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bluewave

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Thanks for the info Blue!

 

Ran some Hysplit backward trajectories last night after class, and I have to say I haven't seen a more favorable source region for potentially historic cold in the NE in quite some time. 

 

ScreenHunter_141%20Feb.%2010%2023.01.png

 

Thanks for posting that great chart. This looks like the most impressive Arctic outbreak in quite some time here. There

are going to be some good temperature drops behind the departing storm on Sunday into Monday. The record lows

for Sunday look too low to challenge for NYC/LGA/EWR. But the potential is there after midnight into the early hours

of Monday to get near the record low temperature range since the records will be higher than Sunday.

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That is the absolute perfect setup for cpk. Straight north source region. Bypassing the lakes like we haven't seen in numerous other outbreaks. Also funneling down the Hudson valley. This one looks legit to me

 

It's also impressive how late in the season that this potential is occurring compared to previous strong

Arctic outbreaks after 1979.

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the last time KNYC got down to zero with a positive AO was 1/19/1994 and 1/26/1994...

cold wave zero or lower...

17.....09.....1/14-16/2004.....ao was -4.387 on the 17th...
18.....02
24.....01
....................................................................
29.....06.....1/9-11/2004.....ao was -1.121 on the 9th...
15.....01
27.....07
........................................................................
42.....32.....1/25-27/1994.....ao was 1.005 on the 26th
32.....05
31.....00
.........................................................................
35.....04.....1/18-20/1994.....ao was 3.267 on the 21st...-1.805 on the 15th...
10......-2
15.....00
.......................................................................
23.....04.....1/20-22/1985.....ao was -6.226 on the 19th
09......-2
31.....09
..........................................
............................................................................
35.....19.....1/16-18/1982.....ao was 0.852 on the 17th...-1.300 on the 20th
19.....00
15.....00
..........................................................................
37.....20.....12/24-26/1980.....ao was 0.796 on the 26th
20......-1
23.....08
.............................................................................
13.....04.....2/17-19/1979.....ao was 0.732 on the 19th
17.....00
28.....17
.............................................................................
26.....07.....1/16-18/1977.....ao was -7.433 on the 15th
12......-2
13.....02
..........................................................................
28.....05.....1/22-24/1976.....ao was -3.262 on the 24th
15......-1
22.....14
.............................................................................
13.....02.....1/8-10/1968.....ao was -1.820 on the 9th
14......-1
17.....03
............................................................................
44.....25.....2/7-9/1963.....ao was -3.796 on the 7th...
25......-2
34.....11
.........................................................................
24.....03.....2/1-3/1961.....ao was 0.198 on the 2nd...
20......-2
28.....07
..........................................................................
23.....06.....1/14-16/1957.....ao was 2.183 on the 16th
12.....00
25.....11
........................................................................
28.....10.....2/2-4/1955.....ao was -2.472 on the 2nd...
17.....00
37.....08
.........................

the ao is plus today but falling...the forecast isn't encouraging if you're looking for a negative ao...1957 and 1994 had zero readings with an ao +2 or higher...

ao.sprd2.gif

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the last time KNYC got down to zero with a positive AO was 1/19/1994 and 1/26/1994...

cold wave zero or lower...

 

the ao is plus today but falling...the forecast isn't encouraging if you're looking for a negative ao...1957 and 1994 had zero readings with an ao +2 or higher...

 

 

Any lows of 5 degrees or under at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 isn't something that we have seen since 1987 and 1979.

 

Lows below 10 degrees at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 since 1979

 

2014...9

2003...8

1990...7

1987...4...7

1979...0...4

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Any lows of 5 degrees or under at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 isn't something that we have seen since 1987 and 1979.

Lows below 10 degrees at Central Park from 2/15-2/28 since 1979

2014...9

2003...8

1990...7

1987...4

1979...0...4

Hey bud can you tell me when was the last time nyc hit 0 or below?
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you think we'll beat it Sunday night? Assuming we get a nice 4-6 inch powder?

