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Amateur Predictions Thread for 1/27/15 Snowpocalypse


jm1220

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I guess I'll get this started. 

 

Right now I'll go 18-24" for most, except 24-30"+ from the Sagtikos Parkway east, 10-18" from I-287 west and from Trenton southwest, and then probably significantly less west of the Delaware River. Somewhere's going to have a hellacious cutoff and won't be happy. 

 

I'm keeping it under 2 feet for now for NYC given the uncertainty provided by the GGEM and GFS, which would fringe the city. The Euro is obviously more than this, and if the other models trend the Euro's way tonight, NYC could come very close to a record event. 

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I guess I'll get this started. 

 

Right now I'll go 18-24" for most, except 24-30"+ from the Sagtikos Parkway east, 10-18" from I-287 west and from Trenton southwest, and then probably significantly less west of the Delaware River. Somewhere's going to have a hellacious cutoff and won't be happy. 

 

I'm keeping it under 2 feet for now for NYC given the uncertainty provided by the GGEM and GFS, which would fringe the city. The Euro is obviously more than this, and if the other models trend the Euro's way tonight, NYC could come very close to a record event. 

I am going with the Euro.  24-30" in the city.  36" out on LI.

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So, personally I do not think the Euro will CAVE, because I do not consider adjusting a bit to the east CAVING.....It was the model that basically brought this system from the ground up, and respect must be given. I do think that the GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM, etc will come west a bit at 00z and maybe even more at 12z, however I do think the euro will make quite a shift east.....If not at 00z, then at 12z tomorrow to reflect the changes.....Thinking this will still be a major winter storm and one of the biggest we've had in quite some time. For some areas, I do feel that it will be record breaking. The NWS's widespread 24-36 inches is quite simply overdone, in my humble opinion. 18-24" would have been a better bet (for accuracy's sake, not safety's sake - so I do understand why they put the amounts that they did) and still might be a bit too high, especially for western parts of the watch area

 

This one, i'm going for :

 

NW NJ far NW suburbs into parts of the LHV : 10-14" with amounts up to 18"

NE NJ/southern areas including monmouth county/NYC/W-LI and some northern suburbs : 12-16" with amounts up to 20"

C-LI & E-LI : 16-25" with amounts up to 32"

 

This is only for our area, and for a jackpot total storm total including all locations.....I'd have say 37", somewhere in SNE of course

 

Good luck everyone !!!!!

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So, personally I do not think the Euro will CAVE, because I do not consider adjusting a bit to the east CAVING.....It was the model that basically brought this system from the ground up, and respect must be given. I do think that the GFS/NAM/RGEM/GGEM, etc will come west a bit at 00z and maybe even more at 12z, however I do think the euro will make quite a shift east.....If not at 00z, then at 12z tomorrow to reflect the changes.....Thinking this will still be a major winter storm and one of the biggest we've had in quite some time. For some areas, I do feel that it will be record breaking. The NWS's widespread 24-36 inches is quite simply overdone, in my humble opinion. 18-24" would have been a better bet (for accuracy's sake, not safety's sake - so I do understand why they put the amounts that they did) and still might be a bit too high, especially for western parts of the watch area

 

This one, i'm going for :

 

NW NJ far NW suburbs into parts of the LHV : 10-14" with amounts up to 18"

NE NJ/southern areas including monmouth county/NYC/W-LI and some northern suburbs : 12-16" with amounts up to 20"

C-LI & E-LI : 16-25" with amounts up to 32"

 

This is only for our area, and for a jackpot total storm total including all locations.....I'd have say 37", somewhere in SNE of course

 

Good luck everyone !!!!!

 

Real solid there.  I can't disagree with it.  This kind of setup suggests NE NJ will likely do pretty well vis-a-vis the rest of the state.

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I also think the ludicrous totals being put out by some of the models are over done, by perhaps 8-10". I think parts of middle Suffolk County could see 20-24". I think the winds will keep totals at that level but drifting may very well be a significant issue. Quite a bit of the power system in Suffolk was rebuilt or replaced after Sandy so coupled with the dry type snow that should fall I don't think we see the extreme outages we had with Sandy.

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I also think the ludicrous totals being put out by some of the models are over done, by perhaps 8-10". I think parts of middle Suffolk County could see 20-24". I think the winds will keep totals at that level but drifting may very well be a significant issue. Quite a bit of the power system in Suffolk was rebuilt or replaced after Sandy so coupled with the dry type snow that should fall I don't think we see the extreme outages we had with Sandy.

You're right about the power. Its winter so no leaves on the trees that are left. Even if we do see gusts to 70 I think power will be fine . The drifts however will be epic!

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