Solak Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Lots of wind on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Lots of wind on Tuesday At the house I had a lot of leaves and small branches come down yesterday. A few miles away there was heavy rain but not that much wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Lots of wind on Tuesday We must have had a more wind than I thought lastnight. The nearest trees to me are a couple hundred yards away. It's hard to judge the wind at night in those trees. When I went out this morning there were several large branches down just down the road from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Shouldnt there be a radar site at the 8th busiest airport in the US? Baffles the mind. I mean, there's TDWR and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 couple of warned storms out there already. The one down by MHX has had a funnel cloud reported with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Weather channel was showing funnel cloud, possible tornado, towards Newport. Golf ball sized hail was also being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Nasty line about to come thru jville... hopefully it's not a let down haha we are under a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 Getting ready to have a storm here at Myrtle Beach. Clouds are looking really ominous and hearing thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 24, 2015 Share Posted July 24, 2015 US National Weather Service Wilmington NC 15 mins · 90 mph microburst confirmed in Wilmington: July 23, 2015 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 647 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 ...MICROBURST /STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE/ CONFIRMED NEAR WILMINGTON IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA... LOCATION...WILMINGTON IN NEW HANOVER COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 30, 2015 Share Posted July 30, 2015 A tease for our Southern friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 JB is hinting at a tornado outbreak in the lower Mississippi valley in 3-4 days. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 23, 2015 Share Posted October 23, 2015 JB is hinting at a tornado outbreak in the lower Mississippi valley in 3-4 days. Interesting. would be the rems of Patricia most likely..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Under a tornado watch here. Trees down apparently with one of the tornado warnings in Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 Updated HWO from RAH... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERETHUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING OVER MOST OF CENTRALNC. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINEWINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. AN ISOLATED TORNADOCANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENTOF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 From the afternoon AFD THE STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE35-45KT RANGE. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE VEERING LOWLEVEL FLOW (RESIDUAL EFFECT OF THE CAD AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT)SUGGEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES NEAR THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FORROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER... THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOTBE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OF SUFFICIENT DEPTH AS LOWLEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELTREND HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUNSUCH THAT THE 12Z GFS MUCAPE VALUES REACH 1200-1400 J/KG OVERPORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANDMLCAPE 400-600J/KG. IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES AND IF PEEKS OF SUNOCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON NEAR OR ADJACENT TO OURREGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERESTORMS WILL INCREASE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 From the afternoon AFD THE STRENGTHENING FLOW WILL INCREASE THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE35-45KT RANGE. THIS AMOUNT OF SHEAR COUPLED WITH THE VEERING LOWLEVEL FLOW (RESIDUAL EFFECT OF THE CAD AIR MASS IN THE PIEDMONT)SUGGEST LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES NEAR THE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FORROTATING CELLS. HOWEVER... THE LOWER HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE MAY NOTBE BUOYANT ENOUGH TO GENERATE STORMS OF SUFFICIENT DEPTH AS LOWLEVEL INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE LACKING. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELTREND HAS BEEN TO INCREASE THE INSTABILITY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE RUNSUCH THAT THE 12Z GFS MUCAPE VALUES REACH 1200-1400 J/KG OVERPORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ANDMLCAPE 400-600J/KG. IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES AND IF PEEKS OF SUNOCCUR LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON NEAR OR ADJACENT TO OURREGION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF OUR AREA...THEN THE THREAT FOR SEVERESTORMS WILL INCREASE. That's more than enough cape in high shear setups to make things scary and even low top supercells will be producing the upside is they are generally short lived and weak tornados....but if the updrafts can grow tall enough then something more serious could happen and thats why late Oct and especially Nov are when we have our secondary peaks in tornados for NC....plenty of deadly strong tornadoes in the record in NC this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 MHX says this A POTENT UPRTROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SE CONUS FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THISSYSTEM WILL PROVIDE THE UPR SUPPORT FOR SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERSTODAY...AND WITH DEEPENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...RICHATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD E NC WITH TD`S CONTINUING TOCLIMB THROUGH THE 60S TO AROUND 70. INGREDIENTS ARE COMINGTOGETHER TO PRODUCE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. NCARENSEMBLE SFC BASED CAPE VALS INDICATE 1000-1500 J/KG DEVELOPING BYTHIS AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM HELICITIES WILL BE IN THE 200 M2/S2 RANGETODAY...WITH MUCH OF THIS IN THE LOWEST 1KM. THE LOW LEVEL SHEARWILL BE REALIZED BY THE LOW LCL`S FCST. THIS COMBINATION OFFACTORS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...MAINLY THISAFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DEVELOPING INSTABILITY. -- End Changed Discussion -- And SPC hints at possible upgrade to slight risk later today for Carolinas A DIURNALLY MAXIMIZED CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE/BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND POSSIBLY VA THROUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK AND POTENTIALLY TEMPER UPDRAFT STRENGTH. