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Feb 25-26 Discussion/pbp


Wow

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I fired up the bus now that the ukie has spoken. Challenging pack to get on it again. He refused my last offer a week and half ago when I told him the shutout was gonna end. Now I'm willing to drive him to climo seasonal avg at RDU before 3/2. Bus will be pulling out soon so jump on why you can boys.

Sounds like the Ukie wasn't good for RDU. James said it was good for NW of Durham.

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Sounds like the Ukie wasn't good for RDU. James said it was good for NW of Durham.

 

It's hard to tell with the 6-hr panels, but RDU definitely still gets snow (RDU gets more than Raleigh, for that matter), but I'd definitely say there's mixing there.

 

Looks like it would presumably be all-snow from Shelby to south of Asheboro to Durham or so.

 

Recap:

 

Hr 102: Precip moves in.  Everyone from just north of CLT to south of Raleigh is snowing.

 

Hr 108: Crushjob for the I-85 corridor.  Snow for everyone N/W of Gastonia to Asheboro to just NW of RDU (the airport).

 

Hr 114: 850s gradually move southwards again and everyone from south of CLT to south of Raleigh probably ends as snow.

 

The clown has 6" for RDU and CLT, though I don't know how accurate the WB clown for the UKMET necessarily is.  GSO and Shelby show 8" with Boone at 9".  It's a pretty uniform 7-8" for the foothills and northwestern Piedmont.  The 6"+ also moves into extreme NW SC and extreme NE GA.

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It's hard to tell with the 6-hr panels, but RDU definitely still gets snow (RDU gets more than Raleigh, for that matter), but I'd definitely say there's mixing there.

 

Looks like it would presumably be all-snow from Shelby to south of Asheboro to Durham or so.

 

Close enough. Plenty of time for the finer details to change, too.

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Sounds like the Ukie wasn't good for RDU. James said it was good for NW of Durham.

 

LOL, I think he enjoys talking about how the models don't look favorable for RDU, but unfortunately for us it's usually never does.  The Ukie tracks it about perfectly, over the panhandle, then over SAV.  Verbatim 2m is right at 32-33 for RDU and 850's are between 0 to +1 when precip comes in and then drops as it passes.  The I-40 corridor in NC looks to do well.

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Sounds like the Ukie wasn't good for RDU. James said it was good for NW of Durham.

It's right there at it. Old saying if you want to see the biggest snows, you gotta be able to smell the rain. But remeber the others, weekend threat and wildcard Monday. Lot left to be worked out. It could go to pots, but big MO came back last week, and he's sitting right outside cis in Durham 10 Miles from RDU.
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LOL, I think he enjoys talking about how the models don't look favorable for RDU, but unfortunately for us it's usually never does.  The Ukie tracks it about perfectly, over the panhandle, then over SAV.  Verbatim 2m is right at 32-33 for RDU and 850's are between 0 to +1 when precip comes in and then drops as it passes.  The I-40 corridor in NC looks to do well.

 

LOL, Pack, we can't buy a decent storm around here without mixing aside from Christmas 2010, so rest assured we'll at least get sleet if anything happens. :lol:

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Imagine my surprise when I updated my grids from NWS MHX and saw this for Monday....and then Wed/Thurs

 

Monday--Rain, snow, and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Northeast wind 14 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible

 

Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Thursday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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From the NWS in Atlanta.

 

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BUSY PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH STILL SOME
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE MODELS. PRECIP WILL BE EXITING THE AREA
ON MONDAY BUT RETURN TO AT LEAST CENTRAL GEORGIA ON WEDNESDAY AS A
LOW TRACKS ACROSS FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE GFS CONFINES PRECIP TO THE ATL AREA AND SOUTHWARD BUT
THE ECMWF SPREADS IT FURTHER NORTHWARD. TRIED TO COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS SO DID INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AND GIVEN TEMPERATURES DID INCLUDE MENTION OF
RAIN/SNOW FOR NORTH GEORGIA. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
THOUGH SINCE THE GFS IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PRECIP AND WOULDNT
EVEN SUGGEST FROZEN PRECIP FOR NORTH GEORGIA.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...SFC RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/ATLANTIC REGION AND WEDGE BUILDS INTO GEORGIA. GFS IS
FASTER WITH RETURNING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE
WEDGE AND BRINGS PRECIP BACK IN ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF
SUGGESTS SATURDAY MORNING. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AGAIN FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SNOW/FREEZING RAIN.
AT THIS POINT HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT WITH THE
COLD TEMPS IN PLACE AT THE SFC FROM THE WEDGE AND THE WARMER AIR
COMING FROM THE GULF WITH THE SW FLOW...FREEZING RAIN IS A
POSSIBILITY.

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I'll add updated disco from NWS RAH....confidence increasing in the office it seems...

 

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 400 PM SATURDAY...

