will be interested to see the reports that come out of the Palmetto area.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Yeah if it cycles a new rotation there in the next 10-15 mins it could put down pretty much right in downtown ATL....

Yeah looks like its trying to produce a bookend vortex action. Interesting there are no reports coming out from emergency response because that looked like certain on radar.

Edit: TWC reporting trees down and a tree on a house near Fairburn.

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kayman

kayman

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Yeah, I live in Southwest Atlanta and there was a tornado on the ground with the TVS in Palmetto.  It begin to skip around between Fairburn and Union City along Roosevelt Highway (US 29) there was a brief touchdown reported in Union City prior to dissipating over Red Oak.  There was a broad area of rotation as it passed over my area in the Cascade area of Atlanta proper around 5:15PM.  

 

Yes, there is a couplet as it is appearing to wrapping up again over the Stone Mountain area of Dekalb County as it heads into Gwinnett.

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Hvward

Hvward

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yeah its gonna need a warning soon at the rate its tightening up is about right over the Scottdale area moving NE pretty quick......

soon as I type this the next frame updates and its looks a little weaker.....

As long as it keeps that cold pool it could quickly produce a spin-up. Definitely bares watching.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Yeah, I live in Southwest Atlanta and there was a tornado on the ground with the TVS in Palmetto.  It begin to skip around between Fairburn and Union City along Roosevelt Highway (US 29) there was a brief touchdown reported in Union City prior to dissipating over Red Oak.  There was a broad area of rotation as it passed over my area in the Cascade area of Atlanta proper around 5:15PM.  

 

Yes, there is a couplet as it is appearing to wrapping up again over the Stone Mountain area of Dekalb County as it heads into Gwinnett.

 

yeah that matches up well with the radarscope data strong couplet with TVS SW of Palmetto then maybe again just west of Fairburn/Union City area of hwy 29

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kayman

kayman

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Now, there has been reports of 2 possible tornado touchdowns with damage in Dekalb County near Scottdale/Decatur area and again in Stone Mountain per the Atlanta NWS office in Peachtree City.  This is associated with the same tight couplet we have been watching for the past hour that has gone over the heart of Atlanta and continued northeast of downtown into Gwinnett County.

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Hvward

Hvward

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Now, there has been reports of 2 possible tornado touchdowns with damage in Dekalb County near Scottdale/Decatur area and again in Stone Mountain per the Atlanta NWS office in Peachtree City. This is associated with the same tight couplet we have been watching for the past hour that has gone over the heart of Atlanta and continued northeast of downtown into Gwinnett County.

That matches up with where Downeast pointed out that the circulation had intensified. Good catch man, you sniffed out an unwarned one. I hope everyone in those areas hit are safe. Thanks for the info Kayman.

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kayman

kayman

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That matches up with where Downeast pointed out that the circulation had intensified. Good catch man, you sniffed out an unwarned one. I hope everyone in those areas hit are safe. Thanks for the info Kayman.

 

You guys are welcome!  I try to keep up with what's going on the ground in this weird North Georgia weather environment.

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  • 4 weeks later...
downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Obviously there are a lot of caveats to this threat but the chance is there for someone to get a good storm tomorrow, also wit ha triple point a few tornados could happen if everything came together just right.... 

 

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS THURSDAY.

   ...CAROLINAS...

   PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF STRONG MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD WITH
   WEAKER FORCING EXPECTED TO TRAIL S ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION.
   ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SHOULD MIGRATE TO A POSITION FROM WRN
   PA...SSWWD INTO NRN GA BY 17/18Z...THEN EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS BY
   EARLY EVENING.  STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
   AID NEWD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE VALUES
   SHOULD APPROACH 1.75 INCHES.  WHILE FORECAST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY
   ARE POOR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED
   FOR NEAR-SFC BASED CONVECTION WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
    FRONTAL CONVECTION...WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING...SHOULD BE ONGOING AT
   THE START OF THE PERIOD AND AN EWD PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
   EXPECTED TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE EVENING.  GIVEN THE FORECAST SHEAR
   ACROSS THIS REGION...GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE MOST ROBUST
   CONVECTION.