 

The only thing you can say 96-120 hrs out in time conservatively is that it will probably go below 5 degrees in NYC.

Any more specific calls will probably have to wait until the weekend when the details of the of the CAA behind

the departing storm come into better focus.

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The only thing you can say 96-120 hrs out in time conservatively is that it will probably go below 5 degrees in NYC.

Any more specific calls will probably have to wait until the weekend when the details of the of the CAA behind

the departing storm come into better focus.

sounds good thanks man keep up the good analysis
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If the avg. temp in Central Park Fri stays below 11F, it will be the coldest Feb day since 1979!  Sun is another candidate for this.

 

The current NWS forecast is for a daytime high of 14F and a low tonight of 6F.  The key will be getting the midnight temp down to around 15F.

 

Sun is another candidate for coldest Feb day since 1979.

 

The coldest Feb day in the last 80 years (since 1934) was 2/7/1958 with a mean temp of 8F.

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Will we get a wind chill warning?

I hope not that's one weather event I can do without. An advisory is bad enough

I still think Sunday has a good shot at 5 or less. Even though 850s have trended somewhat warmer on the models the source region hasn't changed. That's some dense cold funneling down the Hudson. Ideal for CPK and the zoo keeper can't screw it up!!!

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If the avg. temp in Central Park Fri stays below 11F, it will be the coldest Feb day since 1979!  Sun is another candidate for this.

 

The current NWS forecast is for a daytime high of 14F and a low tonight of 6F.  The key will be getting the midnight temp down to around 15F.

 

Sun is another candidate for coldest Feb day since 1979.

 

The coldest Feb day in the last 80 years (since 1934) was 2/7/1958 with a mean temp of 8F.

2/17/58...max of 10 and a min. of 3...2/16/03 had a max/min of 15/8...

coldest February cold waves...

.................

13.....04.....2/17-19/1979

17.....00

28.....17

44.....25.....2/7-9/1963

25......-2

34.....11

.........................................................................

24.....03.....2/1-3/1961

20......-2

28.....07

..........................................................................

........................................................................

28.....10.....2/2-4/1955

17.....00

37.....08

........................................................................

.........................................................................

30.....05.....2/14-16/1943

08......-8

22.....04

..........................................................................

...........................................................................

......................

21......-7.....2/8-10/1934

08....-15

26......-2

.........................................................................

30.....05.....2/16-18/1922

17......-2

34.....08

...............

31.....00.....2/4-6/1918

04......-6

38.....01

...........................................................................

23.....08.....2/11-13/1917

12.....03

24.....00

............................................

21.....02.....2/11-13/1914

10......-3

26......-1

...............................................

.........................................

26.....12.....2/9-11/1912

13.....00

21......-1

..............................................

11......-2.....2/9-13/1899

07......-6

09......-2

09.....04

11.....06

..............................................

44.....06.....2/16-18/1896

07......-5

26.....01

.....................................................................

11.....00.....2/5-8/1895

10......-4

13.....06

08.....02

.............................................

12.....00.....2/4-6/1886

07......-4.....

20.....03.....

...............................................

21.....03.....2/1-3/1881

09......-3.....

18.....01

.......................................

 

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this year could become the first year since 1978 with a Jan/Feb both averaging below 30.0...the coldest February's since 1918 with monthly snowfall added...

1934...19.9...27.9"

1979...25.5...20.1"

1936...25.7...10.3"

1923...26.2...18.8"

1978...27.2...23.0"

1958...27.4...10.7"

2007...28.2.....3.8"

1963...28.3.....3.7"

1920...28.5...25.3"

1924...28.9...11.9"

1968...28.9.....1.1"

1967...29.2...23.6"

1926...29.2...26.3"

1947...29.3...17.7"

1942...29.7.....1.9"

2015...27.8.....3.7" as of 2/11

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