nrgjeff Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As noted before system is similar to the big one last year. First I will compare and contrast. Then I will share why I favor the north track. Frankly I'm no longer wishing north because too much can go wrong in Chatty. Last year the sfc HP was stronger but this year the surface is colder. LY 850 low was a little father south but TY it is colder. LY 700/500 had more WAA but TY it is a little more of a slider; closing up more recent runs though. I'm afraid if it closes up any more the 850 low will be a little more north. That would be a problem for CHA and a snow killer for ATL. I have to agree with the northern side of the snow shield over achieving in Tenn. That is some low hanging fruit for beating NWP! If the comma head from the NAM verifies, Memphis and Nashville even look good. I'm concerned about boundary layer temps southern Tenn border south. Still heavy snow sticks above freezing. Track might depend on little sfc HP ridge Ohio Valley in wake of GL front overnight. GFS is stronger HP; hence more south on storm track. NAM is weaker HP; if it gets any weaker boundary layer could be a real problem for CHA. I'd rather be in TYS MRX or Kingsport models be damned. Don't know how terrain will work for JC but this could be another Kingsport goodie first half. JC should be fine for good snow back half. I'm down here worrying about Chatty and I will until 00Z runs keep CHA cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Since no one else will do it.... The last time I think I started a thread was the week before the August heat wave of 2007 so you get what you deserve if this storm busts.... And I moved Jeff's post over here now it looks like he started it...sorry Jeff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Since no one else will do it.... The last time I think I started a thread was the week before the August heat wave of 2007 so you get what you deserve if this storm busts.... Glad the one that cancelled winter started this thread for us. We owe you a debt of gratitude for kickstarting winter for us. Now with that said, after this (whatever that means), can you please get started on finding spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I figured I'd bring a few of the recent posts here from the other thread, feel free to add more. 12z NAM 24 hour total after storm #2: Robert: Here's the discussion Robert has to go with his map that Stove posted.WxSouthGeorgia and parts of Alabama, Tennessee and Virginia. The core of the big snowstorm tomorrow night is this zone.There will be a lot of problems on this event.1) Its a WET Snow.2) Its a FAST falling snow3) There could be Thunder Snow some areas of Carolinas in particular...Tree branches can take up to 6" of heavy wet snow, but its the RATE of fall that allows too much clumping that it can fall off in time, so the tree branches snap or trees topple . I found out in a similar upper low where 10" fell in 6 hours.I'm not sure of exact snow amounts anywhere, but A general 3 to 6" and 4 - to 8" storm is likely this zone, with some localized FOOT amounts of snow in NC , SC or VA. And it all happens in a very fast time frame.For specific cities, I'll have a breakdown of zones. But for Atlanta and Birmingham, it may start as rain or mix, then both should go to snow with heavy rates, but any further north movement will bisect these cities. The interior Carolinas are cold enough for mostly snow rain at coast, maybe ending as snow. Winds WONT be a problem with this storm, or ICE, but there could be sleet mixed in a narrow zone in middle Alabama to the Midlands SC .Check WxSouth.com For a breakdown of more maps . Since this is a HIGH IMPACT event I'll try to keep all my weather Fans and Subscribers alerted on this potentially Serious Event. 9z SREF total snow (includes some for the current storm):Amazing the trend on the SREF, plumes have consistently risen since early yesterday. TYS is up to a 5.5 mean for the Wednesday night storm! 12z Euro: 12z UKie, seems it's precip has ticked a tad north and west as well: Here are the latest SREF snowfall means:TRI:5.85"TYS:5.44"CHA:4.52"CSV: 5.83"BNA:4.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 MRX upped my snow chances from 20 percent to 80 percent Wednesday night but says only 1 inch accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 15z SREF snow mean: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 But the winter storm watch says 3-6 inches possible for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I noticed that the sref dumped the huge snow totals in east TN from 9z but inched back the three inch line a hair northwest. This looks a LOT like other guidance at this point. I guess the fly in the ointment will be if the low comes out a little "beefier" than modeling suggests and also any final 24 hour wiggles in the track. Looks like a fun little system for a large part of the state (per the sref) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Winter Storm Watch for East TN . . . TNZ013>016-036>039-068>070-VAZ001-002-005-250345-/O.CAN.KMRX.WW.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-150224T2100Z//O.EXB.KMRX.WS.A.0003.150225T2100Z-150226T1200Z/CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY231 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING......WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHTHURSDAY MORNING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.* EVENT...A FEW FLURRIES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. THEREFORE...THE SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. SNOW...OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY...IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.* TIMING...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL CONTINUE. WHEN TRAVELING...SLOW DOWN AND DRIVE WITH CAUTION. GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA ROOM BETWEEN YOU AND THE VEHICLE AHEAD OF YOU.