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Texas/New Mexico/Louisiana/Mexico Obs And Discussion Thread Part 7

wxmx

By wxmx,
in Central/Western States

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DoctorMu

DoctorMu

Posted
Posted

Rain is looking spottier and spottier down here for today, and we're relying on the next impulse to really regenerate things tomorrow. We had maybe a brief shower since yesterday morning in Austin. Each time we've had a flood watch so far since I've gotten here the rain prospects diminished greatly from there.

 

Tomorrow could be a big day.

 

 

NAM_221_2015051212_F45_PCPIN_24_HR.png

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow could be sneaky

 

CE2mjTOUsAA09S7.png

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
906 PM CDT TUE MAY 12 2015

.UPDATE...
THE PRIMARY UPDATE TO THE GRIDS CONCERNS LOWERING POPS FOR TONIGHT
AS THE BULK OF THE FORCING WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. GENERALLY JUST LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
DID ADJUST LOWS TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS EITHER UP OR DOWN BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS IN TEMPS/CLOUDS/DEWPOINTS.

THE POP FORECAST FOR TOMORROW LOOKS GOOD WITH STRONG LIFT MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST WITH AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL. THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST...BUT INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL MOVE/TRAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

HOWEVER...AM BECOMING CONCERNED ABOUT A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
ORGANIZES BY MIDDAY. THIS SEVERE WEATHER RISK LOOKS NOTHING LIKE
ONE OF OUR CLASSIC SETUPS FOR SPRING AND THUS MAY BE FLYING UNDER
THE RADAR SO TO SPEAK. THE SETUP IS AKIN TO SOMETHING WE WOULD BE
CONCERNED WITH IN THE WINTER TIME WHERE WE WOULD WATCH FOR A
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC LOW-TOPPED HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS.
THERE WOULD BE VIRTUALLY NO LARGE HAIL THREAT IN THIS
SITUATION...MAINLY JUST A TORNADO POTENTIAL. THE SATURATED
PROFILE AND ABSENCE OF DRY AIR MEANS DOWNDRAFTS WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK...BUT WITH 850MB WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 50KT OUT OF THE
SOUTH BY SUNSET THIS THREAT CERTAINLY WILL STILL EXIST.

THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS WHETHER ENOUGH INSTABILITY
RETURNS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
UNLIKE MORE CLASSIC SPRING SEVERE WEATHER SETUPS...WE WONT NEED
MUCH INSTABILITY...500 TO 1000 J/KG WOULD BE PLENTY. ALSO UNLIKE
CLASSIC SETUPS DAYTIME HEATING IS NOT REQUIRED TO ATTAIN THIS
INSTABILITY. INSTEAD THE IMPORTANT SURFACE PARAMETER TO WATCH IS
THE DEWPOINT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. THE RICH AND SATURATED
AIRMASS MEANS LCLS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE GROUND AND PERHAPS
MORE IMPORTANTLY THIS MEANS CAPE VALUES FROM 0-3 KM MAY REACH
50-100 J/KG...PROVIDING THE MEANS FOR VORTICITY STRETCHING NEAR
THE SURFACE FOR TORNADOGENESIS. THERE IS ACTUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS...THAT 70+ DEWPOINTS WILL ARRIVE INTO THE CWA
SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONSIDERING DEWPOINTS ARE
ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
THEREFORE MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE RAP/NAM/3-KM WRF OF A FEW
HUNDRED TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE SURGING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY ARE PROBABLY LEGITIMATE.

IN SUMMARY...SHEAR PROFILES ARE DEFINITELY GOING TO BE VERY
IMPRESSIVE AND SINCE THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WHERE WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR ROTATING STORMS...IT IS PROBABLY BEST TO ADVERTISE THAT
THREAT NOW. THE REGION WE ARE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT FOR TORNADOES
IS THE REGION SOUTH OF I-20 AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FROM NOON
TO 9PM. WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR DEWPOINTS TOMORROW...AS
THEY WILL BE THE KEY TO THE SCOPE OF THE TORNADO THREAT.

TR.92

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

I guess I haven't been paying attention well. Is the rain being delayed? I thought it was supposed to be tonight into tomorrow. Now it seems like it's tomorrow morning into tomorrow night? Interesting update from DFW on tornadoes.

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Roy

Roy

Posted
Posted

The heavy rain event has been a non-event so far in North Texas, but starting to some heavier stuff moving north but at such a slow clip I don't see how anybody even gets an inch of rain above central TX. Seems like the back edge of the precip is already at Abilene, so I frankly question the rainfall forecasts. The Tech WRF is already way wrong in the band of heaviest rain....it's much further south than it portrays. But, both it and the HRRR fire up some stuff this afternoon just west of the metro. Will see.

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Chinook

Chinook

Posted
Posted

The heavy rain event has been a non-event so far in North Texas,

Some of the HRRR runs this morning have shown a streak of 2-3" near Dallas/Fort Worth. I think that area should expect over 1" as a conservative estimate. I hope you guys stay alright and away from the floods.

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Msalgado

Msalgado

Posted
Posted

I live in a town full of weenies. Reactions on Twitter make it seem like people have never seen rain before. :P

 

My cohorts facebook chat blows up.  What else can you expect from a group who's 3/4ths meteorologists.  The rain came down pretty hard for a bit but it didn't stop me from picking up some Feugo on the way home.

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bubba hotep

bubba hotep

Posted
Posted

This evening looks interesting out NW of DFW until things line out, wouldn't be surprised to see the Mod extended south to like 380?

 

Looks like some decent rain overnight and into tomorrow:

 

CFE5-jrUIAAegd8.png

 

The 00z Euro, Euro EPS and Weeklies say that there is no relief insight. Anyone see the 5/14 Weeklies... I35 might get washed into the Gulf :lol:

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