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Snow/ice/rain potential on Sunday/Monday, 3/1-2/2015


famartin

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Latest Wxsim with 6z data for NW Chester County has a brief period of IP/Snow changing to ZR pretty quickly and then the struggle to get the surface above 0c....unfortunately it does not manage to do so till 8am on Monday morning by which time 0.75" of w.e. has fallen. Also of interest in forecasts my snow cover to be all gone by Wednesday - today is the 36th consecutive day of snow depth greater than 1.0"

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This has the potential to be a pretty decent icing event N and W of the city. CAD signature showing up on all of the models. .25-.5 of mostly frz rain would not be good. GFS much warmer than the NAM right now and has a decent amount of plain rain as well at least for the majority of SE PA. Personally I think the cold air is most likely being underestimated as the theme of the season is weak and east-west. think we'll see this one trend colder/further south, but still think icing is the main threat.

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Anything for Sunday day? I am chaperoning our schools last ski trip to the Poconos. Our charter bus leaves early Sun am and comes back at night. The evening ride home is where I have concern. Thanks.

Yes, precip looks like it will arrive by midday in the Poconos, a bit later in the Delaware Valley, but it should be precipitating in most places by sun-down.

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Wxsim with 18z data continues the weaker/colder trend as the Met who cannot be named predicted although I can't say I see his significant snow somewhere in the NW burbs between PHL and NYC but here is the latest GFS/NAM view for NW Chester County PA for Sunday Eve into Monday

7pm moderate snow temp 30.5 (0.6" snow)

10pm Snow/IP mix temp 27.9 (2.1" snow)

1am IP/ZR temp 28.2

4am IP/ZR temp 28.9 (0.58" w.e.)

5am precip ends temp 29.4 (0.62" w.e. all frozen)

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Whether it's snow or freezing rain, my Monday morning first delivery isn't going to be fun. It's a really tight dock located on a narrow side street in Whitehall, PA. I have to go down a steep hill, hook a tight right turn, with a 53 ft trailer, just missing a telephone pole on the right side corner, then half blindsiding it into their dock. once almost in, I have to jacknife the tractor so I don't block off the street while they are unloading me. What is difficult on a nice day may be next to impossible if the roads are snowcovered or glazed over.

 

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Whether it's snow or freezing rain, my Monday morning first delivery isn't going to be fun. It's a really tight dock located on a narrow side street in Whitehall, PA. I have to go down a steep hill, hook a tight right turn, with a 53 ft trailer, just missing a telephone pole on the right side corner, then half blindsiding it into their dock. once almost in, I have to jacknife the tractor so I don't block off the street while they are unloading me. What is difficult on a nice day may be next to impossible if the roads are snowcovered or glazed over.

 

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And hopefully no one is parked in front of the white house on the corner, too close to the stop sign :-). Good luck!

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Whether it's snow or freezing rain, my Monday morning first delivery isn't going to be fun. It's a really tight dock located on a narrow side street in Whitehall, PA. I have to go down a steep hill, hook a tight right turn, with a 53 ft trailer, just missing a telephone pole on the right side corner, then half blindsiding it into their dock. once almost in, I have to jacknife the tractor so I don't block off the street while they are unloading me. What is difficult on a nice day may be next to impossible if the roads are snowcovered or glazed over.

 

attachicon.gifUntitled-1.jpg

 

Not that this helps but at least you get a chance to think over a strategy before attempting it? 

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And hopefully no one is parked in front of the white house on the corner, too close to the stop sign :-). Good luck!

 

Sometimes they are, especially for the first delivery at 7:00am. I have the 9:00am second delivery so there's a better chance it's open.

 

Not that this helps but at least you get a chance to think over a strategy before attempting it? 

 

I've been there twice before so I know what I need to do. Like I said though, that place is a PITA on a nice day. The frest snow and/or ice will be the challenge.

 

Ray, what's your take on this event? Over in the central PA forum, they're saying it has trended colder on the overnight runs. Looking at your last post, the NAM and the Caadian look snowier.

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Sometimes they are, especially for the first delivery at 7:00am. I have the 9:00am second delivery so there's a better chance it's open.

 

 

I've been there twice before so I know what I need to do. Like I said, that place is a PITA on a nice day. The frest snow and/or ice will be the challenge.

 

Ray, what's your take on this event? Over in the central PA forum, they're saying it has trended colder on the overnight runs. Looking at your last post, the NAM and the Caadian look snowier.

Yes they are a bit especially in your area.  That's more because of them both increasing QPF, not necessarily a shift in temperatures.

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