RAH had this to say

 

THIS BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT
THAT COULD UNFOLD GIVEN INCREASING MID-LEVEL FLOW (55-65KT BULK
SHEAR) AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH LONG AND SLIGHTLY
(CYCLONICALLY) CURVED HODOGRAPHS FROM TO THE AFOREMENTIONED 50KT
LLJ. THE ONSET OF RAIN THURSDAY MORNING WILL LEAD TO A WEDGE-LIKE
AIRMASS AND INCREASED LOW-LEVEL STABILITY...AND SO THE ADVANCE OF
THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE SOMEWHAT HINDERED...AS IS ROUTINELY THE
CASE. HOWEVER...DESPITE WEAK LAPSE RATES...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
AS MUCH AS 300-600J/KG OF MUCAPE THAT IS INCREASINGLY NEAR SURFACE
BASED...OWING TO GOOD DIURNAL TIMING AND A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP.
FROM PAST EXPERIENCE THE SOUNDINGS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE
THAN MANY SIMILAR EVENTS WHERE WE GET LITTLE OR NO SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT THAT MAY JUST BE ANECDOTAL. SHERBS3 VALUES REACH 0.8-1
FROM THE TRIANGLE NORTHEASTWARD...WHICH WOULD ALSO BE COLLOCATED
WITH THE WEDGE FRONT THAT SHOULD AT LEAST REACH US 1. ADD TO IT THAT
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ALONG THE FRONT...AND THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW END TORNADO THREAT TO
ACCOMPANY AND GENERAL SEVERE WIND THREAT. THE MAIN LACKING
INGREDIENT MAY BE A FOCUS OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FORCING....BUT SPC
HAS INCLUDED EASTERN NC IN A MARGINAL RISK...FURTHER INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
THE KEY TO THE FAVORED AREAS MAY LIE IN HOW SOON PRECIP MOVES IN
TONIGHT AND THE EXTENT OF THE WEDGE AIRMASS.
 

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Solak

Solak

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Updated...

 ...CAROLINAS...   SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE   REGION...PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH   APPROACHES....ACTING TO INCREASE HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTEN THE   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHALLOW REMNANT CONTINENTAL AIRMASS   OVER MOST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED   TO QUICKLY ERODE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LLJ   INTENSIFIES...STRENGTHENING MOISTURE RETURN. MAIN UNCERTAINTY   REGARDING A SVR THREAT IS WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS   ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG KINEMATIC   FIELDS WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT   CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO   MAINTAIN MARGINAL PROBS OVER THE REGION. AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION   INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NC COAST.   ...SE AL/MOST OF GA/FL PANHANDLE...   LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE   PERIOD. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT   ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE RESULTING   ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TEMPERING THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.   HOWEVER...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION --   I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT -- WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED   STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO PERSIST WITH A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING   WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE VEERING   LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD   BE VERY ISOLATED. HIGHEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN AL   AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SURFACE   LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MORE SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS.
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downeastnc

downeastnc

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Updated...

 ...CAROLINAS...   SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE   REGION...PARTICULARLY AFTER 00Z AS THE SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH   APPROACHES....ACTING TO INCREASE HEIGHT FALLS AND TIGHTEN THE   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. SHALLOW REMNANT CONTINENTAL AIRMASS   OVER MOST OF THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED   TO QUICKLY ERODE AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND THE LLJ   INTENSIFIES...STRENGTHENING MOISTURE RETURN. MAIN UNCERTAINTY   REGARDING A SVR THREAT IS WHETHER OR NOT SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION IS   ABLE TO DEVELOP AND PERSIST WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. STRONG KINEMATIC   FIELDS WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH ANY PERSISTENT   CONVECTION AND THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH TO   MAINTAIN MARGINAL PROBS OVER THE REGION. AN UPGRADE MAY BE NEEDED IN   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION   INCREASES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NC COAST.   ...SE AL/MOST OF GA/FL PANHANDLE...   LINE OF TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY IN THE   PERIOD. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY TO BE RIGHT   ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE RESULTING   ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TEMPERING THE OVERALL SVR THREAT.   HOWEVER...KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION --   I.E. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 TO 50 KT -- WITH ANY SURFACE-BASED   STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO PERSIST WITH A RESULTING THREAT FOR DAMAGING   WIND GUSTS. A TORNADO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT THE VEERING   LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD   BE VERY ISOLATED. HIGHEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SRN AL   AND THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SURFACE   LOW REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MORE SLY/SELY SURFACE WINDS.