NWP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE WESTERN NOAM RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN THIS PERIOD...WHICH IN TURN WOULD RESULT IN A RELAXATION OF
THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. TO GET THERE...HOWEVER...AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT ULTIMATELY HELP BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE WILL TREK EASTWARD AND INTERACT WITH ONE MORE ARCTIC
PLUNGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR MID-LATE WEEK...AFTER A BRIEF "MILD-
UP" DAY INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S IN CENTRAL NC FOR WED.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF OVER THE SW
US...THEN SHEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US WED-THU...A PROCESS
THAT WILL ACTIVATE THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE SHORT TERM AND
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GOM TO
THE SE US COAST. NWP GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED WETTER WITH THIS
LOW...SUCH THAT A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER TEH SE RAH CWFA WAS
HARD TO AVOID FOR WED NIGHT...AND WHICH WOULD POSE A RISK OF
CHANGING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT IF PRECIPITATION LINGERS.

THE FINAL ARCTIC PLUNGE/SFC HIGH WOULD THEN FAVOR JUST COLD AND DRY
THU-FRI...FOLLOWED BY YET ONE MORE EPISODE OF CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
SE US COAST AND RESULTANT THREAT OF PRECIPITATION - SOME WINTRY -
BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.

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@D5 This looks like a classic Tallahassee to SVH/CHS slp track, 50-150 miles off ILM, cutoff out west fully ejects, short wave then attempts to go neg around the MS.  My guess is that a defined 850 forms in  N TX, then to central MS to ILM, could be the reason some guidance is hinting at a warm up out ahead of it without realizing we may have an I20 long tracker on our hands.  This is the main threat coming out of the next 168hrs, pretty certain. Dallas metro is going to have there hands full over the next 96. 

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@D5 This looks like a classic Tallahassee to SVH/CHS slp track, 50-150 miles off ILM, cutoff out west fully ejects, short wave then attempts to go neg around the MS. My guess is that a defined 850 forms in N TX, then to central MS to ILM, could be the reason some guidance is hinting at a warm up out ahead of it without realizing we may have an I20 long tracker on our hands. This is the main threat coming out of the next 168hrs, pretty certain. Dallas metro is going to have there hands full over the next 96.

DUDE! He's back! Just in time to help us reel this in.

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@D5 This looks like a classic Tallahassee to SVH/CHS slp track, 50-150 miles off ILM, cutoff out west fully ejects, short wave then attempts to go neg around the MS.  My guess is that a defined 850 forms in  N TX, then to central MS to ILM, could be the reason some guidance is hinting at a warm up out ahead of it without realizing we may have an I20 long tracker on our hands.  This is the main threat coming out of the next 168hrs, pretty certain. Dallas metro is going to have there hands full over the next 96. 

 

 

Was wondering if this threat was gonna actually prompt you to post......will eagerly await the book it post.....in the meantime you see MHX getting all bullish for Monday right.

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@D5 This looks like a classic Tallahassee to SVH/CHS slp track, 50-150 miles off ILM, cutoff out west fully ejects, short wave then attempts to go neg around the MS. My guess is that a defined 850 forms in N TX, then to central MS to ILM, could be the reason some guidance is hinting at a warm up out ahead of it without realizing we may have an I20 long tracker on our hands. This is the main threat coming out of the next 168hrs, pretty certain. Dallas metro is going to have there hands full over the next 96.

it's alive!
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Gsp disco

Tuesday night through Saturday/... at 230 PM EST Saturday...on Wednesday a broad and positively tilted upper trough will extend from eastern Canada to northern Mexico... with upper low over Quebec and the Southern Plains. The southern low fills and crosses the southeast by Thursday morning...while a shortwave crosses the southwest. The upper trough amplifies over the SW USA and NE Mexico as more shortwave energy moves into the area. By Saturday the trough starts to deamplify somewhat over the SW...but the models differ considerably on the timing of shortwaves rounding the trough. At the surface...on Tuesday night a cold front will move southeast and away from our area...reaching Florida by Wednesday morning. Surface waves moving along the front have the potential to spread precipitation well north of the boundary in isentropic upglide...but confidence is low that our area will be impacted. With cold high pressure over the area...wintry precipitation would be possible if the moisture cold reach this far north. Another cold front crosses our area from the northwest on Wednesday night...followed by a strong pressure gradient. Northwest flow snow showers are expected to set up behind this boundary. As the front reaches the Gulf Stream...surface waves moving along it may spread precipitation inland...but confidence is low that it would reach as far west as our area. By Friday high pressure spreads east to the central Appalachians... resulting in winds veering to the NE and ending northwest upslope flow snow. The surface front will be in Caribbean... keeping any isentropic upglide well S of US...however shortwaves rounding the upper trough may provide modest lift for snow showers. On Saturday the surface high reaches the East Coast...while the front to the south moves back north into central Florida. Isentropic upglide over the boundary would have a better chances of reaching our southern periphery...although confidence is limited that it would do so. Temperatures will run around 10 degrees below normal on Wednesday...cooling to almost 20 degrees below normal by Saturday

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MHX is bullish down here too... Updated our grids to 80% chance of rain and snow and added rain/snow for Thursday.

Imagine my surprise when I updated my grids from NWS MHX and saw this for Monday....and then Wed/Thurs

 

Monday--Rain, snow, and sleet likely before 1pm, then a chance of snow between 1pm and 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33. Northeast wind 14 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible

 

Wednesday Night A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

 

Thursday A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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