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS. FUTURE DRIVINGCONDITIONS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THELATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 MRX update seems really confusing...they seem to mixing the remainder of the current wwa with the wsw for tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Winter Weather AdvisoryURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLETENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATESWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORESNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCURACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, WHERE 2TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AREAS FARTHER NORTH,INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA, MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWWITH THIS SYSTEM. TNZ008>011-027>034-056>066-075-077-078-080-250415-/O.NEW.KOHX.WW.Y.0003.150225T1800Z-150226T1200Z/SUMNER-MACON-CLAY-PICKETT-DAVIDSON-WILSON-TROUSDALE-SMITH-JACKSON-PUTNAM-OVERTON-FENTRESS-PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUTHERFORD-CANNON-DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-VAN BUREN-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALLATIN...LAFAYETTE...CELINA...BYRDSTOWN...NASHVILLE...LEBANON...MOUNT JULIET...HARTSVILLE...CARTHAGE...GAINESBORO...COOKEVILLE...LIVINGSTON...JAMESTOWN...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MURFREESBORO...WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHELBYVILLE...TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...SPENCER216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AMCST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO6 AM CST THURSDAY. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. * MAIN IMPACT...1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. * OTHER IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS MIDDLETENNESSEE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATESWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MORESNOWFALL ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCURACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, WHERE 2TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. AREAS FARTHER NORTH,INCLUDING THE NASHVILLE METRO AREA, MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWWITH THIS SYSTEM. TNZ079-093>095-250415-/O.NEW.KOHX.WS.W.0003.150225T1800Z-150226T1200Z/GRUNDY-WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTAMONT...WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI216 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM CSTTHURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO 6AM CST THURSDAY. * TIMING...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * MAIN IMPACT...2 TO 4 INCHES OF NEW SNOW ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z NAM a little less impressive than previous runs, still awesome for Chatt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GeneR4 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL1233 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2015...WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNINGUNTIL 3 AM THURSDAY MORNING FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MIDDLETENNESSEE......WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CSTTHURSDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HUNTSVILLE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AMWEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 3 AM CST THURSDAY...THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN ALABAMA: LAUDERDALE...COLBERT... FRANKLIN... LIMESTONE...LAWRENCE... MORGAN...CULLMAN... MADISON... MARSHALL... JACKSON...AND DEKALB COUNTIES.* ACCUMULATIONS...ON WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR NORTHERN ALABAMA COUNTIES NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER TO ALABAMA/TENNESSEE BORDER.* IMPACTS...WIDESPREAD TRAVEL PROBLEMS WILL BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.----------------------------------* TIMING AND AREAS AFFECTED...FROM 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY THROUGH 3 AM CST THURSDAY...THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE: LINCOLN...FRANKLIN AND MOORE COUNTIES.* ACCUMULATIONS...ON WEDNESDAY...SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.----------------------------------PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHERCONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOWARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN ANEMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...ANDWATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 MRX AFD: .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...ACCUMULATION SNOWFALL HASENDED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THOUGH A FEW POCKETS OFLIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANMOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS INTO THE EVENING. WILL SEE A BRIEF BREAK INTHE SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND MUCH OF WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALOW PRESSURE OVER TX THAT WILL TRACK THROUGH THE GULF STATES ANDBEGIN TO EFFECT THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE ON WEDNESDAY.DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK...THE INCOMING SYSTEM ISRATHER DIFFICULT. BY THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THE LOW BEGINSTO PULL IN SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO FAR SOUTHERNAREAS. DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE DAY...SNOWFALL WILLSLOWLY SPREAD NORTH FROM THE TN/GA STATE LINE. AT THIS TIME OF DAYSURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AND WHILE EXPECTPRECIP TO BE SNOW...THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ACCUMULATING LATE IN THEAFTERNOON IS IN QUESTION. BY 6 PM WEDNESDAY...CURRENT TRENDS SHOULDBRING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE BORDER WITH LITTLE TO NOACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TOWARD