SACRUS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 1/29 00z Summary for Sun (2/1) - Mon (2/2) storm timing sun night into mon afternoon NYC / QPF NAM : not in range GFS: 0.50 - 0.75 GGEM: 0.75 - 1.20 (estimate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The clipper bombs out too much or not enough, I did not look closely but at a glance I think the 00Z runs so far have not blown the clipper up quite as much, so that may have decreased the confluence...also the timing of the disturbance in the SW, really alot can go wrong, more likely though a miss than a cutter I think at this point. I don't think it has so much to do with the preceding clipper. The 18z GFS was just very flat with the shortwave trof through the northern US and swinging towards the Ohio Valley. The 0z is much stronger and sharper with the s/w. The wave spacing looks favorable to me and confluence does not look overwhelming (even on the 18z GFS). I think the "strength" of the energy diving down from Canada will determine is this is a rainer or a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Can you elaborate on 1966 . I agree with Anthony ratios will be great. Could easily beat last weeks storm in the city. Eastern LI could be looking at a snow pack usually not seen outside of the north woods of Maine. I don't want to break out the jump to conclusions mat however. A nice 6" event gets me extra money without being stuck in the city A blizzard occurred with temps in the single digits. It was a very cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 1/29 00z Summary for Sun (2/1) - Mon (2/2) storm timing sun night into mon afternoon NYC / QPF NAM : not in range GFS: 0.50 - 0.75 GGEM: 0.75 - 1.20 (estimate) The NAM is out of its range, but even as early as 72hrs it has a sharper and higher amplitude trof than the 0z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A blizzard occurred with temps in the single digits. It was a very cold storm. the Kennedy inaugural Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 this is the area we need to work out for us this Atlantic HP location is somewhat fragile ATM --- small drifts east and things get sticky http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_atlantic_099_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=atlantic&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=099&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150129+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=23&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GEFS look good. Ukie looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 the Kennedy inaugural That was 1961. The cold 1966 blizzard hit the MA hard. Up this way, we got into the warm sector (snow to rain). I'm sure it would be a bad memory if I could remember it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 GFS has a temp of 10 with heavy snow on Monday. This will likely change 100 times, however; historically, when it's this cold the storms are usually suppressed to the south. I highly doubt we have anything more than flurries on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The trof axis looks to set up pretty far west. It's easy to see how a strong s/w over the central US on Sunday could lead to ptype issues on monday. Tricky balancing act with the strength and amplitude of the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 How is NJ and Philly looking for this event? I feel for them since they got screwed in the last storm, I hope they get 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 That was 1961. The cold 1966 blizzard hit the MA hard. Up this way, we got into the warm sector (snow to rain). I'm sure it would be a bad memory if I could remember it. man I read that as 61 not 66 my bad. Showing my age but I remember both - back in Brooklyn. UKIE not out on the usual sources but the global maps seem ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This will likely change 100 times, however; historically, when it's this cold the storms are usually suppressed to the south. I highly doubt we have anything more than flurries on Monday. This is conjecture and belongs in banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 This will likely change 100 times, however; historically, when it's this cold the storms are usually suppressed to the south. I highly doubt we have anything more than flurries on Monday. We have seen snow with temps in the teens. How can you say anything with certainty 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason215 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 A blizzard occurred with temps in the single digits. It was a very cold storm. Ok where do I sign? I think we had 2 blizzard warnings last winter. At least 1 of them had temps around 7* if my memory serves me correctly. And another single digit storm. These are very rare indeed. We can add this in as a new feature to our new climate since 2000. Single digit blizzards. PDII was the coldest 20"+ blizzard that I can remember. -Jason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 How is NJ and Philly looking for this event? I feel for them since they got screwed in the last storm, I hope they get 12+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Includes 1-3" from clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Taken verbatim this is your typical 6-10" storm with locally higher amounts. Perhaps up to as much as 18". Should be a fairly fast mover that will come in hot and heavy for maybe 4-6 hours and then wind down. If that secondary does indeed form we're going to need something to slow it down so that it has time to mature over the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Man if we get the EURO on board tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 The low really bombs out as well, if we could somehow get this thing to slow down it could be much better. The NAO appears to be heading slightly negative around that time, hopefully it can jam it up enough. Verbatim, it's still a really powerful thump of heavy, wet snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Euro time... Staying up more nights... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Taken verbatim this is your typical 6-10" storm with locally higher amounts. Perhaps up to as much as 18". Should be a fairly fast mover that will come in hot and heavy for maybe 4-6 hours and then wind down. If that secondary does indeed form we're going to need something to slow it down so that it has time to mature over the area. Sign me up, this depiction is fine, transfer can be tricky and it will be interesting to see how the new GFS handles miller B systems, after much criticism it wasn't too bad Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Man if we get the EURO on board tonight... I would be surprised if it didn't, this is a pretty good setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 My EURO stuck at 15 hours on stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Anything on the Euro? I'm at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 EURO isn't going to end up as nearly amped as the GFS or the GGEM. Wouldn't it be hilarious if this time around all the models show a snowstorm and the EURO is the one not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Everyone just gave up on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 crickets. Everyone just gave up on the Euro? The euro is flat and south of our area. 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2015012900/ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png Euro -Ens is west of the OP run euro solutions are the eastern outliers ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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