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Storm potential Tuesday 2/17/2015


famartin

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I tossed out 2-5 for Ewing yesterday morning, and so far I see no strong reason to change that. NAM probably is too wet but ratios could prop up some of the more lackluster QPF amounts.

I agree with this. Stunning that TTN hasn't topped a 5 inch storm all year. We have been too far West, too far south and now too far north. Interesting winter to say the least.

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Is the obs thread comin' out soon?

 

Eh, I think SREF is gonna bust high. 8 inches in Philly seems pretty unlikely, though, it would be a pleasant surprise. I liked the UKMET, gave me around 6 inches which I would appreciate since the highest I've seen this winter is probably 3 inches. Eh, UKMET was probably a little too wet though.

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ECM gives me near exactly what i need for climo normal winter snow 2.8" giddyup

really most of the models are pretty close for the PHL area anyway, when you see a tick from .36 to .31 that is just noise IMO.

 

I think 2-4 is a nice forecast for PHL, maybe closer to 4 in the southern parts.    like ray said, not hard to be the biggest snowfall for the season in PHL.  (although as usual the airport readings are a little deceiving, one year they were pretty much higher than everywhere else, and you dont have to stray very far this year from the airport to have had more than 1.5 inch in any event (for instance i was 10 miles north of the city this weekend and had about 3 inches)

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Taking everything into account, I'll say 1" to 2" of snow LV and Poconos, 2" to 3" in northern half of Chester, Bucks and Montgomery counties, and 3" to 4" in southern halves of those counties as well as Delaware and Philadelphia counties.  4" to 7" in southern NJ and Delaware.  For Ray, Trenton is in the 3" to 4" area.

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