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2/25 event venting/whining/whatever thread


BullCityWx

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Temps are shooting up here. The late February sun is not impressed with the meager cloud coverage we have currently. If the clouds weren't forecast to thicken I'd say we could make a run at 50s.

 

I keep looking to the west for some clouds but the sun is kicking things into high gear.  I wonder if we hit 50F today...

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I haven't watched them - have they even admitted it might snow yet?  :ph34r:

 

Hah... after insisting all day yesterday it would be nothing but cold rain east of the mountains, they are now covering their bases and calling for somewhere in the neighborhood of 1-3" with the possibility of 8-10. Sounded to me like they were still hedging, and are not ready to give up on the rain. But I have to admit I was only paying partial attention.

 

Honestly I get most of my weather info from the folks on this board these days, at least when something potentially interesting might be coming. 

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I think these 12z runs are sealing the deal that accums will be impacted farther north and west than it looked earlier.  Every run is north some and west some and stronger.  Lots of sleet is coming.

 

The RGEM is a concern, the nice thing is we look to be over 1" QPF...this would probably be half snow and half sleet, so 5" of snow with 2" of sleet, LOL....That would be insane.

 

Edit:  The RGEM was a little warm with the mid-levels with last weeks event, it kept wanting to do half sleet and half freezing rain and we got all freezing rain.  If I could be anywhere right now it would be right along 85 between Burlington and Chapel Hill.

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I'm having shades of some storm from February 09 or 10 where we were forecast at least a couple inches of snow and got squat but some cold rain and about 23 sleet pellets. Riding the rain/snow line blows.

That said, yesterday's snow was awesome. Hate to see it get washed away but at least we saw some fall.

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The RGEM is a concern, the nice thing is we look to be over 1" QPF...this would probably be half snow and half sleet, so 5" of snow with 2" of sleet, LOL....That would be insane.

 

Edit:  The RGEM was a little warm with the mid-levels with last weeks event, it kept wanting to do half sleet and half freezing rain and we got all freezing rain.  If I could be anywhere right now it would be right along 85 between Burlington and Chapel Hill.

 

 

:snowing:

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The RGEM is a concern, the nice thing is we look to be over 1" QPF...this would probably be half snow and half sleet, so 5" of snow with 2" of sleet, LOL....That would be insane.

 

Edit:  The RGEM was a little warm with the mid-levels with last weeks event, it kept wanting to do half sleet and half freezing rain and we got all freezing rain.  If I could be anywhere right now it would be right along 85 between Burlington and Chapel Hill.

Yeah I feel like I may be a little NW of the jackpot zone. Then again, after being on the line with the last 2 big storms and getting a ton of sleet I don't mind having a little wiggle room this time. If I only get a few inches of pure snow then so be it.

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What do you think for Raleigh CR?  And what is the Fish going with?

Man, I honestly think Raleigh mixes quite a bit. I think we'll be very lucky to pick up 5". We are so right on the line (or at least on where we think the line is, according to the models). But if the storm continues to trend stronger, I think many more folks will mix. These strong storms have a way of injecting warm air in the mid levels that is not well modeled. So all of these snow maps, while nice to look at, aren't picking that process up. On the other hand, I could be being too pessimistic. I've just seen this happen a lot. It's way too close for comfort here.

WRAL was basically saying 1-3 on the low end and like 3-6 or 6-8 on the high end (if we stay all snow and get the robust QPF the models are showing). Haven't seen any updates from them that reflect a change in that thinking. They also said they felt the R/S line would set up between FAY and RAL. That was before the 12z models though. I would have to think that gets adjusted north.

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I'm getting sick about hearing from someone how we're going to have all thus snow not accumulating despite temperatures at freezing with cold soil temperatures AT NIGHT. MAN, it's hard not to lose it. If this was falling during the day in 33-34 degree temperatures like it is down in Alabama, then I'd agree, but it isn't.

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I'm getting sick about hearing from someone how we're going to have all thus snow not accumulating despite temperatures at freezing with cold soil temperatures AT NIGHT. MAN, it's hard not to lose it.

If the snow is coming down hard, it will have no problem accumulating. None whatsoever. Anybody that says anything otherwise has zero credibility and should be dismissed on anything else they have to say. If the snow comes down lightly or is mixed with rain, then yes, different story maybe.

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Yeah I feel like I may be a little NW of the jackpot zone. Then again, after being on the line with the last 2 big storms and getting a ton of sleet I don't mind having a little wiggle room this time. If I only get a few inches of pure snow then so be it.

I was thinking 3-6" for us, but now probably 4-8". Maybe even 6-10" if the short-range models are on point. The SREFs continue to look better, too.

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