Ji Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro prob a step back around here.how is that possible. It's given us nothing all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro is crushing NYC-BOS, not much for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Euro is crushing NYC-BOS, not much for us. compared to 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 compared to 12Z? Even less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 how is that possible. It's given us nothing all week well it's starting to take away the phantom back edge hope.. like we do that here anyway. i'd imagine the whole western edge is going to run into worries the next day or so.. the old runs were silly.. can't believe nws around NYC bought it full on. SNE maybe.. that PHL to NYC corridor is quite low confidence IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Even less odd considering other guidance seemed to be removing the dry slot around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it's not crushing the city. Long island gets smashed. The city gets a nice storm.Wrong. NYC got crushed in that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DC looks like around 0.17" or so, even split between now and 7pm tomorrow, and after 7pm tomorrow. It also has the band where the other models have it. I feel ok, given my super low expectations...If I can somehow sneak in .10" after 7pm, maybe I can get my 1.25"...if I am lucky, more....if I am unlucky...less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wrong. NYC got crushed in that run. it's still a huge hit but it shrunk the western bullseye and the western edge shifted pretty strongly. track was similar though. certainly not a cave but not nearly as emphatic on the western side. not hard to imagine that dampening further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Checking some data and nowcasting obs and I'll have my final numbers in 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it's still a huge hit but it shrunk the western bullseye and the western edge shifted pretty strongly. track was similar though. certainly not a cave but not nearly as emphatic on the western side. not hard to imagine that dampening further. Agreed, especially considering how all the other guidance looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 it's still a huge hit but it shrunk the western bullseye and the western edge shifted pretty strongly. track was similar though. certainly not a cave but not nearly as emphatic on the western side. not hard to imagine that dampening further.gfs Nam ggem Ukmet say no to nyc. Euro that good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 gfs Nam ggem Ukmet say no to nyc. Euro that good? of course it is that good....It might not get the back edge precise, but this progressive idea the other models had is going to be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wrong. NYC got crushed in that run. Yeah. I screwed that one up. I saw the smaller precipitation field on yhe west side and thought it missed the city. Good for new york. Wish I was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 DC looks like around 0.17" or so, even split between now and 7pm tomorrow, and after 7pm tomorrow. It also has the band where the other models have it. I feel ok, given my super low expectations...If I can somehow sneak in .10" after 7pm, maybe I can get my 1.25"...if I am lucky, more....if I am unlucky...less Band of .1" in 6 hrs moved from reaching western edge of bay to east of eastern edge of bay. I don't think this was a very good run at all. Miller Bs usually end up underperforming compared to models especially early IMO. I think we're close to the nail in the coffin.. which MN Transplant has been trying to knock in with a tiny hammer since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 gfs Nam ggem Ukmet say no to nyc. Euro that good? I think it's silly to totally toss the GFS if nothing else. A blend is usually your best bet. I still doubt the widespread high totals shown on the Euro esp the western bullseye. The other is WAA driven and is consistent across guidance. There is a certainty issue west at the very least.. enough not to have your low end be a top 3 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 This is what I should forecast, all things considered. DCA:0.0 BWI:0.4 IAD: 1.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Band of .1" in 6 hrs moved from reaching western edge of bay to east of eastern edge of bay. I don't think this was a very good run at all. Miller Bs usually end up underperforming compared to models especially early IMO. I think we're close to the nail in the coffin.. which MN Transplant has been trying to knock in with a tiny hammer since yesterday. I don't think our precip tomorrow night is really associated with the coastal backing up, but rather coastal influenced..every model has that band over Loudoun, even the euro (you can't really see it on SV, but I see it on other maps)...It is really the same run as it has been for us...same as last night, a little less than 12z....I never really counted on that extra precip from true wraparound, though it looks like we may still get some --SN or flurries from it...No question it isn't a good run. I am way past expecting anything good....it does throw enough precip into cold air to get us in inch, if it comes to fruition. We could get completely screwed, but I feel better knowing there is enhancement to the west versus needing the coastal to back in for us to get anything. Of course we could get caught in between and virtually dry slotted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 This is what I should forecast, all things considered. DCA:0.0 BWI:0.4 IAD: 1.5 I'll take the over on IAD for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I'll take the over on IAD for sure.... I figure it would seem like a boom if we set the bar about as low as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I figure it would seem like a boom if we set the bar about as low as possible. true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Can we pretend the RAP is correct at 18hrs? It's got nearly 6 inches on the ground with a heavy band parked between DC and B-more. I like the GFS depiction this eve. Shows the Norlun trough feature and Snow development. Likely to be a sloppy evening commute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I like the GFS depiction this eve. Shows the Norlun trough feature and Snow development. Likely to be a sloppy evening commute I have been following LWX pretty closely and they have really held on to the 3-6 idea for much of central MD while much of the guidance has really been pointing to a .3 total QPF over 36 hours type event. And if you read their discussion it seems as though they they are basing their forecast more on human experience/ knowledge. If it pans out.. I will bow down to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I have been following LWX pretty closely and they have really held on to the 3-6 idea for much of central MD while much of the guidance has really been pointing to a .3 total QPF over 36 hours type event. And if you read their discussion it seems as though they they are basing their forecast more on human experience/ knowledge. If it pans out.. I will bow down to them. Which discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Which discussion? The Forecast Discussions from earlier this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 NAM looking good for leesburg, maybe even IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Back to the proper thread. NAM has precip back in the area at 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Let's just pin this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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