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Possible snow->rain->snow? event, Tuesday-Thursday 3/3-5/2015


famartin

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OK, internet access is back so here's what I can see on the EC for other locales.  These are based on my interpretation of the QPF and thermal profiles based on 6-hour time intervals...so there's a little guesswork.

 

MPO ~0.33" as snow

ABE ~0.47" as snow

RDG ~0.52" as snow

TTN ~0.62" as snow

PHL ~0.74" as snow

ILG ~0.76" as snow

ACY ~0.65" as snow

GED ~0.50" as snow

Ray - is there any way when you do summaries like that that you might include a couple more locations in NJ, like maybe Newark, Morristown and Belmar, so we can get a bit more of NJ bracketed (EWR also covers NYC, really)?  Lots of NYC forum posters come to this forum for the less cluttered, higher quality posts, like yours.  Thanks...

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Ray - is there any way when you do summaries like that that you might include a couple more locations in NJ, like maybe Newark, Morristown and Belmar, so we can get a bit more of NJ bracketed (EWR also covers NYC, really)?  Lots of NYC forum posters come to this forum for the less cluttered, higher quality posts, like yours.  Thanks...

 

Flattery will get you everywhere, lol (but also true).

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Ray - is there any way when you do summaries like that that you might include a couple more locations in NJ, like maybe Newark, Morristown and Belmar, so we can get a bit more of NJ bracketed (EWR also covers NYC, really)?  Lots of NYC forum posters come to this forum for the less cluttered, higher quality posts, like yours.  Thanks...

Surely.  Same caveat applies:  These are based on my interpretation of the QPF and thermal profiles based on 6-hour time intervals...so there's a little guesswork.

 

MMU ~0.50" as snow

EWR ~0.51" as snow

BLM ~0.67" as snow

 

Flattery will get you everywhere, lol (but also true).

It will, at least if you want someone to do you a favor :P

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I've got one for you too Ray, regarding sleet. If I was more knowledgeable I'd look at soundings or skew-t's, but here goes: What would be the expected relationship be between surface temps and frozen precipitation during the changeover period? At what surface temps could we look for sleet, assuming it will cool off aloft before at the surface? Thanks!

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Surely.  Same caveat applies:  These are based on my interpretation of the QPF and thermal profiles based on 6-hour time intervals...so there's a little guesswork.

 

MMU ~0.50" as snow

EWR ~0.51" as snow

BLM ~0.67" as snow

 

It will, at least if you want someone to do you a favor :P

 

I agree, a little good will goes a long way.

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I've got one for you too Ray, regarding sleet. If I was more knowledgeable I'd look at soundings or skew-t's, but here goes: What would be the expected relationship be between surface temps and frozen precipitation during the changeover period? At what surface temps could we look for sleet, assuming it will cool off aloft before at the surface? Thanks!

Well, if it cools aloft all the way through the column, then you will go from rain to snow.  Sleet would mean that a layer of warm air remains aloft, as was expected with this system.  However, the most recent guidance has mostly done away with a significant cold layer beneath warmth during the changeover, opting more for an isothermal look as the entire column cools.  A small warm layer near 800 mb during changeover may be enough to get some sleet into the mix, but it probably won't last too long.  Surface temps only influence whether it makes it to the ground as sleet versus rain... if its saturated and in the 40s, it won't.  Usually during changeovers from rain to snow, you can get some sleet when temps fall to the upper 30s.  Once the column cools enough it goes to snow, and that is not directly related to the surface temp.

 

Confused yet? ;)

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Well, if it cools aloft all the way through the column, then you will go from rain to snow.  Sleet would mean that a layer of warm air remains aloft, as was expected with this system.  However, the most recent guidance has mostly done away with a significant cold layer beneath warmth during the changeover, opting more for an isothermal look as the entire column cools.  A small warm layer near 800 mb during changeover may be enough to get some sleet into the mix, but it probably won't last too long.  Surface temps only influence whether it makes it to the ground as sleet versus rain... if its saturated and in the 40s, it won't.  Usually during changeovers from rain to snow, you can get some sleet when temps fall to the upper 30s.  Once the column cools enough it goes to snow, and that is not directly related to the surface temp.

 

Confused yet? ;)

 

Yes, thanks, lol. I was thinking that since it looks like it will cool off at 850 mb before the surface, that we'd get sleet. But you're right, last winter on Feb. 3rd we got 5" of snow here with the surface temp. going from 36F to 33F and no lower (not saying that's the case here).

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