I40..LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS HAVE BEENTRENDING NORTH AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH DAMPENING UPPER LOW AS ITMOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUNDING LAYERPWAT VALUES VERY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR NEAR .75 IN. SURPRISEDTO SEE RELATIVELY LOW QPF ACROSS TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS ISTHE FLATTEST AND FASTEST WITH THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WHICH RESULTS INLOWER SNOW TOTALS OVER A SHORTER PERIOD. INITIALIZED GRIDS WITHHIGHER THAN MODEL DEPICTED QPF. LEANED TOWARD A MORE NORTHERLY ANDLONGER LASTING EVENT. REGARDLESS...SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD BE FAIRLYHIGH. CURRENT SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE NEAR SREF MEANS. THESE VALUES MAYBE STRETCHED UPWARD BY A FEW ROBUST OUTLAYERS BUT SEEM REASONABLEFOR THIS EVENT. MOS TEMPERATURE FORECASTS APPEAR TOO HIGH THROUGHTHE MID TERM. UNDERCUT THESE NUMBERS BY 3 TO 4 DEGREES INTO THEWEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNINGBUT SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHTHURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREAAS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ANDCENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MILD WARM UP BEGINS ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUESTHROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRINGA CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BY SUNDAY. DEPENDING ONTIMING...LOOKS TO START AS LIGHT SNOW BUT SWITCH TO LIGHT RAIN. WEAKLOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHFAIRLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO WARMTO ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I do find MRX's talk of PWAT being at .75, but QPF being so low interesting. I guess MRX is banking on ULL releasing that moisture based on their disco, hints their following closely with the SREF with 3-6" pretty much area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 The fact that the moisture is there and models have severely under performed on qpf this year probably means MRX has solid thinking here. We will know much more in the next 12 hours, MRX morning shift will need to issue warnings or advisories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z Hi-Res NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z RGEM: Really, really looks like the models want to add a northern component to this and turn the storm. You can see that bend as the precip runs off the coast. I think what is happening is that the models are struggling with how much to phase it. Probably had some data ingested that caused less of a phase. I still think that this has a bigger precip shield than shown. And it makes sense for a big storm to end this current cold stretch. Hopefully, we can get Chatt some snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Really, really looks like the models want to add a northern component to this and turn the storm. You can see that bend as the precip runs off the coast. I think what is happening is that the models are struggling with how much to phase it. Probably had some data ingested that caused less of a phase. I still think that this has a bigger precip shield than shown. And it makes sense for a big storm to end this current cold stretch. Hopefully, we can get Chatt some snow!!! I'd love 4 inches but would be content with a repeat of today lol. Let's get Nashville a few inches and Chatt/south a good dumping and call it a winter! My tomato seedlings are staring at me in the garage like "lolwut". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Winter Storm Warnings stretching all the way from east Texas to Charlotte. . . . except of course for MRX's CWA, where we don't even have any graphics up for the event. MRX was quick with the warnings for last week's events, but this week they are back to their old ways. I guess we get upgraded when it starts snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'd love 4 inches but would be content with a repeat of today lol. Let's get Nashville a few inches and Chatt/south a good dumping and call it a winter! My tomato seedlings are staring at me in the garage like "lolwut". I agree, but I have a strong feeling (and its not just the burrito I had for lunch) that area wide Chatt to Tri we'll see around 4 or 5 inches. Nash 2-3. I think we will see models jump back up on QPF on tonight 0Z and tomorrows 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I agree, but I have a strong feeling (and its not just the burrito I had for lunch) that area wide Chatt to Tri we'll see around 4 or 5 inches. Nash 2-3. I think we will see models jump back up on QPF on tonight 0Z and tomorrows 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I feel for the mets in Birmingham.They are right on the transition line down south for something big or next to nothing but rain.It could bust horribly for them if they make the wrong call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'd love 4 inches but would be content with a repeat of today lol. Let's get Nashville a few inches and Chatt/south a good dumping and call it a winter! My tomato seedlings are staring at me in the garage like "lolwut". Here! Here! Let's go out in style. Let's get a good snow for all and break for spring. Models are struggling with this one. 0z and even 12z will need to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not that it matters at this point probably, but the 12z Euro ensemble mean and control run both expand the precip westward to cover most of the eastern half of TN in 2+ inches. Say Savannah to Murfreesboro to Cookville north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The early SREF maps suggest that the heavier QPF is distributed across the southern portion of TN rather than the eastern part like the previous run: 21z: 15z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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