IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 12z RGEM totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 15z SREF ticked wetter and northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Gem-Lam is much snowier then the entire 12z suite for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 there's instability above 750 mb. thundersleet is possible tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Advisory just issued from Albany. 2-6" of snow with up to .1" ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 there's instability above 750 mb. thundersleet is possible tomorrow night I have never seen that . 12z GEM LAM . This has to be sleet at KNYC and CNJ Precip maps say snow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I have never seen that . 12z GEM LAM . This has to be sleet at KNYC and CNJ Precip maps say snow, I saw it once in March of 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I saw it once in March of 2011 Cant remember what year it was. Could have been 2011. There was essentially a thunderstom while pouring sleet. Muliple falshes of lightning and thunder. It was pretty wild. And no, it wasnt hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Cant remember what year it was. Could have been 2011. There was essentially a thunderstom while pouring sleet. Muliple falshes of lightning and thunder. It was pretty wild. And no, it wasnt hail. I think it was towards the end of march of 2011 maybe the 24th. And yea it was like 30 degrees so i doubt it was hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I saw it once in March of 2011 There was some fairly extensive thundersleet in the Feb 2014 storm as the core of the ULL passed overhead. Where traditional sleet is simply a disappointment for all involved, thundersleet is the pinnacle of extreme winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Jan. 26, 2011 had multiple sleet and snow thunder strikes in the NYC metro area. At least 4 sleet ones and 5-6 snow ones in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Cant remember what year it was. Could have been 2011. There was essentially a thunderstom while pouring sleet. Muliple falshes of lightning and thunder. It was pretty wild. And no, it wasnt hail. there was widespread thundersleet in the nyc area during the late jan KU event right before the heaviest snow moved in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There was some fairly extensive thundersleet in the Feb 2014 storm as the core of the ULL passed overhead. Where traditional sleet is simply a disappointment for all involved, thundersleet is the pinnacle of extreme winter weather.If you're talking about Feb 2013, that was intense. I remember looking at a sounding and thinking about why it switched from snow to sleet. I read somewhere that all the lightning warmed upper levels enough to change the snow to sleet for a period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Christmas 2002 also had some thunder sleet right before the flip to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Jan. 26, 2011 had multiple sleet and snow thunder strikes in the NYC metro area. At least 4 sleet ones and 5-6 snow ones in Queens. I actually remember that as well. It was pretty awesome but i remember more the thundersnow than sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If you're talking about Feb 2013, that was intense. I remember looking at a sounding and thinking about why it switched from snow to sleet. I read somewhere that all the lightning warmed upper levels enough to change the snow to sleet for a period of time. I did mean Feb 2014, actually. Nemo was pretty lackluster up here—just under 11" of plain old snow, as I recall. That lightning theory seems a bit fantastic... any idea where you read it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 If you're talking about Feb 2013, that was intense. I remember looking at a sounding and thinking about why it switched from snow to sleet. I read somewhere that all the lightning warmed upper levels enough to change the snow to sleet for a period of time. I could see lightning melting snow which then refreezes into sleet, but I think the odds of that trace of sleet falling on a given location are only slightly better than the odds of the same location getting struck by lightning. Lightning is powerful stuff, but its a hot channel at most a few feet wide in the huge expanse of atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I could see lightning melting snow which then refreezes into sleet, but I think the odds of that trace of sleet falling on a given location are only slightly better than the odds of the same location getting struck by lightning. Any water, frozen or otherwise, would be instantly vaporized in the immediate vicinity of the lightning strike. Could indirectly help increase somebody's snowgrowth by an infinitesimal margin I suppose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I did mean Feb 2014, actually. Nemo was pretty lackluster up here—just under 11" of plain old snow, as I recall. That lightning theory seems a bit fantastic... any idea where you read it?I'm looking actually for it and I should have read your location before I made that comment apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 18z NAM has a lot of plain rain for the area. Nearing 0.75" LE through hr 36, mostly liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 The 18z NAM has a lot of plain rain for the area. Nearing 0.75" LE through hr 36, mostly liquid.Such a consistent model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 There was some fairly extensive thundersleet in the Feb 2014 storm as the core of the ULL passed overhead. Where traditional sleet is simply a disappointment for all involved, thundersleet is the pinnacle of extreme winter weather. During the Feb 2014 snow, I saw two distinct lightning flashes with thunder in southern Manhattan around 3 in the morning before in transitioned to a mix. Probably the heaviest snow I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Such a consistent model lol Well the scary part is that surface temps never get above 33-34, even at NYC. Meanwhile, 850's are +4 to +8C by hr 36 areawide. If the surface was a few degrees colder this would have been a prolific ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Well the scary part is that surface temps never get above 33-34, even at NYC. Meanwhile, 850's are +4 to +8C by hr 36 areawide. If the surface was a few degrees colder this would have been a prolific ice storm.Lets hope it's not a freezing rain storm. They can devastate an entire area in a matter of hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Most of the heavy precip falls between 00z and 06z with the BL just above freezing and torching mid-levels. Is this the storm where we pay the piper and get the major ice storm that we've pretty much managed to avoid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 I actually remember that as well. It was pretty awesome but i remember more the thundersnow than sleet There was a heavy thunder sleet storm right before we all flipped to whiteout heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Most of the heavy precip falls between 00z and 06z with the BL just above freezing and torching mid-levels. Is this the storm where we pay the piper and get the major ice storm that we've pretty much managed to avoid? Not unless the BL is in the 20's. It looks more like a cold rain than anything, which is good if you don't want a damaging ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Most of the heavy precip falls between 00z and 06z with the BL just above freezing and torching mid-levels. Is this the storm where we pay the piper and get the major ice storm that we've pretty much managed to avoid?Most freezing rain events kill themselves after awhile so to speak, they release latent heat with all the freezing and warm surface temps on their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2015 Share Posted March 2, 2015 Not unless the BL is in the 20's. It looks more like a cold rain than anything, which is good if you don't want a damaging ice event. Well my point is that the BL is probably too warm because that's been the case with just about every event this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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