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1/27 Winter Storm - Round 3 - Discussion Thread


Heisy

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Completely different setup with this one since we have a cold air source. GFS is just a touch north for the perfect super clipper gaining strength and slowing at the coast scenario for SEPA. ECM was suppressed too much, ultimately I think we want a weaker storm Saturday to avoid it going south.

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but it did move north like the GFS, trend doesn't give you a warm & fuzzy ATM

Double low structure so it remains strung out. GFS has the hot hand i like at least a 2-4" for Monday if it remains weak and higher amounts if we have a consolidated storm like the GFS but the ECM track. But yeah complications galore this winter loves them

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I could be wrong but I think it's better that it passes a little to our south as opposed to right over PA.

No you are right you always want it south. Another good track this run, it's like the first clipper of the month that dumped 4" north of DC only this time Philly and burbs possibly closer to 6"

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6z NAM just poo-poo'd on Monday.  

 

Don't look now.. but the 6z GFS is going in the opposite direction... better then 0z 

 

Verbatim it's about 6" or more for SEPA and SNJ....

 

The NAM is not accurate at this range... and the GFS is better with the northern stream... 

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Don't look now.. but the 6z GFS is going in the opposite direction... better then 0z 

 

Verbatim it's about 6" or more for SEPA and SNJ....

 

The NAM is not accurate at this range... and the GFS is better with the northern stream... 

 

 

yea, that was a surprise.  GFS bringin in the TP.

 

NAM was good at catching tonight's storm early tho.  And who knows, it might swing back at 12z.  (for Monday's) 

 

We def need ECM to come aboard though.   It's been swimmin with the fishies for awhile now. 

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yea, that was a surprise.  GFS bringin in the TP.

 

NAM was good at catching tonight's storm early tho.  And who knows, it might swing back at 12z.  (for Monday's) 

 

We def need ECM to come aboard though.   It's been swimmin with the fishies for awhile now. 

 

While EURO was obv just a light snow event, it was very close to spinning up something bigger. If the 12z GFS comes in weak I will give up, but if the GFS holds at 12z I might expect the EURO to jump on board.

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While EURO was obv just a light snow event, it was very close to spinning up something bigger. If the 12z GFS comes in weak I will give up, but if the GFS holds at 12z I might expect the EURO to jump on board.

 

I'll be ready to toss the euro if just the 12z NAM comes back aboard.  When NAM and GFS are strong together with the same solution .... 9 times out of 10...the ECM slowly migrates over.   (or ends up being clueless throughout)

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