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION WOULD BE AIDED BY THE SYNOPSIS-DESCRIBED LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED INCREASINGLY FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL SHEAR...WITH A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS/FAST-MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE AND A TORNADO RISK. PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD WARRANT A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREADCENTRAL NC FROM MID-MORNING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THESTRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TODAMAGING WIND GUSTS...OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. AN ADDITIONAL BANDOR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERNCAROLINAS LATER TODAY...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NC LATE THISAFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OFPRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 1110 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME LOCALLY STRONG OR SEVERE WITH THE MAIN WEATHER HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE TORNADO RISK EXISTS BASICALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. THE RISK FOR A STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL DIMINISH IN THE WEST BY 9 PM...AND IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BY MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Been quiet so far. Doesn't look like we'll get any storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY... ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG...HIGHEST IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THIS REGION ALSO WHERE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR (40-45KTS) AND STORM RELATIVE HELICITY (200 M2/S2) ARE MAXIMIZED. MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT PRECEDED BY A BAND OF SHOWERS LIFTING INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AT 1830Z. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG GUST OF WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AS THEY PROGRESS QUICKLY TO THE NE. FOCUS WILL SHIFT WEST-SW AFTER 21Z AS NEXT S/W TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE L/W TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE AIDED BY A 300JET LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...MODESTLY INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE IN OUR VICINITY. WHILE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ANEMIC...THE MODEST LIFT PROVIDED BY THE S/W INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD GENERATE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. CAM RADAR PRESENTATIONS SUGGEST BAND OF BROKEN CONVECTION WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME THEN ADVANCING EAST IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT-SANDHILLS BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...DISSIPATING OR WELL NE OF OUR REGION THEREAFTER. IF TIMING IS VERIFIED...CONVECTION WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC AFTER PRIME HEATING AND WHEN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE COMMENCES ITS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION. THUS... WHAT MEAGER INSTABILITY AVAILABLE EARLY THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE FURTHER DIMINISHED ONCE BETTER DYNAMICS ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING. THUS...WHILE THERE IS A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO THIS EVENING...BELIEVE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL CONSIST NOTHING MORE THAN BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SPORADIC WIND GUSTS 35-40KTS. WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FRO OUR REGION THIS EVENING...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO DIMINISH TO NEAR ZERO BY 03Z. SFC TROUGH WILL CROSS CENTRAL NC 06-12Z WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURRING SHORTLY THEREAFTER AS WEST-SW FLOW ADVECTS A DRIER AIR MASS. THE PARTIAL CLEARING WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG. THE THREAT FOR FOG APPEARS HIGHEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT INTO THE SANDHILLS. MIN TEMPS MID-UPPER 50S NW TO THE LOWER 60S EAST-SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Line forming up now, gonna have to watch itas helicities and LCL are good enough for some weak spin ups for sure especially east of the triangle......the cell that just passed Rockingham is bowing out a bit could get a warning soon.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 Yeah, they're issuing statements (Heavy rain, winds gusting to 40) on that line now that it's congealed into something more defined. It appears to be 2½-3 hours out from the Triangle area at current forward motion. We had some good clearing out right before sunset...that may enhance the activity - or it could be a non-factor given the time of day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 ...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF JOHNSTON...CUMBERLAND...WAYNE...HARNETT AND SAMPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT... AT 829 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LILLINGTON TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAYETTEVILLE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FAYETTEVILLE...GOLDSBORO...SMITHFIELD...CLINTON...LILLINGTON...FORT BRAGG...CLAYTON...DUNN...MOUNT OLIVE AND ANGIER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. DRIVERS ARE URGED TO SLOW DOWN AND USE EXTRA CAUTION TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Just south of Lillington there is some rotation trying to get going right where that little inflow notch formed..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 Best non-event I've had in recent months It rained. No wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Under a tornado watch here. Trees down apparently with one of the tornado warnings in Louisiana.Deja vu almost a week later. Same three watches. Tornado, Flash flood, and Coastal Flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 That line is still spitting out warnings --- currently 3 in Mississippi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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