 

Hmmmm talking a slight risk, haven't seen that in while if they go with the upgrade.....will be interested to read the afternoon write up from RAH

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

A whole lot of "if's" in the AFD...

 

AS OF 240 PM WEDNESDAY...

THERE IS STILL A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... MAINLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND COASTAL
PLAIN.

PROBLEMS OF THE DAY WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE WARM
SECTOR IN THE EAST... AND HOW FAR NW IT CAN PENETRATE INLAND.

RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE ONGOING
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF CENTRAL NC THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. DEPENDING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A
WAVE ALONG THE COAST (IF IT DEVELOPS THEN THE WARM SECTOR MAY BE
DISRUPTED OR VERY LIMITED/CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREA) THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS... HYBRID COLD AIR DAMMING WITH STRONG SURFACE
BASED STABILITY WILL BECOME ENTRENCHED OVER THE NW PIEDMONT AND
POTENTIALLY DEEP INTO THE PIEDMONT AS WAVES OF RAIN AID EVAPORATIVE
COOLING AND DIABATIC PROCESSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD START AROUND 50 IN THE NW ZONES... AND MAY HOLD IN THE LOWER
TO MID 50S ALL DAY.

THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF THIS CAD IS PROBLEMATIC AS THE LATEST 12Z/GFS
INDICATES THAT EVEN RALEIGH AND SOUTHERN PINES WILL BE ON THE COOL
STABLE SIDE OF FRONT EVEN LATE DAY... WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR LIMITED
TO THE SE COASTAL PLAIN FROM FAY TO GSB AND LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A STRONG GRADIENT IN TEMPERATURES BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... WITH 50-55 NW TO NEAR 75 AROUND
LUMBERTON. JUST HOW FAR NORTH AND WEST THE GENUINE WARM SECTOR GETS
REMAINS IN FLUX WITH EACH RUN OF THE MODELS.

FOR NOW IT MAY BE BEST TO STICK WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WORDING IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WHICH TO ADVERTISES THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. DAMAGING
WIND (AND A LOW END TORNADO RISK) THE MAJOR CONCERNS. KEEP IN MIND
THE EXTENT OR LACK THEREOF THE WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
DETERMINED UNTIL DURING THE DAY THURSDAY (BASED ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND
EAST THE RAIN COOLED AIR/STABILITY IN THE WEST ADVANCE... THE
PLACEMENT OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE WAVE LATER IN THE DAY AND
THURSDAY EVENING (CENTRAL OR COASTAL NC)... AND TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. EVEN THE WEAK COASTAL WAVE LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET AND WARM SECTOR TIMING DURING THE EVENT THURSDAY.
REGARDLESS... THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER TROUGH IS STRONG AND THE SW
FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY WITH THE
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ENSUE. STRONG
KINEMATIC FIELDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION... LEAVING THE KEY TO
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

RAIN WILL PREDOMINATE NW WITH SHOWERS SE... AND ISO THUNDERSTORMS SE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEADY RAIN WILL END THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS... DRIZZLE... AND FOG (POSSIBLY A DENSE FOG
EVENT AGAIN THUR NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY).

THIS IS A FLUID SITUATION AND ONE THAT BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. SURFACE
LOW TRACKS ALONG THERMAL MOISTURE BOUNDARIES (TMB) ON THE SOUTH AND
EAST SIDE OF PIEDMONT COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) RESUMES OFTEN BRING
SEVERE STORMS AND TORNADOES IN THE FALL AND SPRING SEVERE WEATHER
SEASONS. JUST BECAUSE IT IS DECEMBER... WE CAN NOT TAKE OUR GUARD
DOWN ESPECIALLY IN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED SE ZONES THIS TIME
OUT.

&&

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