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E PA/NJ/DE/Oak Hill Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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If someone forecasts 3-6" for say Philly and another person forecasts 6-12" and exactly 6" falls, who is more accurate? I presume the forecaster with 3-6" is probabilistically closer but just wondering, thanks.

Technically I would consider them both equally accurate, both at the edge of their range.  However, perception would probably argue the 3-6" guy is more accurate.

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If someone forecasts 3-6" for say Philly and another person forecasts 6-12" and exactly 6" falls, who is more accurate? I presume the forecaster with 3-6" is probabilistically closer but just wondering, thanks.

I would definitely say the 3-6" forecaster because the actual snow amount verified closer to the mean (4.5 inches) of his forecast than the other guys mean (9 inches). Even so I would say both had good forecasts. 

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A few small piles of ice on the Delaware Bay this morning.  

 

DSC_0848_zpsj1t8pjmm.jpg

 

 

 

 

Technically I would consider them both equally accurate, both at the edge of their range.  However, perception would probably argue the 3-6" guy is more accurate.

 

 

Yeah, it just seems more accurate.  

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March 1993 blizzard always been my least favorite big storm. Waited ten years for a big one and it was gone in 48 hours

Most snow fell on the 13th.  The 14th, 15th and 16th still had decent snow cover at PHL.  It was mostly on the 17th when it rained an inch.  ABE held to some snow til the 23rd.

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Most snow fell on the 13th.  The 14th, 15th and 16th still had decent snow cover at PHL.  It was mostly on the 17th when it rained an inch.  ABE held to some snow til the 23rd.

 

The rain on the 17th didn't wash it all away north of the city, and then it got cold again the following day.  I remember roads being a skating rink the morning of the 18th with very cold temps.

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No, it wasn't.  It was quite cold for the next 4 to 5 days after the storm.  It lasted at least 6 days, probably 7 or 8.  The dynamics of that storm were fascinating.

 

Let us also not forget the 3" of sleet (on top) that added density to the snowpack (at least north of Media PA where I was at the time). Not a thing melted on Sunday (the day after).

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March snow and 40F don't go well together it's like snow in a greenhouse. The sun angle effect could be seen through the last two weeks with high temperatures in the teens and low 20's still melting the snow off man made surfaces. Now sleet is another story it puts up resistance. 4" sleet storm in March 2007 kept for close to two weeks.

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